It's an age-old debate. You're the manager in a baseball game where the losing skipper leaves town, shaves his head, and loses his mask, and you need to decide who to put on the mound. My friend Nate and I were talking about this, and it motivated me to come up with a list of the top ten guys I'd ask to pitch for me in such a dire situation. Mind you, this is not a list of the top-ten pitchers of all-time. This is a list of guys who, at their peaks, were nearly unhittable in big games and pressure-packed situations.
#10: Steve Carlton. Very few pitchers have ever been as dominant for as long as he was. He never had a reputation as a stellar big-game pitcher, but he was on pretty bad teams for a while, and when the 1980 Phillies won that year's Fall Classic, Lefty went 3-0 in the postseason with a 2.30 ERA. Add in that he struck out 17 hitters in 15 World Series innings that year, and he makes the list.
#9: Dave Stewart. Here's a guy who's gotten lost in the shuffle despite being one of the game's dominant hurlers for the Oakland A's in the early-90's. He won 20 or more games in four consecutive seasons, and his form carried over into October, where he went 10-6 in the postseason. He was never a great strikeout guy, but in 133 playoff innings, he allowed a mere 147 baserunners. That's a 1.11 WHIP right there. You bet he's in consideration.
#8: Randy Johnson. Some will say he should be higher, but I have reservations. In 2001, he was obviously brilliant in winning that year's Fall Classic. In 1995, he helped Seattle come back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALDS to beat the Yankees. However, he's had some TERRIBLE postseasons, too. At his peak, he's probably the most intimidating lefty of all-time, but the inconsistencies would bother me too much.
#7: Jim Palmer. Those Baltimore clubs he played on in the 60's, 70's, and 80's were scary good, and Palmer made the most out of the chance to pitch in the spotlight. In fifteen postseason starts, he went 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA. His control wasn't spectacular (50 walks in 124 innings), but he mixed his pitches extremely well.
#6: Whitey Ford. Historically renowned as a tremendous postseason pitcher, Ford's 2.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP numbers are impressive. He moves down a few notches thanks to his last two WS performances not being great (combined: 0-3, 11 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings), but he's still the type of consistent pitcher you want on the hill in a big spot.
#5: Lefty Grove. My nod to the old days, Grove pitched in three straight World Series from 1929 to 1931. His marks: 4-2, 1.75 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and two saves. He won more than twenty games eight times in his career, and led the majors in strikeouts for SEVEN STRAIGHT SEASONS. Awe-inspiring numbers, and if he'd pitched a few more playoff series, I'm sure he'd be much higher on this list.
#4: Bob Gibson. The top four are so close to each other. Gibson gets the short end of the stick, though, due to his only pitching three playoff series over the years. His marks were fantastic (7-2, 92 strikeouts in 81 innings), but he was aided by some great lineups, which my top three were sometimes not.
#3: John Smoltz. In doing research for this list, it jumped out at me that the Braves REALLY skated through the NL without much of a lineup in the 1990's. Greg Maddux, a first-ballot HOF'er to be sure, went 2-3 in the World Series despite a career WHIP of 0.91. Smoltz had no such problems, which is why he makes the list and Maddux and Glavine don't. He went 15-4 over 24 playoff series, and his other numbers are sterling.
#2: Curt Schilling. Two words: Bloody. Sock. Need more proof of how good he was in big spots? 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 133 innings, 120 strikeouts. People are debating whether or not he's a HOF'er, but I think he gets in based on these numbers.
#1: Sandy Koufax. How Koufax went 4-3 in the playoffs is a mystery until you realize that the Dodgers weren't exactly hitting covers off the balls. One two-series stretch is enough for me. In 1963 and 1965, Koufax pitched 42 innings in the World Series. He allowed 25 hits, 4 earned runs, and struck out 42 batters while going 4-1. At their peaks, nobody else has ever been better.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Sunday, August 2, 2009
"Funny" People?
Saw "Funny People" today. With its all-star cast of Adam Sandler, Seth Rogan, and other Judd Apatow staples, I expected a very good movie. It came, but with a few hitches.
Adam Sandler was funny in a movie for the first time since "Anger Management." After several bombs, this was an attempt to regain relevance, and he was quite good. Rogan was bumped to a secondary role, but he handled it with grace, and his interactions with supporting actors like Jonah Hill brought belly laughs to the theater.
The main focus, though, was on Sandler's character struggling with the hand he dealt himself throughout life. There were many times where he played the role of battered douchebag well, and a few other times where we were reminded that this was the same actor whose performances in movies like "Spanglish" drew laughs for the wrong reasons. Still, for the most part, he delivered a great performance.
The main problem I had with this movie was that it was WAY too long. It clocks in at 2 hours and 16 minutes, and there's a reason most comedies don't go much longer than an hour and a half. They simply lose steam, and while there were numerous subplots that beefed up the length of "Funny People," I felt the movie could have been half an hour shorter very easily. Was it hurt by the added length? Not too much, but it surely wasn't helped.
Still, it lives up to the hype. Adam Sandler catches a second wind in his career, while Apatow and his favorite actors do their best to beef up the movie. You'll see where it drags, but there are plenty of laughs to keep you interested, for the most part. RATING: ***3/4
Adam Sandler was funny in a movie for the first time since "Anger Management." After several bombs, this was an attempt to regain relevance, and he was quite good. Rogan was bumped to a secondary role, but he handled it with grace, and his interactions with supporting actors like Jonah Hill brought belly laughs to the theater.
The main focus, though, was on Sandler's character struggling with the hand he dealt himself throughout life. There were many times where he played the role of battered douchebag well, and a few other times where we were reminded that this was the same actor whose performances in movies like "Spanglish" drew laughs for the wrong reasons. Still, for the most part, he delivered a great performance.
The main problem I had with this movie was that it was WAY too long. It clocks in at 2 hours and 16 minutes, and there's a reason most comedies don't go much longer than an hour and a half. They simply lose steam, and while there were numerous subplots that beefed up the length of "Funny People," I felt the movie could have been half an hour shorter very easily. Was it hurt by the added length? Not too much, but it surely wasn't helped.
Still, it lives up to the hype. Adam Sandler catches a second wind in his career, while Apatow and his favorite actors do their best to beef up the movie. You'll see where it drags, but there are plenty of laughs to keep you interested, for the most part. RATING: ***3/4
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
A Little Baseball Foresight
With the trading deadline looming at the end of the month, every baseball fan is naturally buzzing over who their team might acquire or unload. I'm going to look one step further today, and talk about high-profile guys who may be on the move between now and NEXT year's deadline.
The first is Grady Sizemore. I've never been a huge fan of him; the media is trumpeting him as an up-and-coming star, and his best year WAS last year (.268-33 HR-90 RBI-38 SB), but nothing about him says "sure-fire star." He's gone from .290 in 2006 to .277 in '07, .268 last year, and so far this year, a less-than-impressive .230. 30-30 ability is attractive, though, and one would think his RBI's would go through the roof on a good team. The Indians have unloaded major stars in each of the past two seasons, and may consider getting rid of Sizemore if a team offers a number of solid prospects, as they're clearly in no shape to contend right now.
Moving westward, San Diego has REALLY struggled this year, with a 39-62 record as of this writing. They've been hesitant to deal Jake Peavy, but one guy bound to get attention is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. He's a tremendous power hitter, even in spacious Petco Park. His homer and RBI totals have increased each of the past three full seasons (24-82, 30-100, 36-119), and with 27 dingers to date in 2009, 40 is well within reach. This would be akin to hitting close to 50 somewhere else, and to top it all off, his batting eye has improved, as he leads the league in walks with 79. At age 27, his best years could very well be in front of him, and he may want to spend them on a bonafide contender rather than the otherwise-punchless Padres.
The final target of examination is Brandon Phillips, the second baseman for the floundering Cincinnati Reds. You generally don't expect too much offense out of second sackers, but Phillips has established himself as a 25 HR-25 SB guy, and he won a Gold Glove last year to boot. His batting average is just that, average, but his strikeouts have decreased in recent years (109 in '07, 93 in '08, 41 so far this year), and he's got a great chance to record his first-ever 100-RBI season here in 2009. He's a great piece for a contender to utilize, and the Reds are nowhere near that level right now.
The first is Grady Sizemore. I've never been a huge fan of him; the media is trumpeting him as an up-and-coming star, and his best year WAS last year (.268-33 HR-90 RBI-38 SB), but nothing about him says "sure-fire star." He's gone from .290 in 2006 to .277 in '07, .268 last year, and so far this year, a less-than-impressive .230. 30-30 ability is attractive, though, and one would think his RBI's would go through the roof on a good team. The Indians have unloaded major stars in each of the past two seasons, and may consider getting rid of Sizemore if a team offers a number of solid prospects, as they're clearly in no shape to contend right now.
Moving westward, San Diego has REALLY struggled this year, with a 39-62 record as of this writing. They've been hesitant to deal Jake Peavy, but one guy bound to get attention is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. He's a tremendous power hitter, even in spacious Petco Park. His homer and RBI totals have increased each of the past three full seasons (24-82, 30-100, 36-119), and with 27 dingers to date in 2009, 40 is well within reach. This would be akin to hitting close to 50 somewhere else, and to top it all off, his batting eye has improved, as he leads the league in walks with 79. At age 27, his best years could very well be in front of him, and he may want to spend them on a bonafide contender rather than the otherwise-punchless Padres.
The final target of examination is Brandon Phillips, the second baseman for the floundering Cincinnati Reds. You generally don't expect too much offense out of second sackers, but Phillips has established himself as a 25 HR-25 SB guy, and he won a Gold Glove last year to boot. His batting average is just that, average, but his strikeouts have decreased in recent years (109 in '07, 93 in '08, 41 so far this year), and he's got a great chance to record his first-ever 100-RBI season here in 2009. He's a great piece for a contender to utilize, and the Reds are nowhere near that level right now.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Another chick-flick review: The Ugly Truth
Yep, saw the new Gerard Butler-Katherine Heigl film today. It did pretty well at the box office, grossing $27 million, but was it actually worth seeing? The answer: Sort of.
Firstly, I'm sort of a mark for Butler. Any actor who can go from starring in one of the most manly, blood-and-guts movies ever made (300) to being a respected comedy lead fairly seamlessly, as he did, deserves a ton of respect, and I don't think he's gotten it. He plays the role of "regular douchebag" well in this movie, despite plot twists you can see coming from miles away.
The rest of the movie? Eh. I've never been a big Heigl fan. Yes, she's pretty, but it wasn't an accident that she went from "the next big thing" just a few years ago to "just another pretty actress" now. She was passable, but hardly outstanding. The supporting cast was fine as well; no stand-out, show-stealing performances, but nobody really took away from it with bad ones, either.
The main beef I have with it is the same beef I have with 90% of romantic comedies ever made. You know the plot from the previews, and you know EXACTLY how it's going to shake out because they all end the exact same way. If the ride from the beginning you know until the end any dimwit can figure out is engaging without being too over-the-top, the movie generally isn't repulsive. Those that can pull it off compare favorably, and those that don't disappear after a short time.
This one falls in the middle. Yes, you check your disbelief at the door with romantic comedies, but there were times where I said to myself (and the wife), "This is stupid." Some of the stuff they try does work (Butler and Heigl have decent chemistry together, so they can pull off stuff other on-screen couples can't); others, like the old vibrating-underwear-at-dinner trick, fall flat.
The verdict: As chick flicks go, you've seen worse. Butler is funny, the rest of the cast is passable, and the 96-minute plot is a bit of a roller coaster with holes that will annoy you at some point. It's certainly better than The Proposal (thank goodness) despite its inconsistencies, and it's generally watchable. RATING: **1/2
Firstly, I'm sort of a mark for Butler. Any actor who can go from starring in one of the most manly, blood-and-guts movies ever made (300) to being a respected comedy lead fairly seamlessly, as he did, deserves a ton of respect, and I don't think he's gotten it. He plays the role of "regular douchebag" well in this movie, despite plot twists you can see coming from miles away.
The rest of the movie? Eh. I've never been a big Heigl fan. Yes, she's pretty, but it wasn't an accident that she went from "the next big thing" just a few years ago to "just another pretty actress" now. She was passable, but hardly outstanding. The supporting cast was fine as well; no stand-out, show-stealing performances, but nobody really took away from it with bad ones, either.
The main beef I have with it is the same beef I have with 90% of romantic comedies ever made. You know the plot from the previews, and you know EXACTLY how it's going to shake out because they all end the exact same way. If the ride from the beginning you know until the end any dimwit can figure out is engaging without being too over-the-top, the movie generally isn't repulsive. Those that can pull it off compare favorably, and those that don't disappear after a short time.
This one falls in the middle. Yes, you check your disbelief at the door with romantic comedies, but there were times where I said to myself (and the wife), "This is stupid." Some of the stuff they try does work (Butler and Heigl have decent chemistry together, so they can pull off stuff other on-screen couples can't); others, like the old vibrating-underwear-at-dinner trick, fall flat.
The verdict: As chick flicks go, you've seen worse. Butler is funny, the rest of the cast is passable, and the 96-minute plot is a bit of a roller coaster with holes that will annoy you at some point. It's certainly better than The Proposal (thank goodness) despite its inconsistencies, and it's generally watchable. RATING: **1/2
Sunday, July 12, 2009
A few quick blurbs and a movie review
1) Ever have a run of luck at cards where you seem to have the second-best hand EVERY hand you play? That's been me lately. Between a bad live session at Turning Stone a few weeks ago and several terrible online beats (KK losing to AJ, all-in preflop, after the board comes 7-8-9-10 in succession, KK losing to J8 after a terrible pre-flop call is rewarded with a J-8-3 flop, etc.), I've had enough happen to me to where I've taken a break for the past week.
The grand mal bad beat, though, came this week at the WSOP main event. Three players went all-in on one of the Day 2 sessions; one guy had AA, two others had the four kings in the deck. Naturally, one of the KK holders rivers a flush, thereby knocking the guy holding pocket rockets out of the world's biggest tournament. My stretch was enough to make me take a break; that would be enough to make me consider giving up poker and taking up backgammon.
2) Anyone catch Brock Lesnar's post-fight antics at UFC 100? Personally, I see no reason for Dana White to have gotten as angry as he did. Think about it; Lesnar was showing how marketable he could be as a guy people would pay to see, given the proper build-up for his opponent. With Lesnar building himself as God's gift to MMA and behaving as such, all it takes is a properly-built guy the fans can rally behind. Give him an undercard, and suddenly, bam, instant record buyrates.
3) So the wife and I went to see "I Love You, Beth Cooper" today. Following the lousy choice of "The Proposal" last week, we went with something she wanted to see and something I wasn't completely opposed to. The movie hasn't been advertised that well, despite the presence of "Heroes" star Hayden Panettiere. With that said, though, it's not a bad movie.
You see most of the plot in the ads that ARE out there. The class valedictorian, played by relative no-name Paul Rust, declares his love for the All-American girl in his class that never gave him the time of day. She gives him a chance, and everything spirals out of control.
What you DON'T see in the previews is key. For starters, remember "Ferris Bueller's Day Off?" The guy who played Cameron plays Rust's dad, an outwardly-normal, somewhat-introverted guy just waiting to explode. Nice homage, huh? Not everything works that well, though; the first 20 minutes or so are pretty awkward, and not in the funny kind of way. Fortunately, things pick up, and it turns into a fun, yet not always consistent, teen movie.
The movie itself is a throwback to adventurous 80's teen comedies. Panettiere is no Molly Ringwald, and Rust is no Anthony Michael Hall, but they work through the initial suck and bring out a watchable, occasionally-funny movie. Is it worth an expensive outing to the movies with comedies that are better at what they do? Maybe not, if this genre isn't what you're into. However, if you can squeeze in a matinee trip and don't mind seeing Panettiere in a quasi-nude scene, you shouldn't be too disappointed. RATING: **1/2
The grand mal bad beat, though, came this week at the WSOP main event. Three players went all-in on one of the Day 2 sessions; one guy had AA, two others had the four kings in the deck. Naturally, one of the KK holders rivers a flush, thereby knocking the guy holding pocket rockets out of the world's biggest tournament. My stretch was enough to make me take a break; that would be enough to make me consider giving up poker and taking up backgammon.
2) Anyone catch Brock Lesnar's post-fight antics at UFC 100? Personally, I see no reason for Dana White to have gotten as angry as he did. Think about it; Lesnar was showing how marketable he could be as a guy people would pay to see, given the proper build-up for his opponent. With Lesnar building himself as God's gift to MMA and behaving as such, all it takes is a properly-built guy the fans can rally behind. Give him an undercard, and suddenly, bam, instant record buyrates.
3) So the wife and I went to see "I Love You, Beth Cooper" today. Following the lousy choice of "The Proposal" last week, we went with something she wanted to see and something I wasn't completely opposed to. The movie hasn't been advertised that well, despite the presence of "Heroes" star Hayden Panettiere. With that said, though, it's not a bad movie.
You see most of the plot in the ads that ARE out there. The class valedictorian, played by relative no-name Paul Rust, declares his love for the All-American girl in his class that never gave him the time of day. She gives him a chance, and everything spirals out of control.
What you DON'T see in the previews is key. For starters, remember "Ferris Bueller's Day Off?" The guy who played Cameron plays Rust's dad, an outwardly-normal, somewhat-introverted guy just waiting to explode. Nice homage, huh? Not everything works that well, though; the first 20 minutes or so are pretty awkward, and not in the funny kind of way. Fortunately, things pick up, and it turns into a fun, yet not always consistent, teen movie.
The movie itself is a throwback to adventurous 80's teen comedies. Panettiere is no Molly Ringwald, and Rust is no Anthony Michael Hall, but they work through the initial suck and bring out a watchable, occasionally-funny movie. Is it worth an expensive outing to the movies with comedies that are better at what they do? Maybe not, if this genre isn't what you're into. However, if you can squeeze in a matinee trip and don't mind seeing Panettiere in a quasi-nude scene, you shouldn't be too disappointed. RATING: **1/2
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Several quick movie reviews
THE HANGOVER: I've seen it twice, and loved it both times. The plot doesn't get old, and neither does the humor. Stars are made out of previous unknowns (Zach Galfiniakis), and bigger stars (Bradley Cooper, Heather Graham, and yes, Mike Tyson) are used to perfection. It's not a shock that they decided to make a sequel before the first movie even went to theatres. The one criticism I have is that it could have been a bit longer, but since we're getting another movie out of these guys, I can't complain too much. RATING: ****1/2
FROST/NIXON: Finally saw this one after not getting a chance when it was in theatres late last year. It earned rave reviews, and while I didn't think it was quite as brilliant as others did, it's still a very good piece of movie-making. The flow of it gets old fast (problem -> solution -> bigger problem -> solution), but the movie's high spots are executed perfectly, and the phone call scene about half an hour before it ends REALLY gets you excited for what's left of it. Again, it's not the most amazing political movie you'll ever see, but as a mental thriller with occasional doses of comedy thrown in, it works very well. RATING: ***1/2
NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2: This Ben Stiller sequel starts off slowly and drags for a while, but the final half-hour is set up well enough for the final product to be respectable. They slowly build several subplots, some of which work (Bill Hader as General Custer), some of which fall VERY flat (Robin Williams mailing it in in his second turn as Teddy Roosevelt). Everything comes together, though, in a way that should appeal to everyone. If you liked the original, this one's at least worth a trip to the cheap movie theatres or to Best Buy to track down the DVD when it comes out. RATING: **3/4
THE PROPOSAL: The wife took me to see this. Bad, BAD move. With romantic comedies, you know the beginning from the previews, and you know the ending because no studio would ever greenlight a wacky romanic comedy that ends in tragedy. It's the middle hour or so that decides how good the film truly is.
Credit where it's due: Everyone, for the most part, tries hard, especially the supporting characters. In fact, Betty White steals every scene she's in as Ryan Reynolds's grandmother, and Oscar Nunez does wacky well as the town's male stripper/phone salesman/priest. However, the plot is a two-hour clunker that left me shaking my head even after suspending my disbelief at the door. It's almost as though they thought of every abused romantic comedy cliche (including the overactive dog), threw everything against the proverbial wall, and hoped some of it would stick. It didn't. Girls will like this movie due to the storybook flair it has, while guys will have to make due with the rare laughs White and Nunez bring out. RATING: *3/4
FROST/NIXON: Finally saw this one after not getting a chance when it was in theatres late last year. It earned rave reviews, and while I didn't think it was quite as brilliant as others did, it's still a very good piece of movie-making. The flow of it gets old fast (problem -> solution -> bigger problem -> solution), but the movie's high spots are executed perfectly, and the phone call scene about half an hour before it ends REALLY gets you excited for what's left of it. Again, it's not the most amazing political movie you'll ever see, but as a mental thriller with occasional doses of comedy thrown in, it works very well. RATING: ***1/2
NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2: This Ben Stiller sequel starts off slowly and drags for a while, but the final half-hour is set up well enough for the final product to be respectable. They slowly build several subplots, some of which work (Bill Hader as General Custer), some of which fall VERY flat (Robin Williams mailing it in in his second turn as Teddy Roosevelt). Everything comes together, though, in a way that should appeal to everyone. If you liked the original, this one's at least worth a trip to the cheap movie theatres or to Best Buy to track down the DVD when it comes out. RATING: **3/4
THE PROPOSAL: The wife took me to see this. Bad, BAD move. With romantic comedies, you know the beginning from the previews, and you know the ending because no studio would ever greenlight a wacky romanic comedy that ends in tragedy. It's the middle hour or so that decides how good the film truly is.
Credit where it's due: Everyone, for the most part, tries hard, especially the supporting characters. In fact, Betty White steals every scene she's in as Ryan Reynolds's grandmother, and Oscar Nunez does wacky well as the town's male stripper/phone salesman/priest. However, the plot is a two-hour clunker that left me shaking my head even after suspending my disbelief at the door. It's almost as though they thought of every abused romantic comedy cliche (including the overactive dog), threw everything against the proverbial wall, and hoped some of it would stick. It didn't. Girls will like this movie due to the storybook flair it has, while guys will have to make due with the rare laughs White and Nunez bring out. RATING: *3/4
Friday, June 26, 2009
Draft Critique: Western Conference
Like the East's Magic, the Houston Rockets did not have a draft pick, and therefore, they do not get a grade.
THEY GET AN "A"
San Antonio Spurs (A): There is no way on EARTH DeJuan Blair should have slipped out of the first round. Did any scouts WATCH the college basketball season and see how Blair threw Hasheem Thabeet around effortlessly? He's short, I get it, but 6'7" guys have succeeded in the pros, and maybe this gives Duncan another season or two in the long run as Blair gets phased in. Their second pick, Nando De Colo, is a typical Spurs pick of a guy they won't need for a few years. All in all, a great draft, made even better by the fact that they didn't have a single first-rounder.
THEY GET A "B"
LA Clippers (B+): Tough to screw up what is, essentially, a one-person draft. There was no question Griffin was the pick, and he, Eric Gordon, and Al Thornton give the Clippers a foundation to build off of in the next few years. They'll have to find a taker for either Chris Kaman or Marcus Camby, and that might be tough given their contracts, but for once, the Clippers did the right thing in the draft.
Golden State Warriors (B+): Well, Stephen Curry should give the franchise a jolt of excitement this season, at least. He was their only draft pick, and while his shooting exploits are the stuff of legend, his defense needs to improve. Regardless, he gives the Warriors a big-time scorer, and if he and Jamal Crawford can be put in as part of the consistent lineup, they'll open up shots for each other.
Denver Nuggets (B): I like the Lawson deal, as it shows they're making a commitment to the future. Chauncey Billups isn't getting younger, and the addition of Lawson shows that when he leaves, there'll be another guy ready to take over. Their second-rounder, Sergio Llull, is the other PG from Spain, and he'll probably stay over there.
Portland Trail Blazers (B): The trade they made with Dallas was dumb, and their first three draft picks were nothing to write home about. However, they made one of the best picks in the entire draft by snatching Patrick Mills near the end of the second round. He is the dream low-risk, high-reward player, and if he'd been healthy this past year, he may well have been a lottery pick.
Phoenix Suns (B): Shaq trade aside, this was a good draft for them. Earl Clark fits right in with the go-go-go style, and Taylor Griffin adds experience. They're rebuilding, and while the rookies may be given too much to carry when the season starts, for now, they're solid parts of this team.
Dallas Mavericks (B): The recruiting class is a nonspectacular one, but they get bumped up from B- to B for just how much they got to move down two spots in the draft. BJ Mullens is a prospect, but Ahmad Nivens dominated a deceptively-strong Atlantic 10 this past year and was a big sleeper.
LA Lakers (B-): Toney Douglas was a guy very few people were talking about, but he had a big run near the end of last season in getting Florida State to the NCAA tournament. With both Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher starting to rack up the mileage, this was a very nice pick. Their two second-rounders, Patrick Beverly and Chinemelu Edonu, however, were unremarkable and may not even make the team.
THEY GET A "C"
Oklahoma City Thunder (C+): James Harden is a polished player by comparison to the other guards in this draft crop, but there are doubts about just how much he can improve at the next level. Still, it was a logical pick. Their second pick, Rodrigue Beaubois, though, was a reach, and even Fran Frischilla, who is usually the first to gush about international players, admitted he hadn't played against anyone good.
Memphis Grizzlies (C+): Hasheem Thabeet is hit-or-miss. If they don't expect much out of him on the offensive end, he'll be OK (again, think a skinny Sam Dalembert). If they expect him to morph into Pau Gasol Version 2, like most of the mainstream sports media, he's in big trouble. DeMarre Carroll adds depth inside, and Sam Young was a good pick in the second round, but ultimately, they'll be remembered for how they use Thabeet.
Utah Jazz (C): Eric Maynor was a solid value pick at #20, but why would he be the guy when you've already got a dynamic point guard in Deron Williams? Their second-rounder, Goran Suton, fits the bill of a standard Utah big: White, slow, and awkward. Hey, somehow Jerry Sloan always seems to hide their weaknesses well, so if he can make it work again, kudos to him.
New Orleans Hornets (C): Much like Utah, they used their first-rounder on a point guard (Darren Collison) when they already had a young, elite athlete at that position. Collison is a good player, but they could have filled some other, more pressing needs with the pick (Wayne Ellington as a shooter, BJ Mullens as a developing post presence, etc.).
Sacramento Kings (C-): The Kings had three of the first 31 picks, so you'd think this would be higher. Not so. I'm not convinced Tyreke Evans will be the best fit; he's fast and athletic, and translates very well into a fast-paced style of play. This won't be that kind of environment. Omri Casspi is a bit of a risk, as there are some character issues to go along with his talent, and Jeff Pendergraph is very streaky (remember his complete DUD in the NCAA tourney against Syracuse?).
THEY GET A "D"
THEY GET AN "F"
THEY GET AN "INCOMPLETE"
Minnesota Timberwolves: When Minnesota took two PG's, I said to myself, "Self, something isn't right here." Indeed it wasn't, as now, there are reports Ricky Rubio may stay in Europe for a year or two. In that case, taking Jonny Flynn was actually a smart move, as it gives Minnesota some leverage and a safety option. Worst-case scenario, Rubio (or the rights to him) can be put in a trade to Phoenix, along with Al Jefferson, for Amare Stoudamire. Given the age of Steve Nash, which side wouldn't take that deal? Phoenix rebuilds in getting a potential future star at the point and a very good power forward, and Minnesota gets a marketable impact player in his prime.
Of course, if Rubio DOES show up, it presents a bit of a problem, but I'm crossing that bridge when I get there. They took Ty Lawson, but he's going to Denver. Wayne Ellington addressed the need for a shooter, and their two second-rounders, Nick Calathes and Henk Norel, were low-risk, high-reward players. I'd like to give this class a high grade, but I can't until I know what's happening with Rubio.
THEY GET AN "A"
San Antonio Spurs (A): There is no way on EARTH DeJuan Blair should have slipped out of the first round. Did any scouts WATCH the college basketball season and see how Blair threw Hasheem Thabeet around effortlessly? He's short, I get it, but 6'7" guys have succeeded in the pros, and maybe this gives Duncan another season or two in the long run as Blair gets phased in. Their second pick, Nando De Colo, is a typical Spurs pick of a guy they won't need for a few years. All in all, a great draft, made even better by the fact that they didn't have a single first-rounder.
THEY GET A "B"
LA Clippers (B+): Tough to screw up what is, essentially, a one-person draft. There was no question Griffin was the pick, and he, Eric Gordon, and Al Thornton give the Clippers a foundation to build off of in the next few years. They'll have to find a taker for either Chris Kaman or Marcus Camby, and that might be tough given their contracts, but for once, the Clippers did the right thing in the draft.
Golden State Warriors (B+): Well, Stephen Curry should give the franchise a jolt of excitement this season, at least. He was their only draft pick, and while his shooting exploits are the stuff of legend, his defense needs to improve. Regardless, he gives the Warriors a big-time scorer, and if he and Jamal Crawford can be put in as part of the consistent lineup, they'll open up shots for each other.
Denver Nuggets (B): I like the Lawson deal, as it shows they're making a commitment to the future. Chauncey Billups isn't getting younger, and the addition of Lawson shows that when he leaves, there'll be another guy ready to take over. Their second-rounder, Sergio Llull, is the other PG from Spain, and he'll probably stay over there.
Portland Trail Blazers (B): The trade they made with Dallas was dumb, and their first three draft picks were nothing to write home about. However, they made one of the best picks in the entire draft by snatching Patrick Mills near the end of the second round. He is the dream low-risk, high-reward player, and if he'd been healthy this past year, he may well have been a lottery pick.
Phoenix Suns (B): Shaq trade aside, this was a good draft for them. Earl Clark fits right in with the go-go-go style, and Taylor Griffin adds experience. They're rebuilding, and while the rookies may be given too much to carry when the season starts, for now, they're solid parts of this team.
Dallas Mavericks (B): The recruiting class is a nonspectacular one, but they get bumped up from B- to B for just how much they got to move down two spots in the draft. BJ Mullens is a prospect, but Ahmad Nivens dominated a deceptively-strong Atlantic 10 this past year and was a big sleeper.
LA Lakers (B-): Toney Douglas was a guy very few people were talking about, but he had a big run near the end of last season in getting Florida State to the NCAA tournament. With both Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher starting to rack up the mileage, this was a very nice pick. Their two second-rounders, Patrick Beverly and Chinemelu Edonu, however, were unremarkable and may not even make the team.
THEY GET A "C"
Oklahoma City Thunder (C+): James Harden is a polished player by comparison to the other guards in this draft crop, but there are doubts about just how much he can improve at the next level. Still, it was a logical pick. Their second pick, Rodrigue Beaubois, though, was a reach, and even Fran Frischilla, who is usually the first to gush about international players, admitted he hadn't played against anyone good.
Memphis Grizzlies (C+): Hasheem Thabeet is hit-or-miss. If they don't expect much out of him on the offensive end, he'll be OK (again, think a skinny Sam Dalembert). If they expect him to morph into Pau Gasol Version 2, like most of the mainstream sports media, he's in big trouble. DeMarre Carroll adds depth inside, and Sam Young was a good pick in the second round, but ultimately, they'll be remembered for how they use Thabeet.
Utah Jazz (C): Eric Maynor was a solid value pick at #20, but why would he be the guy when you've already got a dynamic point guard in Deron Williams? Their second-rounder, Goran Suton, fits the bill of a standard Utah big: White, slow, and awkward. Hey, somehow Jerry Sloan always seems to hide their weaknesses well, so if he can make it work again, kudos to him.
New Orleans Hornets (C): Much like Utah, they used their first-rounder on a point guard (Darren Collison) when they already had a young, elite athlete at that position. Collison is a good player, but they could have filled some other, more pressing needs with the pick (Wayne Ellington as a shooter, BJ Mullens as a developing post presence, etc.).
Sacramento Kings (C-): The Kings had three of the first 31 picks, so you'd think this would be higher. Not so. I'm not convinced Tyreke Evans will be the best fit; he's fast and athletic, and translates very well into a fast-paced style of play. This won't be that kind of environment. Omri Casspi is a bit of a risk, as there are some character issues to go along with his talent, and Jeff Pendergraph is very streaky (remember his complete DUD in the NCAA tourney against Syracuse?).
THEY GET A "D"
THEY GET AN "F"
THEY GET AN "INCOMPLETE"
Minnesota Timberwolves: When Minnesota took two PG's, I said to myself, "Self, something isn't right here." Indeed it wasn't, as now, there are reports Ricky Rubio may stay in Europe for a year or two. In that case, taking Jonny Flynn was actually a smart move, as it gives Minnesota some leverage and a safety option. Worst-case scenario, Rubio (or the rights to him) can be put in a trade to Phoenix, along with Al Jefferson, for Amare Stoudamire. Given the age of Steve Nash, which side wouldn't take that deal? Phoenix rebuilds in getting a potential future star at the point and a very good power forward, and Minnesota gets a marketable impact player in his prime.
Of course, if Rubio DOES show up, it presents a bit of a problem, but I'm crossing that bridge when I get there. They took Ty Lawson, but he's going to Denver. Wayne Ellington addressed the need for a shooter, and their two second-rounders, Nick Calathes and Henk Norel, were low-risk, high-reward players. I'd like to give this class a high grade, but I can't until I know what's happening with Rubio.
Draft Critique: Eastern Conference
This is the first part of a three-part review of the NBA Draft. The Western Conference review, as well as a few extraneous thoughts, will be posted later today. For now, here's my rundown of each team in the East and a grade on what they did last night. Note that the Magic did not have a draft pick, so they do not receive a grade.
THEY GET AN "A"
Detroit Pistons (A-): Detroit ended up with three first-round quality guys. Austin Daye gives them security for Tayshaun Prince, DaJuan Summers has a unique skill set that creates mismatches at both the 3 and 4, and Chase Budinger has drawn Brent Barry comparisons for his shooting form. Taking Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, or Eric Maynor at #15 to give them a true point guard would bring this to the A+ range, but it's still a nice group of picks for a team that really needed a good draft.
THEY GET A "B"
Atlanta Hawks (B+): Jeff Teague was a tremendous pick at #19. He has insane speed and does everything else pretty well right off the bat. Their second round pick, Sergiy Gladyr, was a bit of a curveball that some (self included) know nothing about, but Teague should be the point-guard presence they've lacked for a while.
Charlotte Bobcats (B): They had three picks, and Jordan and Company brought in three safe players. Gerald Henderson is a versatile player who will be solid on both ends of the floor, Derrick Brown was a good pick in the second round (even if he's a little undersized for a PF), and Robert Vaden slid a pretty long way, as ESPN had him projected as a late-first, early-second guy. Charlotte got close to the playoffs last year, and this could conceivably put them over the hump in 09-10.
New Jersey Nets (B): They only had one pick, but they made it count, taking Louisville's Terrence Williams. I like Williams; he was a superb all-around talent in college, and they can probably move him to the 3-spot if need be to complement Brook Lopez. Earl Clark may have been a better fit for the team, but Nets fans can certainly live with what they brought in.
Boston Celtics (B-): They get bumped down a few notches for not making deals to try and move up for picks that could be used to replace any one of the players they're shopping. However, Lester Hudson was a really nice find in the late-second round. Try these per-game numbers on for size: 27.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 88% FT shooting. Small college, yes (Tennessee Martin), but if you're a fan of Stephen Curry and Patrick Mills, you have to like Hudson as well.
Indiana Pacers (B-): Indiana reached a bit for Tyler Hansbrough, but got even by stealing AJ Price in the second round. #13's a bit early to be taking a role player, but who else were they going to take at that spot in terms of filling needs? Price, meanwhile, helped lead UConn to their usual deep run in the Big Dance, and could be a surprise at the next level.
Chicago Bulls (B-): They went big with their two picks, taking James Johnson at #16 and Taj Gibson at #26. I like Gibson as a developmental prospect, as he was lost in the shadow of DeRozan at USC despite averaging 14 points and 9 rebounds a game. Johnson, though, is a tweener, and did they really need another semi-awkward forward when they already had one in Joakim Noah?
Miami Heat (B-): They did well with the two mid-to-late second-round picks they had. Marcus Thornton put up big numbers for LSU, and Robert Dozier was a nice find with the draft's final pick. There are question marks (the SEC stunk the last two years, and Dozier is very raw despite his impressive 6'9" size at SF), but the two picks they made were of the low-risk, high-reward variety, and at that stage of the draft, I can't knock them too much for that.
THEY GET A "C"
New York Knicks (C+): Part of this grade is simply due to bad timing. They desperately wanted Stephen Curry, but he was taken one pick before they went on the clock. Instead, they got Jordan Hill, and while it's not an earth-shaking selection, Hill gives them sorely-needed depth in the frontcourt. He's a bit of a project, but he should have some time to develop.
Milwaukee Bucks (C+): The humor of Brandon Jennings showing up late is something that will be touched upon later. As crazy as he can be, he's a good pick that has some professional experience under his belt already. Their second-rounder, Jodie Meeks, is also talented, but why would they take a one-dimensional scorer when he'll be playing behind a BETTER one-dimensional scorer in Michael Redd?
Cleveland Cavaliers (C+): Any picks they made were going to be shadowed by the Shaq trade. In the case of Christian Eyenga, who some international scouts didn't have getting drafted and who Cleveland used their first-rounder on, that's a good thing. However, don't overlook their second-round swipe of Danny Green, who was a key player in UNC's national title team this year.
Philadelphia 76ers (C): Their one pick was at #17, where they ended Jrue Holliday's free-fall. I never saw a stud in Holliday. His stats weren't great at UCLA, and he entered the draft in a year where the position he played at was the only one filled with talent that may have made the first round in any other draft. He has a good ceiling, yeah, but I don't think he gives the Sixers anything more than what they had last year.
Toronto Raptors (C): Curry going to Golden State shook up the rest of the lottery, as Hill was probably tops on Toronto's list. They ended up with USC's Demar DeRozan, and I'm not crazy about it. He's a bit of a boom-or-bust guy, and while he came on strong at the end of the season, I don't see what makes him better than guys like Terrance Williams and Gerald Henderson.
THEY GET A "D"
Washington Wizards (D): Their trading of the fifth pick for a decent sixth man and an overrated guard was one of the worst NBA deals in recent memory. They needed to rebuild, and an array of talented guards were going to be available (Rubio, Curry, and Flynn, just to name three). They did pick up a good scorer in the second round (Central Florida's Jermaine Taylor), and that saves the draft from being a complete failure for them, but it remains to be seen if the rest of his game will translate to the NBA level.
THEY GET AN "F"
None, surprisingly.
THEY GET AN "A"
Detroit Pistons (A-): Detroit ended up with three first-round quality guys. Austin Daye gives them security for Tayshaun Prince, DaJuan Summers has a unique skill set that creates mismatches at both the 3 and 4, and Chase Budinger has drawn Brent Barry comparisons for his shooting form. Taking Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, or Eric Maynor at #15 to give them a true point guard would bring this to the A+ range, but it's still a nice group of picks for a team that really needed a good draft.
THEY GET A "B"
Atlanta Hawks (B+): Jeff Teague was a tremendous pick at #19. He has insane speed and does everything else pretty well right off the bat. Their second round pick, Sergiy Gladyr, was a bit of a curveball that some (self included) know nothing about, but Teague should be the point-guard presence they've lacked for a while.
Charlotte Bobcats (B): They had three picks, and Jordan and Company brought in three safe players. Gerald Henderson is a versatile player who will be solid on both ends of the floor, Derrick Brown was a good pick in the second round (even if he's a little undersized for a PF), and Robert Vaden slid a pretty long way, as ESPN had him projected as a late-first, early-second guy. Charlotte got close to the playoffs last year, and this could conceivably put them over the hump in 09-10.
New Jersey Nets (B): They only had one pick, but they made it count, taking Louisville's Terrence Williams. I like Williams; he was a superb all-around talent in college, and they can probably move him to the 3-spot if need be to complement Brook Lopez. Earl Clark may have been a better fit for the team, but Nets fans can certainly live with what they brought in.
Boston Celtics (B-): They get bumped down a few notches for not making deals to try and move up for picks that could be used to replace any one of the players they're shopping. However, Lester Hudson was a really nice find in the late-second round. Try these per-game numbers on for size: 27.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 88% FT shooting. Small college, yes (Tennessee Martin), but if you're a fan of Stephen Curry and Patrick Mills, you have to like Hudson as well.
Indiana Pacers (B-): Indiana reached a bit for Tyler Hansbrough, but got even by stealing AJ Price in the second round. #13's a bit early to be taking a role player, but who else were they going to take at that spot in terms of filling needs? Price, meanwhile, helped lead UConn to their usual deep run in the Big Dance, and could be a surprise at the next level.
Chicago Bulls (B-): They went big with their two picks, taking James Johnson at #16 and Taj Gibson at #26. I like Gibson as a developmental prospect, as he was lost in the shadow of DeRozan at USC despite averaging 14 points and 9 rebounds a game. Johnson, though, is a tweener, and did they really need another semi-awkward forward when they already had one in Joakim Noah?
Miami Heat (B-): They did well with the two mid-to-late second-round picks they had. Marcus Thornton put up big numbers for LSU, and Robert Dozier was a nice find with the draft's final pick. There are question marks (the SEC stunk the last two years, and Dozier is very raw despite his impressive 6'9" size at SF), but the two picks they made were of the low-risk, high-reward variety, and at that stage of the draft, I can't knock them too much for that.
THEY GET A "C"
New York Knicks (C+): Part of this grade is simply due to bad timing. They desperately wanted Stephen Curry, but he was taken one pick before they went on the clock. Instead, they got Jordan Hill, and while it's not an earth-shaking selection, Hill gives them sorely-needed depth in the frontcourt. He's a bit of a project, but he should have some time to develop.
Milwaukee Bucks (C+): The humor of Brandon Jennings showing up late is something that will be touched upon later. As crazy as he can be, he's a good pick that has some professional experience under his belt already. Their second-rounder, Jodie Meeks, is also talented, but why would they take a one-dimensional scorer when he'll be playing behind a BETTER one-dimensional scorer in Michael Redd?
Cleveland Cavaliers (C+): Any picks they made were going to be shadowed by the Shaq trade. In the case of Christian Eyenga, who some international scouts didn't have getting drafted and who Cleveland used their first-rounder on, that's a good thing. However, don't overlook their second-round swipe of Danny Green, who was a key player in UNC's national title team this year.
Philadelphia 76ers (C): Their one pick was at #17, where they ended Jrue Holliday's free-fall. I never saw a stud in Holliday. His stats weren't great at UCLA, and he entered the draft in a year where the position he played at was the only one filled with talent that may have made the first round in any other draft. He has a good ceiling, yeah, but I don't think he gives the Sixers anything more than what they had last year.
Toronto Raptors (C): Curry going to Golden State shook up the rest of the lottery, as Hill was probably tops on Toronto's list. They ended up with USC's Demar DeRozan, and I'm not crazy about it. He's a bit of a boom-or-bust guy, and while he came on strong at the end of the season, I don't see what makes him better than guys like Terrance Williams and Gerald Henderson.
THEY GET A "D"
Washington Wizards (D): Their trading of the fifth pick for a decent sixth man and an overrated guard was one of the worst NBA deals in recent memory. They needed to rebuild, and an array of talented guards were going to be available (Rubio, Curry, and Flynn, just to name three). They did pick up a good scorer in the second round (Central Florida's Jermaine Taylor), and that saves the draft from being a complete failure for them, but it remains to be seen if the rest of his game will translate to the NBA level.
THEY GET AN "F"
None, surprisingly.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
NBA Mock Draft
With the 2009 NBA draft just a few days away, I figure it's only fitting to do a mock draft. Much like my NFL work, I'm focused on the best guy for the team, not necessarily who the team is leaning towards taking.
1) LA Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
- A slam-dunk pick here. Griffin has most of the tools, including an NBA-ready body and off-the-charts athleticism. The one thing he could stand to do is to add a mid-range jumper.
2) Memphis Grizzlies: TRADE DOWN
- Rubio won't play there, and Thabeet isn't crazy about it, either. The next most-logical pick is Jonny Flynn, but he's a reach at #2. Therefore, they trade the pick to a team that could use the high spot.
2b) New York Knicks: Stephen Curry, PG/SG, Davidson
- I'm not crazy on Curry's PG prowess at the next level, but there's no doubting that he can shoot the lights out. With the likely release of Nate Robinson in the near future, this fits if they can add the necessary trade material.
3) Oklahoma City Thunder: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn
- After Griffin, I thoroughly HATE this class of bigs. Thabeet has no offensive skill besides dunking, but OKC does need a guy to lock down inside on defense, and size and wingspan can't be taught. I still think he's a rail-thin Sam Dalembert, but that's good enough for the Thunder.
4) Sacramento Kings: Jonny Flynn, PG, Syracuse
- Flynn has an NBA body and the ability to carry a team on his back. Sacramento's needed a point guard ever since Mike Bibby left town, and Flynn is the guy that can fill that void.
5) Washington Wizards: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain
- I'm not crazy on Rubio. After seeing some film, he looks like he's got fantastic court vision, but he looks awkward running the fast break and isn't very athletic. ESPN's Fran Frischilla calls him the next Steve Nash, but I think he tops out as this decade's Jason Williams. He'll be good, but there are definitely some holes there.
6) Minnesota Timberwolves: Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy
- Jennings could have been a top-5 pick had he declared for the draft last year. Minnesota is desperate for a point guard, and while they could take Jrue Holliday, I think Jennings is the better pick here due to his experience playing pro ball.
7) Golden State Warriors: Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona
- GS could go a lot of different directions here. Tyreke Evans is an option, as are Holliday and Arizona State's James Harden. However, Hill put up sneaky good numbers at Arizona, and with frontcourt depth at a real shortage, I think he's the pick.
8) Memphis Grizzlies (from NY Knicks): Jrue Holliday, PG, UCLA
- The Grizzlies have OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay, two viable scoring threats. However, they may not be convinced that Mike Conley is the guy to bring the ball up the floor in the near future. If Hill was available, I think he may have been the pick here due to suspect frontcourt depth, but they settle for the best pure PG available.
9) Toronto Raptors: DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh
- Blair's small measurements have scouts concerned, but do not forget that this is the same guy who made Hasheem Thabeet look like post-My Giant Gheorghe Muresan TWICE despite being a full nine inches shorter. He plays much bigger than he is, and with Chris Bosh likely skipping town after this coming season, he'll be appreciated here.
10) Milwaukee Bucks: James Harden, SG, Arizona State
- Milwaukee has a big backcourt problem. Fortunately, Harden slips here after being regarded by some as a top-5 prospect. He can pull up and shoot, as well as drive the lane, but questions have arisen as to just how much he'll improve at the next level.
11) NJ Nets: Earl Clark, SF, Louisville
- Clark is very athletic and poses a lot of mismatches at the small forward spot. He's got the intangibles to be a nice complement to Brook Lopez.
12) Charlotte Bobcats: BJ Mullens, C, Ohio State
- Charlotte has no depth behind Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor inside. Mullens is one of two 7-footers in this draft, and while he's far from a finished product, the Bobcats need to make the best of a TERRIBLE frontcourt situation here.
13) Indiana Pacers: Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, Duke
- The Pacers were REALLY banged up last year, yet still managed to win 36 games despite ten different players starting 14 or more games. This speaks to the team's commitment to depth and versatility, and Henderson, who played anywhere from the 1 to the 4 at Duke, would be a really nice fit here because of it.
14) Phoenix Suns: Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, Memphis
- Evans is sort of a tweener, but he does have great speed and the ability to play in transition. In Phoenix's go-go-go offense, he'd be a pretty valuable player.
15) Detroit Pistons: Ty Lawson, PG, UNC
- How some mock drafts have Lawson out of the first round is beyond me. His durability isn't great, but it shouldn't be a black mark on his incredible talent. There's no doubt AI is not the point guard Detroit wants, and he's getting older. They can take some time and groom Lawson to be the next Billups of this team, a defense-minded PG who can make clutch plays on the offensive end.
16) Chicago Bulls: Demar DeRozan, SG, USC
- The Bulls get lucky here, as the raw DeRozan drops to #16. He's very athletic, but needs some time to mature. Fortunately, Chicago should be able to give him that.
17) Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Williams, SG, Louisville
- Williams is a perfect fit here despite some unsure reports about his true ceiling. He played an uptempo style in college, and the Sixers play that same style at the next level. He's also a terrific defensive player, which should help them tremendously.
18) Minnesota Timberwolves: Sam Young, SF, Pitt
- Young scores in bunches, and can do so from anywhere on the floor after starting his college career as more of an inside player and moving towards the wing. Chase Budinger fits as well, but Young's basketball IQ and aggressiveness win out.
19) Atlanta Hawks: Jeff Teague, PG/SG, Wake Forest
- He's not quite ready for prime-time yet, but Teague can play either guard position and has no problem creating his own shot. He'll have time to grow in Atlanta, which can only help him in the long run.
20) Utah Jazz: Tyler Hansbrough, SF, UNC
- A disciplined, hard-working player is available for a coach who loves them. Tough to imagine a better fit than this, despite Gonzaga's Austin Daye also being attractive at this spot.
21) New Orleans Hornets: James Johnson, SF/PF, Wake Forest
- Johnson is very much stuck in between positions. Fortunately, New Orleans could use frontcourt help most anywhere, so this is a decent fit for him.
22) Dallas Mavericks: Eric Maynor, PG, VCU
- Jason Kidd is far from a spring chicken these days, entering his 15th year in the league. Guys love playing with him, but it's time for Dallas to groom his successor. Maynor played at a small school, but his talent isn't a secret.
23) Sacramento Kings: Austin Daye, SF, Gonzaga
- I agree with fellow blogger Josh Canu; Sacramento should go for the best available player here. That's Daye, who some have in the lottery.
24) Portland Trail Blazers: Darren Collison, PG/SG, UCLA
- Portland's looking for a PG, and Collison is the best one left at this stage. They'll be thrilled if Teague or Maynor drop down.
25) Oklahoma City Thunder: Taj Gibson, PF, USC
- Just because they took Thabeet doesn't mean they'll stop drafting frontcourt players. They have a great nucleus to build around in the backcourt, and Gibson will see solid playing time in his rookie year given the shallow depth of the OKC frontcourt.
26) Chicago Bulls: Chase Budinger, SF, Arizona
- Budinger's drawn comparisons to Brent Barry for his shooting fundamentals, which are among the best in this year's draft crop. He could have gone eight picks sooner, and Chicago's happy to have him here.
27) Memphis Grizzlies: Wayne Ellington, SG, UNC
- This is a best-available approach. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Grizzlies trade up a little; they need frontcourt help badly and Taj Gibson could help. However, Ellington's a great shooter who can fill the role of the spot-up sixth man off the bench.
28) Minnesota Timberwolves: Danny Green, SG/SF, UNC
- Minnesota needs depth at the two-spot. His teammates got all the fanfare, but Green averaged 13 points per game last season and is an excellent defensive player as well.
29) LA Lakers: Patrick Mills, PG/SG, St. Mary's
- Mills is a low-risk, high-reward guy. Plus, LA's backcourt isn't getting younger (Fisher's entering his 14th year, and Kobe passed 1,000 career games played this season), and you have to think they don't have high expectations for Jordan Farmar.
30) Cleveland Cavaliers: DaJuan Summers, SF/PF, Georgetown
- Summers can play either the 3 or the 4, and he'll create mismatches in both spots. He's more suited for the latter, but with LeBron James's return in 2010 uncertain, it can't hurt to have a backup plan.
1) LA Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
- A slam-dunk pick here. Griffin has most of the tools, including an NBA-ready body and off-the-charts athleticism. The one thing he could stand to do is to add a mid-range jumper.
2) Memphis Grizzlies: TRADE DOWN
- Rubio won't play there, and Thabeet isn't crazy about it, either. The next most-logical pick is Jonny Flynn, but he's a reach at #2. Therefore, they trade the pick to a team that could use the high spot.
2b) New York Knicks: Stephen Curry, PG/SG, Davidson
- I'm not crazy on Curry's PG prowess at the next level, but there's no doubting that he can shoot the lights out. With the likely release of Nate Robinson in the near future, this fits if they can add the necessary trade material.
3) Oklahoma City Thunder: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn
- After Griffin, I thoroughly HATE this class of bigs. Thabeet has no offensive skill besides dunking, but OKC does need a guy to lock down inside on defense, and size and wingspan can't be taught. I still think he's a rail-thin Sam Dalembert, but that's good enough for the Thunder.
4) Sacramento Kings: Jonny Flynn, PG, Syracuse
- Flynn has an NBA body and the ability to carry a team on his back. Sacramento's needed a point guard ever since Mike Bibby left town, and Flynn is the guy that can fill that void.
5) Washington Wizards: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain
- I'm not crazy on Rubio. After seeing some film, he looks like he's got fantastic court vision, but he looks awkward running the fast break and isn't very athletic. ESPN's Fran Frischilla calls him the next Steve Nash, but I think he tops out as this decade's Jason Williams. He'll be good, but there are definitely some holes there.
6) Minnesota Timberwolves: Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy
- Jennings could have been a top-5 pick had he declared for the draft last year. Minnesota is desperate for a point guard, and while they could take Jrue Holliday, I think Jennings is the better pick here due to his experience playing pro ball.
7) Golden State Warriors: Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona
- GS could go a lot of different directions here. Tyreke Evans is an option, as are Holliday and Arizona State's James Harden. However, Hill put up sneaky good numbers at Arizona, and with frontcourt depth at a real shortage, I think he's the pick.
8) Memphis Grizzlies (from NY Knicks): Jrue Holliday, PG, UCLA
- The Grizzlies have OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay, two viable scoring threats. However, they may not be convinced that Mike Conley is the guy to bring the ball up the floor in the near future. If Hill was available, I think he may have been the pick here due to suspect frontcourt depth, but they settle for the best pure PG available.
9) Toronto Raptors: DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh
- Blair's small measurements have scouts concerned, but do not forget that this is the same guy who made Hasheem Thabeet look like post-My Giant Gheorghe Muresan TWICE despite being a full nine inches shorter. He plays much bigger than he is, and with Chris Bosh likely skipping town after this coming season, he'll be appreciated here.
10) Milwaukee Bucks: James Harden, SG, Arizona State
- Milwaukee has a big backcourt problem. Fortunately, Harden slips here after being regarded by some as a top-5 prospect. He can pull up and shoot, as well as drive the lane, but questions have arisen as to just how much he'll improve at the next level.
11) NJ Nets: Earl Clark, SF, Louisville
- Clark is very athletic and poses a lot of mismatches at the small forward spot. He's got the intangibles to be a nice complement to Brook Lopez.
12) Charlotte Bobcats: BJ Mullens, C, Ohio State
- Charlotte has no depth behind Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor inside. Mullens is one of two 7-footers in this draft, and while he's far from a finished product, the Bobcats need to make the best of a TERRIBLE frontcourt situation here.
13) Indiana Pacers: Gerald Henderson, SG/SF, Duke
- The Pacers were REALLY banged up last year, yet still managed to win 36 games despite ten different players starting 14 or more games. This speaks to the team's commitment to depth and versatility, and Henderson, who played anywhere from the 1 to the 4 at Duke, would be a really nice fit here because of it.
14) Phoenix Suns: Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, Memphis
- Evans is sort of a tweener, but he does have great speed and the ability to play in transition. In Phoenix's go-go-go offense, he'd be a pretty valuable player.
15) Detroit Pistons: Ty Lawson, PG, UNC
- How some mock drafts have Lawson out of the first round is beyond me. His durability isn't great, but it shouldn't be a black mark on his incredible talent. There's no doubt AI is not the point guard Detroit wants, and he's getting older. They can take some time and groom Lawson to be the next Billups of this team, a defense-minded PG who can make clutch plays on the offensive end.
16) Chicago Bulls: Demar DeRozan, SG, USC
- The Bulls get lucky here, as the raw DeRozan drops to #16. He's very athletic, but needs some time to mature. Fortunately, Chicago should be able to give him that.
17) Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Williams, SG, Louisville
- Williams is a perfect fit here despite some unsure reports about his true ceiling. He played an uptempo style in college, and the Sixers play that same style at the next level. He's also a terrific defensive player, which should help them tremendously.
18) Minnesota Timberwolves: Sam Young, SF, Pitt
- Young scores in bunches, and can do so from anywhere on the floor after starting his college career as more of an inside player and moving towards the wing. Chase Budinger fits as well, but Young's basketball IQ and aggressiveness win out.
19) Atlanta Hawks: Jeff Teague, PG/SG, Wake Forest
- He's not quite ready for prime-time yet, but Teague can play either guard position and has no problem creating his own shot. He'll have time to grow in Atlanta, which can only help him in the long run.
20) Utah Jazz: Tyler Hansbrough, SF, UNC
- A disciplined, hard-working player is available for a coach who loves them. Tough to imagine a better fit than this, despite Gonzaga's Austin Daye also being attractive at this spot.
21) New Orleans Hornets: James Johnson, SF/PF, Wake Forest
- Johnson is very much stuck in between positions. Fortunately, New Orleans could use frontcourt help most anywhere, so this is a decent fit for him.
22) Dallas Mavericks: Eric Maynor, PG, VCU
- Jason Kidd is far from a spring chicken these days, entering his 15th year in the league. Guys love playing with him, but it's time for Dallas to groom his successor. Maynor played at a small school, but his talent isn't a secret.
23) Sacramento Kings: Austin Daye, SF, Gonzaga
- I agree with fellow blogger Josh Canu; Sacramento should go for the best available player here. That's Daye, who some have in the lottery.
24) Portland Trail Blazers: Darren Collison, PG/SG, UCLA
- Portland's looking for a PG, and Collison is the best one left at this stage. They'll be thrilled if Teague or Maynor drop down.
25) Oklahoma City Thunder: Taj Gibson, PF, USC
- Just because they took Thabeet doesn't mean they'll stop drafting frontcourt players. They have a great nucleus to build around in the backcourt, and Gibson will see solid playing time in his rookie year given the shallow depth of the OKC frontcourt.
26) Chicago Bulls: Chase Budinger, SF, Arizona
- Budinger's drawn comparisons to Brent Barry for his shooting fundamentals, which are among the best in this year's draft crop. He could have gone eight picks sooner, and Chicago's happy to have him here.
27) Memphis Grizzlies: Wayne Ellington, SG, UNC
- This is a best-available approach. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Grizzlies trade up a little; they need frontcourt help badly and Taj Gibson could help. However, Ellington's a great shooter who can fill the role of the spot-up sixth man off the bench.
28) Minnesota Timberwolves: Danny Green, SG/SF, UNC
- Minnesota needs depth at the two-spot. His teammates got all the fanfare, but Green averaged 13 points per game last season and is an excellent defensive player as well.
29) LA Lakers: Patrick Mills, PG/SG, St. Mary's
- Mills is a low-risk, high-reward guy. Plus, LA's backcourt isn't getting younger (Fisher's entering his 14th year, and Kobe passed 1,000 career games played this season), and you have to think they don't have high expectations for Jordan Farmar.
30) Cleveland Cavaliers: DaJuan Summers, SF/PF, Georgetown
- Summers can play either the 3 or the 4, and he'll create mismatches in both spots. He's more suited for the latter, but with LeBron James's return in 2010 uncertain, it can't hurt to have a backup plan.
Monday, June 22, 2009
USGA: United Screwers of Golfing Aficionados
Clever title, huh?
So the US Open concluded today. Lucas Glover won by two shots, and the crowd was absolutely indifferent as the winning putt settled into the cup. This was indicative of a crowd that had grown weary of everything this year's Open had brought with it. I'm not just talking about the weather, either; the people running this tournament REALLY screwed up.
Going day-by-day, rain fell hard on Thursday. Obviously, the weather was inevitable, but the information being given by the USGA was flat-out wrong. According to them, their initial goal was to start golf by 1:30 PM that day, and right off the bat, TV personalities ripped into it, saying it was impossible. Indeed it was; 1:30 PM what, Tehran time? Everyone knew that no more golf would be played that day, but the USGA tried to make its tournament The Little Engine That Might for a few hours while most of the people watching might not know of the big, multi-colored blob on the radar heading straight for Farmingdale, New York.
This, of course, led to the Thursday ticket controversy. I'm with the public on this; ticketholders should have been given rain checks without hesitation. This, after all, was being marketed as The People's Open, Version 2. Instead, the throng of people interested in seeing first-round golf were getting a bunch of stuffed shirts who didn't care about them after they forked over money for tickets, souvenirs, and food on the grounds. It may as well have been held at some snooty private club with mandatory trust funds for all spectators...you know, just like every other golf tournament on the schedule.
So they reverse their decisions, getting some positive press. Friday and Saturday happen, and then a USGA head honcho shows up on the Golf Channel Saturday night. He not only says he will work through the night to ensure good course conditions for Sunday, but pretty much guarantees that the field will play 36 holes despite, by his own admission, rainfall of up to two inches overnight. What was the plan, build a dome over Long Island so nothing gets in or out? Actually, that's one hell of an idea, but I digress.
Of course, weather delays the Sunday action until noon, and no mention of the sound byte is mentioned by NBC. It was tough to contain my amusement when the first tee announcer, God bless him, had to say, "This is the 7:21 PM tee time," while maintaining a straight face and demeanor. Obviously, they didn't sign up for two hours of filler on NBC, but given the quasi-controversy over the two waves of players and any advantages that may have existed, I really think delaying the final round until 8 AM Monday and sending players off of both tees was the right move. You get everyone on their way by 10, everyone comes in at 3, and there's time for an 18-hole playoff if necessary. I can understand what everyone was thinking, but I do disagree with it.
Yet again, the USGA never put the tournament first this weekend. I commend the grounds crew, which is one of the best in the world. I commend NBC and ESPN for not sounding TOO repetitive over the five days. I commend the golfers for putting up with a TON of mental angst, even more so than at a standard major, and I commend Lucas Glover for four days of great golf. But the USGA really dropped the ball this weekend, and in doing so, they showed the true colors of a group that's more concerned about politicking and putting up facades than about telling the truth. It's unfortunate that that's what I'll always remember this tournament for, and I can only hope it results in some change in how the USGA does business.
So the US Open concluded today. Lucas Glover won by two shots, and the crowd was absolutely indifferent as the winning putt settled into the cup. This was indicative of a crowd that had grown weary of everything this year's Open had brought with it. I'm not just talking about the weather, either; the people running this tournament REALLY screwed up.
Going day-by-day, rain fell hard on Thursday. Obviously, the weather was inevitable, but the information being given by the USGA was flat-out wrong. According to them, their initial goal was to start golf by 1:30 PM that day, and right off the bat, TV personalities ripped into it, saying it was impossible. Indeed it was; 1:30 PM what, Tehran time? Everyone knew that no more golf would be played that day, but the USGA tried to make its tournament The Little Engine That Might for a few hours while most of the people watching might not know of the big, multi-colored blob on the radar heading straight for Farmingdale, New York.
This, of course, led to the Thursday ticket controversy. I'm with the public on this; ticketholders should have been given rain checks without hesitation. This, after all, was being marketed as The People's Open, Version 2. Instead, the throng of people interested in seeing first-round golf were getting a bunch of stuffed shirts who didn't care about them after they forked over money for tickets, souvenirs, and food on the grounds. It may as well have been held at some snooty private club with mandatory trust funds for all spectators...you know, just like every other golf tournament on the schedule.
So they reverse their decisions, getting some positive press. Friday and Saturday happen, and then a USGA head honcho shows up on the Golf Channel Saturday night. He not only says he will work through the night to ensure good course conditions for Sunday, but pretty much guarantees that the field will play 36 holes despite, by his own admission, rainfall of up to two inches overnight. What was the plan, build a dome over Long Island so nothing gets in or out? Actually, that's one hell of an idea, but I digress.
Of course, weather delays the Sunday action until noon, and no mention of the sound byte is mentioned by NBC. It was tough to contain my amusement when the first tee announcer, God bless him, had to say, "This is the 7:21 PM tee time," while maintaining a straight face and demeanor. Obviously, they didn't sign up for two hours of filler on NBC, but given the quasi-controversy over the two waves of players and any advantages that may have existed, I really think delaying the final round until 8 AM Monday and sending players off of both tees was the right move. You get everyone on their way by 10, everyone comes in at 3, and there's time for an 18-hole playoff if necessary. I can understand what everyone was thinking, but I do disagree with it.
Yet again, the USGA never put the tournament first this weekend. I commend the grounds crew, which is one of the best in the world. I commend NBC and ESPN for not sounding TOO repetitive over the five days. I commend the golfers for putting up with a TON of mental angst, even more so than at a standard major, and I commend Lucas Glover for four days of great golf. But the USGA really dropped the ball this weekend, and in doing so, they showed the true colors of a group that's more concerned about politicking and putting up facades than about telling the truth. It's unfortunate that that's what I'll always remember this tournament for, and I can only hope it results in some change in how the USGA does business.
Saturday, June 6, 2009
One great call leads to a win
This morning, while waiting for the wife to come back from her Saturday morning shift, I took part in a 45-player sit-n-go on PokerStars. I usually detest sit-n-gos, especially bigger ones, due to their usually-stringent payout structures. That said, I was bored and 45 players isn't too big for my tastes, so off I went. They paid the top 7, and we were down to the final 10 or 11 when the following hand came up.
Blinds were $100/$200, with a $25 ante. I had been treading water all tournament long to this point, and had just under $1,800 in chips. The button at the five-player table was on me when I looked down to Kh-Qh. Ruben165 raised to $600, and I just called as everyone else folded. KQ suited is a nice starting hand, but I wasn't about to go over the top, especially since a lot of SNG players like to play close to the vest and set traps with big hands.
The flop came out 10s-4h-2h. I thought, "Decent flop, but be careful chasing." Ruben165 immediately shoved all-in, and had me covered. I went into the tank here, knowing how the tournament stood. If I won, I probably cash, but was it worth calling in this spot with no pair and a mere flush draw? If I folded, I just wasted a third of my stack, and was probably going to be done soon anyway.
I thought about what kinds of hands he could represent in this spot. A10? Certainly not A4 or A2. Low pocket pairs would have been semi-feasible, but anything from 6-6 or 5-5 down wouldn't justify his substantial pre-flop raise (he'd been playing pretty tight, consistent poker). I then considered the chance he could be bluffing with ace-rag or king or queen-high. Nobody likes to make a mistake this close to the money, and he could be trying to buy the pot after missing completely. The more I thought, the more this made sense, and I put my remaining $1,200 into the pot.
We flipped the cards, and I was delighted to see he had Kc-Jc! He HAD missed, and was dead unless a jack hit the board. Fortunately, the turn brought another 2, and the river paired my queen to double me up. It propelled me to the final table, and I managed to take down a few more big pots, culminating when my pocket 9's held against J10 suited to win the tournament. I'm usually a conservative player, but if I don't make that call with Kh-Qh, I probably don't cash, let alone win the big prize. It just goes to show you have to be willing to consider the chances of people blowing smoke, even THAT close to the money.
Blinds were $100/$200, with a $25 ante. I had been treading water all tournament long to this point, and had just under $1,800 in chips. The button at the five-player table was on me when I looked down to Kh-Qh. Ruben165 raised to $600, and I just called as everyone else folded. KQ suited is a nice starting hand, but I wasn't about to go over the top, especially since a lot of SNG players like to play close to the vest and set traps with big hands.
The flop came out 10s-4h-2h. I thought, "Decent flop, but be careful chasing." Ruben165 immediately shoved all-in, and had me covered. I went into the tank here, knowing how the tournament stood. If I won, I probably cash, but was it worth calling in this spot with no pair and a mere flush draw? If I folded, I just wasted a third of my stack, and was probably going to be done soon anyway.
I thought about what kinds of hands he could represent in this spot. A10? Certainly not A4 or A2. Low pocket pairs would have been semi-feasible, but anything from 6-6 or 5-5 down wouldn't justify his substantial pre-flop raise (he'd been playing pretty tight, consistent poker). I then considered the chance he could be bluffing with ace-rag or king or queen-high. Nobody likes to make a mistake this close to the money, and he could be trying to buy the pot after missing completely. The more I thought, the more this made sense, and I put my remaining $1,200 into the pot.
We flipped the cards, and I was delighted to see he had Kc-Jc! He HAD missed, and was dead unless a jack hit the board. Fortunately, the turn brought another 2, and the river paired my queen to double me up. It propelled me to the final table, and I managed to take down a few more big pots, culminating when my pocket 9's held against J10 suited to win the tournament. I'm usually a conservative player, but if I don't make that call with Kh-Qh, I probably don't cash, let alone win the big prize. It just goes to show you have to be willing to consider the chances of people blowing smoke, even THAT close to the money.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Bluffing on PokerStars
So I decided to play a $2.75 buy-in tournament today. It had a guaranteed prize pool of $10,000, and I'd been running pretty well lately. I didn't cash (I finished about 1,200th of 5,000), but I did make one of the best plays of my poker career just a few hands before busting out.
We were at $150/$300 blinds, with $25 antes. I had just under $8,900 in chips, about average at that point. In late position, I look down to 6-6. One person, tam2664, had limped in behind me, with five others folding. I made it $1,000 to go with my pocket pair from the button, and A.Do.1981, sitting two seats to my left in the big blind, called, as did tam2664.
We went to the flop, which came up 8h-9s-3h. Not a great flop for a pair of sixes, for sure. A.Do.1981 led out by limping again. tam2664 called, and after some thinking, I just called as well. This wasn't a good spot to raise in, as both players would have overvalued flush or straight draws and folded hands I could beat in the long run (like A-3, which I figured one of these players had).
The turn was the Jd, for a 8h-9s-3h-Jd board that looked FAR from appealing. I was checked to, and thought about what I'd been representing so far. I thought the best hand I could possibly give off was Ah-10h, which was semi-reasonable with my betting pattern. Therefore, I made a $1,500 stab at the pot hoping to scare off anyone that may have had A-3 or A-8. A.Do.1981 called, however, and while tam2664 folded, I was kicking myself for wasting $1,500 on the hand when I could have seen a free card.
However, the river was a beautiful 10c, for a 8h-9s-3h-Jd-10c board. Any flush draw was dead, and I figured another overcard wouldn't be pleasant to my fellow player, who now had several more hands to worry about being second-best to. He checked, and I decided to shove my remaining $6,000 in. My reasoning was that he had to have a made hand of SOME sort on the turn, and the odds of one of the cards being a 7 or a queen were pretty low. I had him covered by a little under $2,000, so it in turn put him all-in. He went into the tank for about twenty seconds, and ultimately laid his hand down in defeat.
Happily, I scooped up the pot, and while I'm usually not much for showing cards, I showed the 6-6 and typed, "THAT, ladies and gents, is a bluff!" I was really pleased with how I played the hand, and how I was able to take down a very nice pot on a stone bluff on the end. Unfortunately, all did not end well for me. Five hands later, my Q-10 was toast when I went all-in after a Q-10-X flop and saw my opponent had 10-10. There was no way out of it, and it prevented me from cashing following one of the better hands I've ever played. Still, it's a nice story to tell.
We were at $150/$300 blinds, with $25 antes. I had just under $8,900 in chips, about average at that point. In late position, I look down to 6-6. One person, tam2664, had limped in behind me, with five others folding. I made it $1,000 to go with my pocket pair from the button, and A.Do.1981, sitting two seats to my left in the big blind, called, as did tam2664.
We went to the flop, which came up 8h-9s-3h. Not a great flop for a pair of sixes, for sure. A.Do.1981 led out by limping again. tam2664 called, and after some thinking, I just called as well. This wasn't a good spot to raise in, as both players would have overvalued flush or straight draws and folded hands I could beat in the long run (like A-3, which I figured one of these players had).
The turn was the Jd, for a 8h-9s-3h-Jd board that looked FAR from appealing. I was checked to, and thought about what I'd been representing so far. I thought the best hand I could possibly give off was Ah-10h, which was semi-reasonable with my betting pattern. Therefore, I made a $1,500 stab at the pot hoping to scare off anyone that may have had A-3 or A-8. A.Do.1981 called, however, and while tam2664 folded, I was kicking myself for wasting $1,500 on the hand when I could have seen a free card.
However, the river was a beautiful 10c, for a 8h-9s-3h-Jd-10c board. Any flush draw was dead, and I figured another overcard wouldn't be pleasant to my fellow player, who now had several more hands to worry about being second-best to. He checked, and I decided to shove my remaining $6,000 in. My reasoning was that he had to have a made hand of SOME sort on the turn, and the odds of one of the cards being a 7 or a queen were pretty low. I had him covered by a little under $2,000, so it in turn put him all-in. He went into the tank for about twenty seconds, and ultimately laid his hand down in defeat.
Happily, I scooped up the pot, and while I'm usually not much for showing cards, I showed the 6-6 and typed, "THAT, ladies and gents, is a bluff!" I was really pleased with how I played the hand, and how I was able to take down a very nice pot on a stone bluff on the end. Unfortunately, all did not end well for me. Five hands later, my Q-10 was toast when I went all-in after a Q-10-X flop and saw my opponent had 10-10. There was no way out of it, and it prevented me from cashing following one of the better hands I've ever played. Still, it's a nice story to tell.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Three Quick NutSAK Movie Reviews
After a hiatus to finish schoolwork, start an internship, get laid off from an internship, and get settled in back home, I'm back on the blog, and will reassume my presence with three reviews of movies I've just recently seen.
STAR TREK: I'm not a Trekkie, but the movie looked cool and my dad offered to take me for free, so what the heck, right? The movie itself was fabulous. Chris Pine is a great Kirk, and everyone else fits their role very well (including Simon Pegg, who steals every scene he's in as Montgomery Scott, the Enterprise's eccentric engineer). The one negative aspect is the lame love triangle story line between Uhura, Spock, and Kirk, which added an "oh brother" aspect to the rare sci-fi film that didn't have it otherwise. I really liked this movie, and while the love triangle brings it down a few notches, it's still a must-see if you have any interest in the genre. RATING: ****1/4
GET SMART: This is a few years old, but I just got the DVD and finally watched it. While it isn't a masterpiece of cinema (what comedy really is?), what you see is what you get, and in this case, that's a very good thing. Steve Carell is Steve Carell here, and while some of his stuff is over the top, he gets to a point where everything that comes out of his mouth is gold. Anne Hathaway is a very capable sidekick, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson fits his role perfectly as well, and Alan Arkin does a great Chief, including a few side-splitting lines in the last half-hour of the film. There are some shortcomings, namely how one of the good guys transforms into the bad guy without much explanation, but everything is generally well-done, and the movie comes highly recommended. RATING: ***3/4
UP: The wife and I saw this yesterday when there was nothing else we could compromise on seeing. I figured, hey, Ed Asner's in the movie, and when does Disney lay an egg with cartoon movies anyway, right? Well, if you're expecting the typical Disney formula of "hijinks for a little while, conflict, overcoming conflict, happy ending," you're going to be horrified at how this one starts, especially if you bring your kids to see it. Props to Disney and Pixar for throwing a curveball in the formula, but what it led to was very few laughs for the first half-hour or so. The final hour is OK, but not nearly as great as critics have been saying, and while you ultimately get the happy ending, I just felt the build-up to it was sort of weak. Not a horrible movie, but certainly a letdown. RATING: **3/4
STAR TREK: I'm not a Trekkie, but the movie looked cool and my dad offered to take me for free, so what the heck, right? The movie itself was fabulous. Chris Pine is a great Kirk, and everyone else fits their role very well (including Simon Pegg, who steals every scene he's in as Montgomery Scott, the Enterprise's eccentric engineer). The one negative aspect is the lame love triangle story line between Uhura, Spock, and Kirk, which added an "oh brother" aspect to the rare sci-fi film that didn't have it otherwise. I really liked this movie, and while the love triangle brings it down a few notches, it's still a must-see if you have any interest in the genre. RATING: ****1/4
GET SMART: This is a few years old, but I just got the DVD and finally watched it. While it isn't a masterpiece of cinema (what comedy really is?), what you see is what you get, and in this case, that's a very good thing. Steve Carell is Steve Carell here, and while some of his stuff is over the top, he gets to a point where everything that comes out of his mouth is gold. Anne Hathaway is a very capable sidekick, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson fits his role perfectly as well, and Alan Arkin does a great Chief, including a few side-splitting lines in the last half-hour of the film. There are some shortcomings, namely how one of the good guys transforms into the bad guy without much explanation, but everything is generally well-done, and the movie comes highly recommended. RATING: ***3/4
UP: The wife and I saw this yesterday when there was nothing else we could compromise on seeing. I figured, hey, Ed Asner's in the movie, and when does Disney lay an egg with cartoon movies anyway, right? Well, if you're expecting the typical Disney formula of "hijinks for a little while, conflict, overcoming conflict, happy ending," you're going to be horrified at how this one starts, especially if you bring your kids to see it. Props to Disney and Pixar for throwing a curveball in the formula, but what it led to was very few laughs for the first half-hour or so. The final hour is OK, but not nearly as great as critics have been saying, and while you ultimately get the happy ending, I just felt the build-up to it was sort of weak. Not a horrible movie, but certainly a letdown. RATING: **3/4
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Live NFL Draft Diary
1:05 PM: The Detroit Lions have already said they will take Matt Stafford with the first overall pick. I think this is disastrous. Yes, they're sort of stuck having to take a QB in a below-average QB crop, but giving him the most guaranteed money of anyone to ever play the game is atrocious. Even better, they're planning to SIT him behind Culpepper this coming year? I understand not wanting to throw Stafford into the fire, but are they trying to get the #1 pick in NEXT year's draft, too? Culpepper hasn't been relevant since Moss was there to bail him out of bad throws. They should have never let Dan Orlovsky walk; he was actually starting to get it after a few 250+ yard games. No, he wasn't great, but he's a heck of a lot cheaper than Stafford is.
I'll be grading each pick after it's made. This one: C. Again, they needed to take a QB, but in typical Detroit fashion, they've screwed up how to do it.
4:00: Welcome to the draft! Our first pink sighting comes in the form of Michael Crabtree. I'm watching this upstairs with Mike Polak, who may chime in with his usual snide remarks from time to time.
4:03: Goodell comes up, met with a mixed reaction. He makes his standard awkward speech, followed by announcing Stafford going to the Lions. See above.
4:06: Polak comes down and makes the first "Erin Andrews is hot" comment. Guaranteed that there'll be several of those, especially when Nate March comes back from his errand to Rochon's house. Both of us agree that the $42 million Stafford is guaranteed to get is too much money.
4:08: St. Louis is on the clock. Pretty much assumed that they'll take an offensive lineman (either Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe).
4:10: Mel Kiper just ranted about how Mark Sanchez should be the #2 pick. Not worth much when their O-line stinks to high heaven. Mortensen says they might trade the pick to whoever gets Sanchez. Time winds down, and the Rams finally select...
4:14: Three minutes after the "pick is in" graphic comes up, the Rams announce they've taken Jason Smith. Good pick; scouts have fallen in love with his footwork. He'll move in where Orlando Pace left and give Bulger and Jackson some time to make things happen. GRADE: A-.
4:17: Next up, the Kansas City Chiefs. For their sake, I hope they, unlike Kiper and McShay, watched college football and take Aaron Curry over Tyson Jackson. Jackson's good against the run, but has no pass-rushing skills at all whatsoever.
4:21: Viewers bear me out, as Curry wins a poll over Jackson 65%-19%. Does common sense prevail?
4:25: The answer: NO!!!!!! Tyson Jackson gets drafted to a mixed reaction. Horrible pick; if Scott Pioli wanted to go d-end, draft Brian Orakpo, who has a nose for the football, hits hard, and knows how to get to the QB. I acknowledge he can stop the run, but despite the reactions of Kiper and Co., I think this is a lousy pick on the whole. GRADE: C-.
4:30: On to the Seahawks. If it's me, I take Eugene Monroe; they need to find a guy to fill the void Steve Hutchinson left years ago.
Bigger question: Since when is Chris Berman "Boom" instead of "Boomer?" Inquiring minds want to know!
4:32: Minor shock, as the Seahawks take Aaron Curry. Bigger story is Polak completely ripping him for crying as he walks to the podium. Apparently the NFL has turned into "A League of their Own."
Anyway, nice pick by Seattle. He replaces Julian Peterson and is a very steady player who always plays hard. GRADE: B+.
4:35: Make it two "Erin Andrews is hot" comments from Mike, complete with a Howard Dean "Pyahhhhh!" for good measure.
4:40: Cleveland on the clock. I've had Orakpo going here forever, but Mortensen expects a team to possibly trade to this spot. With a new regime, I don't see that happening. Orakpo's a good fit here, as every 3-4 team needs a big-time edge rusher, which Cleveland doesn't have.
4:41: Good reporting, Mort; bad move, Mangini. The Jets have moved up to the #5 spot, and Jet fan Mike Polak is elated. General wisdom is Sanchez here, and the video bears us out. I don't hate the pick, but I do think there's a chance this officially gives them too many cooks in the proverbial kitchen. Still, I see the wisdom, and I've always liked Sanchez more than Stafford. GRADE: B.
4:43: Polak is happy with the pick. He doesn't trust Kellen Clemens, and he says they still need a wide receiver, but is generally pretty even-tempered. Which is surprising considered he throws around exclamation points like they're going out of style.
4:46: Now the Cincinnati Bengals. They need to go O-line or Crabtree; Monroe is the safe choice, but Crabtree sells season tickets.
We hear that the Jets gave up a ton for Sanchez, including a second-rounder and QB Brett Ratliff. It's a little much, but new regimes do need new QB's, so it all comes out in the wash.
4:51: One of the most fun games to play is watching the players who ESPN has video cameras on. For all aspiring poker players, this is vital practice in reading people. Cincy's pick is in, and it appears they decide to go with Andre Smith, judging by the mile-wide smiles of him and his 30-person entourage...and they do. I don't like this pick long-term considering he's got more character flaws than Liz Berkley's character in Showgirls, but he does have talent, and Marvin Lewis is probably a year away from being fired so he's desperate. GRADE: B-.
4:58: Al Davis is on the clock! Exciting words, for sure, and his pick is in quickly so nobody can make fun of him for long. He's picked Darrius Heyward-Bey, the wideout out of Maryland who I have a substantial man-crush on. His stats stunk, but his Combine numbers were fantastic. I don't understand how they passed on Crabtree, who is a better overall wideout...oh wait, this is Al Davis. Still, I think he'll surprise a lot of people. GRADE: C-.
5:00: Crabtree Pink Shirt Watch is officially on as ESPN wonders where he's going. Polak and I are waiting for the Giants to trade up, and Nate March and Ara Eckel, our RA, come in. Hilarity is bound to ensue.
5:03: Jacksonville is on the clock. Look out for Malcolm Jenkins here; they need secondary help. Crabtree is also a possibility for any pick from here on out.
5:05: As Polak stiffs Ara for something he bought for him, Jacksonville selects Eugene Monroe. Not a horrid pick, but a bit unexpected given their needs. Still, Monroe is going to be a good player given his speed and agility at his position. GRADE: B-.
5:10: Green Bay is on the clock, and B.J. Raji and Michael Crabtree would both be no-brainers at this spot. They show Raji taking the phone call, and his face lights up. He'd help the 26th-ranked rush defense last year. Any doubt about the pick is erased when the customary 20-man entourage goes batshit nuts. Nice, safe pick, and he'll start right away. GRADE: A.
5:13: Ara gives his impression of Rivera choking with several hip thrusts. Nate and I are scarred for at least the next several hours.
5:15: San Francisco is on the clock, and, again, Crabtree's on the short list. Other possibilities: Michael Oher, Brian Orakpo, and some extra underwear for Mike Singletary.
5:18: Kiper makes the case for trading down, which everyone seems obligated to do at some point. However, they show Crabtree smiling on the phone, and their cycle of phone-shot, five-minute delay, then announcing the pick is getting REALLY old.
5:21: Anyway, Crabtree's the pick, and he went several picks too late. They needed a #1 receiver, and Crabtree immediately makes them more explosive. Now if they can draft an O-lineman in the second round, they've got the offense to contend for a division title in two or three years. GRADE: A.
5:26: The Bills are on the clock, and Aaron Maybin is shown getting the phone call. I thought they might go with Pettigrew here, but as good as he is, #11's high for a tight end, and Jared Cook and Chase Coffman will both be available later on. Regardless, nice pick. He's the most versatile front seven guy in the draft, and while he's only got two years of college experience under his belt, it means he's got a high ceiling and a lot of room to grow given a few years where he's not asked to do too much. There are some caveats, but I do like this pick. GRADE: B+.
5:30: Denver goes on the clock, and one would think they'd be eying either a running back (Knowshon Moreno) or a defensive lineman (Brian Orakpo). Either would be a need-filling pick, and with another pick later on at #18, they should do both within the next hour or so with relative ease.
5:32: Moreno it is, and it draws a HUGE reaction from the NYC crowd. I love Moreno, and I think he's the main reason why Matt Stafford looked so good at Georgia. Denver found out Selvin Young and everyone behind him were not effective last year, and Moreno can do it all. He's not a breakaway guy, but he'll be just fine here. GRADE: B+.
And right away, the Redskins take Brian Orakpo. Great value pick at #13, and he'll learn from Jason Taylor. Nice job, Snyder...wow, did I just say that? GRADE: A-.
5:40: New Orleans coming up. They need a defensive back, reaching for a RB would be unwise.
5:41: And the pick is Ohio State cornerback Malcolm Jenkins. Good pick; he's a tweener, but he's physically-gifted and is easily better than anyone they've got right now. Not a bad start in rebuilding the defense. GRADE: B+.
5:43: Mmm...burgers. Thanks Ara!
Anyway, next up is the Texans. Tough to figure what they'll do here; maybe Jeremy Maclin to line up alongside Andre Johnson.
5:45: Houston takes Brian Cushing, and the crowd goes indifferent! I don't like this guy as a first-rounder. Clay Matthews has been more impressive, and Rey Maualuga's a beast. Not a great pass-rusher, and there are better defensive players out there. GRADE: D+.
5:51: San Diego: Larry English, Northern Illinois. Who? They could have taken Michael Oher to plug their o-line here. I gotta say, I don't know much about him. GRADE: C.
5:56: Here's Cleveland. No, wait, they've traded to Tampa Bay. OK, so here's Tampa Bay. They need...pretty much everything, so it wouldn't surprise me to see anything at this point. If it's me, it's either Josh Freeman or Michael Oher.
6:02: The Bucs take Josh Freeman. This is a bit of a reach, but I understand the reasoning, and Tampa Bay does need to rebuild. Every rebuild starts with a new QB, and Freeman is the best one left. GRADE: C+.
6:05: Ed Werder excitedly reports that Denver will take Robert Ayers of Tennessee. Good series of picks by the Broncos if that's the case, and it is. Ayers isn't spectacular, but they had a gameplan and stuck to it. Good damage control by Josh McDaniels. GRADE: B.
6:10: Cleveland's on the clock for the third time. Could we see Brandon Pettigrew or Jeremy Maclin here?
6:15: NO!!!!! Mangini trades down AGAIN, this time to Philadelphia. I'm not saying he doesn't know what he's doing, because he's stacking up second and third-round choices, but this is getting old, quick.
Philly takes a wideout in the first round for the first time in forever, taking Jeremy Maclin. Great pick; Desean Jackson can't do everything himself, and Maclin has speed to burn. Philly got lucky with Maclin dropping, and they pounced. GRADE: A.
6:17: Detroit is back on the clock. One would think Michael Oher is the slam-dunk pick here; they need help on the line.
6:20: Or not, as they take Brandon Pettigrew. On second thought, I like this pick. Stafford needs help around him that extends beyond Calvin Johnson, and he can block a little as well. It wasn't the conventional pick, but there's wisdom there. GRADE: B.
6:22: Cleveland is on the clock for the fourth time today. Assuming they keep the pick, they could use Chris Wells at running back or Rey Maualuga at linebacker.
6:25: Oofa. There's no doubt Alex Mack is the best center in the draft. However, I don't necessarily think he's a need here as much as running back is. Mangini did this much wheeling and dealing, and this is all he came up with? GRADE: C.
Minnesota's pick is in quickly, a la Washington...and it's Percy Harvin. A lot of pure talent, but there are tons of issues here. His character is in question, as is his durability. Nate likens him to a Reggie Bush without the inhuman college resume, and I agree. GRADE: C+.
6:30: The Patriots are on the clock, and there are tons of guys who have slipped to this point. They'll probably go defense, given their guys are approaching social security-age.
6:33: NO!!!!!! They traded the pick to Baltimore. With the pick, the Ravens take Michael Oher, and his free-fall ends. He's the replacement for Jonathan Ogden they need, and while he's got some issues that need to be worked out, he'll be just fine in due time. He's a steal at this point in round one. GRADE: A-.
6:40: Atlanta's pick, and I've had them going D-line for a while. Everette Brown is still available, and he might be my pick if I was there.
6:42: THE VOICE OF REASON IS LISTENED TO! Peria Jerry gets picked. He's a little small for a D-tackle, but he's really fast for a lineman, and Atlanta will appreciate his help. Evander Hood had better combine numbers, but Jerry's still a good pick. GRADE: A-.
6:45: Up next, the Dolphins. Vontae Davis is the pick, and he's slipped a LONG way. I had him going to New Orleans, and while an offensive lineman may have been the better pick, this is still a good one in pushing Miami to the next level. GRADE: B+.
6:50: New England's next after trading down earlier, and reports are they're looking to trade down and stockpile picks in the 2nd round. Sneaky, yet again, this is Bill Belichick.
6:55: Indeed, the pick goes to the Packers. They use it on Clay Matthews, who I like a lot as a player. I still think Maualuga's the steal of the draft, but Matthews gives Green Bay further defensive help. GRADE: B+.
6:58: Indy's up now, and if they don't do something to address their poor run defense, there's something wrong.
7:02: The Colts take Donald Brown out of UConn. I think this is an overreaction due to Addai's injury last year, but Brown's got a lot of talent and the drop-off from here onward is noticeable. GRADE: B-.
7:05: Onto the Buffalo Bills. William Beatty could make this two UConn picks in a row, and Eben Britton is also a possibility.
Instead, they get Wood...Eric Wood (HEYOOOOOO sexual innuendo). Wood started a ton of straight games at Louisville, and is very consistent. Offensive line was a need, and they filled it, albeit not at the most crucial position, left tackle. GRADE: B.
7:08: Here come the G-Men. Nothing they could do would surprise me at this point, as they really don't have too many need positions. Best available is either Wells or Maualuga.
7:10: The pick is Hakeem Nicks, which gives them some depth at WR. It gives Manning the big target he wants, and, again, there really wasn't a bad pick they could make here. GRADE: B.
7:13: The Titans are up, and one would think they could use some front seven defensive help.
7:20: After teasing Chris Wells, the Titans take Kenny Britt out of Rutgers. They'd shied away from taking a wideout for years, but they desperately needed one at some point in the draft. Nice pick despite them having needs to fill on the other side of the ball later on. GRADE: B+.
7:25: OK, one would be wise to assume Wells is going to Arizona, right? They showed him on the phone, and he's perfect for their system.
7:30: And Wells goes. Perfect pick by the Cards, and Wells is easily the 2nd-best back in the draft. If this isn't an A+ pick, I don't know what is.
7:35: ZIGGY!!!!! Otherwise known as Evander Hood, he went nuts at the Combine, and he's now a Pittsburgh Steeler. I think offensive line was a bigger need, but Hood is a first-round talent, and they went with one of the best guys available. GRADE: B.
I'll be grading each pick after it's made. This one: C. Again, they needed to take a QB, but in typical Detroit fashion, they've screwed up how to do it.
4:00: Welcome to the draft! Our first pink sighting comes in the form of Michael Crabtree. I'm watching this upstairs with Mike Polak, who may chime in with his usual snide remarks from time to time.
4:03: Goodell comes up, met with a mixed reaction. He makes his standard awkward speech, followed by announcing Stafford going to the Lions. See above.
4:06: Polak comes down and makes the first "Erin Andrews is hot" comment. Guaranteed that there'll be several of those, especially when Nate March comes back from his errand to Rochon's house. Both of us agree that the $42 million Stafford is guaranteed to get is too much money.
4:08: St. Louis is on the clock. Pretty much assumed that they'll take an offensive lineman (either Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe).
4:10: Mel Kiper just ranted about how Mark Sanchez should be the #2 pick. Not worth much when their O-line stinks to high heaven. Mortensen says they might trade the pick to whoever gets Sanchez. Time winds down, and the Rams finally select...
4:14: Three minutes after the "pick is in" graphic comes up, the Rams announce they've taken Jason Smith. Good pick; scouts have fallen in love with his footwork. He'll move in where Orlando Pace left and give Bulger and Jackson some time to make things happen. GRADE: A-.
4:17: Next up, the Kansas City Chiefs. For their sake, I hope they, unlike Kiper and McShay, watched college football and take Aaron Curry over Tyson Jackson. Jackson's good against the run, but has no pass-rushing skills at all whatsoever.
4:21: Viewers bear me out, as Curry wins a poll over Jackson 65%-19%. Does common sense prevail?
4:25: The answer: NO!!!!!! Tyson Jackson gets drafted to a mixed reaction. Horrible pick; if Scott Pioli wanted to go d-end, draft Brian Orakpo, who has a nose for the football, hits hard, and knows how to get to the QB. I acknowledge he can stop the run, but despite the reactions of Kiper and Co., I think this is a lousy pick on the whole. GRADE: C-.
4:30: On to the Seahawks. If it's me, I take Eugene Monroe; they need to find a guy to fill the void Steve Hutchinson left years ago.
Bigger question: Since when is Chris Berman "Boom" instead of "Boomer?" Inquiring minds want to know!
4:32: Minor shock, as the Seahawks take Aaron Curry. Bigger story is Polak completely ripping him for crying as he walks to the podium. Apparently the NFL has turned into "A League of their Own."
Anyway, nice pick by Seattle. He replaces Julian Peterson and is a very steady player who always plays hard. GRADE: B+.
4:35: Make it two "Erin Andrews is hot" comments from Mike, complete with a Howard Dean "Pyahhhhh!" for good measure.
4:40: Cleveland on the clock. I've had Orakpo going here forever, but Mortensen expects a team to possibly trade to this spot. With a new regime, I don't see that happening. Orakpo's a good fit here, as every 3-4 team needs a big-time edge rusher, which Cleveland doesn't have.
4:41: Good reporting, Mort; bad move, Mangini. The Jets have moved up to the #5 spot, and Jet fan Mike Polak is elated. General wisdom is Sanchez here, and the video bears us out. I don't hate the pick, but I do think there's a chance this officially gives them too many cooks in the proverbial kitchen. Still, I see the wisdom, and I've always liked Sanchez more than Stafford. GRADE: B.
4:43: Polak is happy with the pick. He doesn't trust Kellen Clemens, and he says they still need a wide receiver, but is generally pretty even-tempered. Which is surprising considered he throws around exclamation points like they're going out of style.
4:46: Now the Cincinnati Bengals. They need to go O-line or Crabtree; Monroe is the safe choice, but Crabtree sells season tickets.
We hear that the Jets gave up a ton for Sanchez, including a second-rounder and QB Brett Ratliff. It's a little much, but new regimes do need new QB's, so it all comes out in the wash.
4:51: One of the most fun games to play is watching the players who ESPN has video cameras on. For all aspiring poker players, this is vital practice in reading people. Cincy's pick is in, and it appears they decide to go with Andre Smith, judging by the mile-wide smiles of him and his 30-person entourage...and they do. I don't like this pick long-term considering he's got more character flaws than Liz Berkley's character in Showgirls, but he does have talent, and Marvin Lewis is probably a year away from being fired so he's desperate. GRADE: B-.
4:58: Al Davis is on the clock! Exciting words, for sure, and his pick is in quickly so nobody can make fun of him for long. He's picked Darrius Heyward-Bey, the wideout out of Maryland who I have a substantial man-crush on. His stats stunk, but his Combine numbers were fantastic. I don't understand how they passed on Crabtree, who is a better overall wideout...oh wait, this is Al Davis. Still, I think he'll surprise a lot of people. GRADE: C-.
5:00: Crabtree Pink Shirt Watch is officially on as ESPN wonders where he's going. Polak and I are waiting for the Giants to trade up, and Nate March and Ara Eckel, our RA, come in. Hilarity is bound to ensue.
5:03: Jacksonville is on the clock. Look out for Malcolm Jenkins here; they need secondary help. Crabtree is also a possibility for any pick from here on out.
5:05: As Polak stiffs Ara for something he bought for him, Jacksonville selects Eugene Monroe. Not a horrid pick, but a bit unexpected given their needs. Still, Monroe is going to be a good player given his speed and agility at his position. GRADE: B-.
5:10: Green Bay is on the clock, and B.J. Raji and Michael Crabtree would both be no-brainers at this spot. They show Raji taking the phone call, and his face lights up. He'd help the 26th-ranked rush defense last year. Any doubt about the pick is erased when the customary 20-man entourage goes batshit nuts. Nice, safe pick, and he'll start right away. GRADE: A.
5:13: Ara gives his impression of Rivera choking with several hip thrusts. Nate and I are scarred for at least the next several hours.
5:15: San Francisco is on the clock, and, again, Crabtree's on the short list. Other possibilities: Michael Oher, Brian Orakpo, and some extra underwear for Mike Singletary.
5:18: Kiper makes the case for trading down, which everyone seems obligated to do at some point. However, they show Crabtree smiling on the phone, and their cycle of phone-shot, five-minute delay, then announcing the pick is getting REALLY old.
5:21: Anyway, Crabtree's the pick, and he went several picks too late. They needed a #1 receiver, and Crabtree immediately makes them more explosive. Now if they can draft an O-lineman in the second round, they've got the offense to contend for a division title in two or three years. GRADE: A.
5:26: The Bills are on the clock, and Aaron Maybin is shown getting the phone call. I thought they might go with Pettigrew here, but as good as he is, #11's high for a tight end, and Jared Cook and Chase Coffman will both be available later on. Regardless, nice pick. He's the most versatile front seven guy in the draft, and while he's only got two years of college experience under his belt, it means he's got a high ceiling and a lot of room to grow given a few years where he's not asked to do too much. There are some caveats, but I do like this pick. GRADE: B+.
5:30: Denver goes on the clock, and one would think they'd be eying either a running back (Knowshon Moreno) or a defensive lineman (Brian Orakpo). Either would be a need-filling pick, and with another pick later on at #18, they should do both within the next hour or so with relative ease.
5:32: Moreno it is, and it draws a HUGE reaction from the NYC crowd. I love Moreno, and I think he's the main reason why Matt Stafford looked so good at Georgia. Denver found out Selvin Young and everyone behind him were not effective last year, and Moreno can do it all. He's not a breakaway guy, but he'll be just fine here. GRADE: B+.
And right away, the Redskins take Brian Orakpo. Great value pick at #13, and he'll learn from Jason Taylor. Nice job, Snyder...wow, did I just say that? GRADE: A-.
5:40: New Orleans coming up. They need a defensive back, reaching for a RB would be unwise.
5:41: And the pick is Ohio State cornerback Malcolm Jenkins. Good pick; he's a tweener, but he's physically-gifted and is easily better than anyone they've got right now. Not a bad start in rebuilding the defense. GRADE: B+.
5:43: Mmm...burgers. Thanks Ara!
Anyway, next up is the Texans. Tough to figure what they'll do here; maybe Jeremy Maclin to line up alongside Andre Johnson.
5:45: Houston takes Brian Cushing, and the crowd goes indifferent! I don't like this guy as a first-rounder. Clay Matthews has been more impressive, and Rey Maualuga's a beast. Not a great pass-rusher, and there are better defensive players out there. GRADE: D+.
5:51: San Diego: Larry English, Northern Illinois. Who? They could have taken Michael Oher to plug their o-line here. I gotta say, I don't know much about him. GRADE: C.
5:56: Here's Cleveland. No, wait, they've traded to Tampa Bay. OK, so here's Tampa Bay. They need...pretty much everything, so it wouldn't surprise me to see anything at this point. If it's me, it's either Josh Freeman or Michael Oher.
6:02: The Bucs take Josh Freeman. This is a bit of a reach, but I understand the reasoning, and Tampa Bay does need to rebuild. Every rebuild starts with a new QB, and Freeman is the best one left. GRADE: C+.
6:05: Ed Werder excitedly reports that Denver will take Robert Ayers of Tennessee. Good series of picks by the Broncos if that's the case, and it is. Ayers isn't spectacular, but they had a gameplan and stuck to it. Good damage control by Josh McDaniels. GRADE: B.
6:10: Cleveland's on the clock for the third time. Could we see Brandon Pettigrew or Jeremy Maclin here?
6:15: NO!!!!! Mangini trades down AGAIN, this time to Philadelphia. I'm not saying he doesn't know what he's doing, because he's stacking up second and third-round choices, but this is getting old, quick.
Philly takes a wideout in the first round for the first time in forever, taking Jeremy Maclin. Great pick; Desean Jackson can't do everything himself, and Maclin has speed to burn. Philly got lucky with Maclin dropping, and they pounced. GRADE: A.
6:17: Detroit is back on the clock. One would think Michael Oher is the slam-dunk pick here; they need help on the line.
6:20: Or not, as they take Brandon Pettigrew. On second thought, I like this pick. Stafford needs help around him that extends beyond Calvin Johnson, and he can block a little as well. It wasn't the conventional pick, but there's wisdom there. GRADE: B.
6:22: Cleveland is on the clock for the fourth time today. Assuming they keep the pick, they could use Chris Wells at running back or Rey Maualuga at linebacker.
6:25: Oofa. There's no doubt Alex Mack is the best center in the draft. However, I don't necessarily think he's a need here as much as running back is. Mangini did this much wheeling and dealing, and this is all he came up with? GRADE: C.
Minnesota's pick is in quickly, a la Washington...and it's Percy Harvin. A lot of pure talent, but there are tons of issues here. His character is in question, as is his durability. Nate likens him to a Reggie Bush without the inhuman college resume, and I agree. GRADE: C+.
6:30: The Patriots are on the clock, and there are tons of guys who have slipped to this point. They'll probably go defense, given their guys are approaching social security-age.
6:33: NO!!!!!! They traded the pick to Baltimore. With the pick, the Ravens take Michael Oher, and his free-fall ends. He's the replacement for Jonathan Ogden they need, and while he's got some issues that need to be worked out, he'll be just fine in due time. He's a steal at this point in round one. GRADE: A-.
6:40: Atlanta's pick, and I've had them going D-line for a while. Everette Brown is still available, and he might be my pick if I was there.
6:42: THE VOICE OF REASON IS LISTENED TO! Peria Jerry gets picked. He's a little small for a D-tackle, but he's really fast for a lineman, and Atlanta will appreciate his help. Evander Hood had better combine numbers, but Jerry's still a good pick. GRADE: A-.
6:45: Up next, the Dolphins. Vontae Davis is the pick, and he's slipped a LONG way. I had him going to New Orleans, and while an offensive lineman may have been the better pick, this is still a good one in pushing Miami to the next level. GRADE: B+.
6:50: New England's next after trading down earlier, and reports are they're looking to trade down and stockpile picks in the 2nd round. Sneaky, yet again, this is Bill Belichick.
6:55: Indeed, the pick goes to the Packers. They use it on Clay Matthews, who I like a lot as a player. I still think Maualuga's the steal of the draft, but Matthews gives Green Bay further defensive help. GRADE: B+.
6:58: Indy's up now, and if they don't do something to address their poor run defense, there's something wrong.
7:02: The Colts take Donald Brown out of UConn. I think this is an overreaction due to Addai's injury last year, but Brown's got a lot of talent and the drop-off from here onward is noticeable. GRADE: B-.
7:05: Onto the Buffalo Bills. William Beatty could make this two UConn picks in a row, and Eben Britton is also a possibility.
Instead, they get Wood...Eric Wood (HEYOOOOOO sexual innuendo). Wood started a ton of straight games at Louisville, and is very consistent. Offensive line was a need, and they filled it, albeit not at the most crucial position, left tackle. GRADE: B.
7:08: Here come the G-Men. Nothing they could do would surprise me at this point, as they really don't have too many need positions. Best available is either Wells or Maualuga.
7:10: The pick is Hakeem Nicks, which gives them some depth at WR. It gives Manning the big target he wants, and, again, there really wasn't a bad pick they could make here. GRADE: B.
7:13: The Titans are up, and one would think they could use some front seven defensive help.
7:20: After teasing Chris Wells, the Titans take Kenny Britt out of Rutgers. They'd shied away from taking a wideout for years, but they desperately needed one at some point in the draft. Nice pick despite them having needs to fill on the other side of the ball later on. GRADE: B+.
7:25: OK, one would be wise to assume Wells is going to Arizona, right? They showed him on the phone, and he's perfect for their system.
7:30: And Wells goes. Perfect pick by the Cards, and Wells is easily the 2nd-best back in the draft. If this isn't an A+ pick, I don't know what is.
7:35: ZIGGY!!!!! Otherwise known as Evander Hood, he went nuts at the Combine, and he's now a Pittsburgh Steeler. I think offensive line was a bigger need, but Hood is a first-round talent, and they went with one of the best guys available. GRADE: B.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
NFL Mock: Round Two
For round one, scroll way down. Here is my mock for the second round, enjoy it.
1. Detroit (0-16): Brian Cushing, LB, USC
Rationale: Detroit addressed its offense in round one. Here, it gives Ernie Sims some help in the linebacker corps.
2. New England - from Kansas City (2-14): James Laurinaitis, LB, OSU
Rationale: Laurinaitis's stock has fallen considerably due to a poor Combine, but he's a sure tackler who has good instincts in defending the run and pass.
3. St. Louis (2-14): Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
Rationale: Marc Bulger is aging, and while offensive line was a bigger need, it's now filled. Freeman is arguably a first-round pick, and I don't see how the Rams can pass him up here.
4. Cleveland (4-12): Donald Brown, RB, UConn
Rationale: Jamal Lewis isn't getting any younger, and his best days are long gone. Brown can spell him for a year or two while adjusting to the pace of the NFL before taking over a few seasons down the line. He put up big numbers at Connecticut, and showed game-breaking ability at times last season.
5. Seattle (4-12): Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Rationale: Smith is an All-American, and tied the ACC career record for picks with 20. His 40 time wasn't great, but his instincts are some of the best in this year's crop of DB's.
6. Cincinnati (4-11-1): Jonathan Luigs, C, Arkansas
Rationale: Luigs should have come out after the 2007 season, where he was the nation's top center. Cincy needs to draft a lineman after getting Crabtree in round one.
7. Jacksonville (5-11): Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
Rationale: After cutting Matt Jones, the Jags especially need some firepower in the receiving corps. Their offense simply wasn't good last year, and Britt can help right away.
8. Oakland (5-11): Cody Brown, LB, UConn
Rationale: Going along with their round one pick, some defensive help here. Brown had a great pro day, running a 4.6 40 to go along with a 36.5-inch vertical leap.
9. Green Bay (6-10): Sean Smith, S/CB, Utah
Rationale: Their secondary isn't getting any younger. Smith is a versatile beast of a defensive back at 6'4", and he ran a very nice 40 to boot.
10. Buffalo (7-9): Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Rationale: Had to play second fiddle to Raji, but is a monster at 6'3", 330, and recorded 32 bench reps. It's an appealing package, especially when the DT pool is pretty thin this year.
11. San Francisco (7-9): Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina
Rationale: SF could use some offensive-line help, and Meredith is the best tackle left. They could also go for Percy Harvin, but for now, Meredith is the pick.
12. Miami - from Washington (8-8): Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Rationale: Miami loves guys who can be threats in more than one respect. Harvin is multi-faceted, and can hurt defenses in many different ways, making him a logical pick.
13. New York Giants - from New Orleans (8-8): Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina
Rationale: Cook was nowhere a few weeks ago, but blew up with a 4.5 40 and a 41-inch vertical at the Combine. Kevin Boss is decent, but if Cook lives up to those numbers, he won't be able to compete.
14. Houston (8-8): Andy Levitre, G, Oregon State
Rationale: Levitre is the #2 guard behind Robinson in the draft. It's not close, of course, but given that we're nowhere near the marquee tackles and centers at this point, this is the best Houston will do for upgrading their line.
15. New England - from San Diego (8-8): Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Rationale: Jackson is not a great pass rusher, but has been terrific against the run. Since the Patriots usually rely on their linebackers to provide the pass rush, he's a good fit.
16. Denver (8-8): Sen'Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
Rationale: I've always liked Marks, but his stock dropped due to his low bench total at the Combine. Denver could use some size on the d-line, so it's a logical selection.
17. Chicago (9-7): Hakeem Nicks, WR, UNC
Rationale: This is a move made to satisfy their new QB. Nicks has seen his stock drop a bit due to some off-the-field problems, but he'll be able to play instantly in Chicago.
18. Cleveland - from Tampa Bay (9-7): William Moore, S, Missouri
Rationale: Moore was once a top-15 pick, but he struggled at the Senior Bowl and was just OK at the Combine. Still, he'll jump right into the weak Cleveland secondary and should play a lot right off the bat.
19. Dallas (9-7): Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
Rationale: Delmas racked up 100 tackles his senior year. Granted, it was against questionable competition, but the Cowboys need to bolster their defense this season, and Delmas is a good start.
20. New York Jets (9-7): Brian Robiskie, WR, OSU
Rationale: Robiskie isn't a game-breaker, but he's a reliable possession guy who will be a good third option in his rookie season. The Jets need to surround their rookie QB's with talent to establish connections right away, and their two WR picks are indicative of that.
21. Philadelphia (9-6-1): Gerald McRath, OLB, Southern Miss
Rationale: Nobody on the Eagles front seven stands out as a star. McRath is very versatile, having played middle and outside linebacker in college, and his moving around should be an asset down the road.
22. Minnesota (10-6): Pat White, QB/???, West Virginia
Rationale: This is really a flyer pick. White's impressed scouts with his arm strength in workouts, but some coaches have expressed a desire to move him to wide receiver. Given the lack of consistency with remaining QB prospects, as well as the suck factor of Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, I think this is a low-risk, high-reward situation for the Vikings.
23. Atlanta (11-5): Darius Butler, CB, UConn
Rationale: Butler slipped this far due to a disappointing 40 time at the Combine, but partially redeemed himself at his pro day. He's a steal at this point in the draft.
24. Miami (11-5): Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Georgia
Rationale: Outside of Joey Porter, their pass rush wasn't great last year. Ellerbe was slowed by a knee injury in 2008, but a 4.6 40 and a 35-inch vertical show the knee is just fine now.
25. Baltimore (11-5): Scott McKillop, LB, Pittsburgh
Rationale: Some defensive depth for the Ravens, who are still reeling from the loss of Bart Scott to the Jets. McKillop had an amazing statistical year last year, with 137 tackles and four sacks.
26. New England (11-5): Nic Harris, LB/S, Oklahoma
Rationale: The Patriots love tweeners, and Harris is a great example, having 64 tackles and six pass break-ups. His 40 times have been a bit slow, but hey, they do need depth at linebacker, so maybe that isn't a bad thing.
27. Carolina (12-4): Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State
Rationale: At some point, don't you HAVE to start looking for a replacement for Jake Delhomme, who turned 34 in January and choked in the playoffs last year? Bomar, of course, transferred from Oklahoma, and threw for over 3,300 yards last season.
28. New York Giants (12-4): LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
Rationale: This is a great pick for the G-Men, who get a perfect replacement for Derrick Ward. McCoy is a top-5 running back, and will be a good contingency plan if and when Jacobs gets hurt.
29. Indianapolis (12-4): Victor Harris, CB, Virginia Tech
Rationale: Harris improved his 40 time considerably at his pro day, and picked off six passes this year. He gives Indianapolis more defensive help, something they sorely need.
30. Tennessee (13-3): Jarron Gilbert, DE/DT, San Jose State
Rationale: Albert Haynesworth left a gaping hole in the front line, and Jevon Kearse and Kyle Vanden Bosch are not getting younger. Gilbert is a versatile lineman with size and quickness, and he'll be used well here.
31. Arizona (9-7): Eric Wood, C, Louisville
Rationale: Simple. One of the biggest factors in offensive linemen is consistency. Wood has started 49 straight games and is a two-time All-Big East first-teamer. Enough said.
32. Pittsburgh (12-4): Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma
Rationale: Pittsburgh knows what they need, and that's as many new offensive linemen as possible. Loadholt is a beast at 6'8", 332, and while he's not quick enough to be a left tackle, he'll do just fine on the right side.
1. Detroit (0-16): Brian Cushing, LB, USC
Rationale: Detroit addressed its offense in round one. Here, it gives Ernie Sims some help in the linebacker corps.
2. New England - from Kansas City (2-14): James Laurinaitis, LB, OSU
Rationale: Laurinaitis's stock has fallen considerably due to a poor Combine, but he's a sure tackler who has good instincts in defending the run and pass.
3. St. Louis (2-14): Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
Rationale: Marc Bulger is aging, and while offensive line was a bigger need, it's now filled. Freeman is arguably a first-round pick, and I don't see how the Rams can pass him up here.
4. Cleveland (4-12): Donald Brown, RB, UConn
Rationale: Jamal Lewis isn't getting any younger, and his best days are long gone. Brown can spell him for a year or two while adjusting to the pace of the NFL before taking over a few seasons down the line. He put up big numbers at Connecticut, and showed game-breaking ability at times last season.
5. Seattle (4-12): Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest
Rationale: Smith is an All-American, and tied the ACC career record for picks with 20. His 40 time wasn't great, but his instincts are some of the best in this year's crop of DB's.
6. Cincinnati (4-11-1): Jonathan Luigs, C, Arkansas
Rationale: Luigs should have come out after the 2007 season, where he was the nation's top center. Cincy needs to draft a lineman after getting Crabtree in round one.
7. Jacksonville (5-11): Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
Rationale: After cutting Matt Jones, the Jags especially need some firepower in the receiving corps. Their offense simply wasn't good last year, and Britt can help right away.
8. Oakland (5-11): Cody Brown, LB, UConn
Rationale: Going along with their round one pick, some defensive help here. Brown had a great pro day, running a 4.6 40 to go along with a 36.5-inch vertical leap.
9. Green Bay (6-10): Sean Smith, S/CB, Utah
Rationale: Their secondary isn't getting any younger. Smith is a versatile beast of a defensive back at 6'4", and he ran a very nice 40 to boot.
10. Buffalo (7-9): Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
Rationale: Had to play second fiddle to Raji, but is a monster at 6'3", 330, and recorded 32 bench reps. It's an appealing package, especially when the DT pool is pretty thin this year.
11. San Francisco (7-9): Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina
Rationale: SF could use some offensive-line help, and Meredith is the best tackle left. They could also go for Percy Harvin, but for now, Meredith is the pick.
12. Miami - from Washington (8-8): Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Rationale: Miami loves guys who can be threats in more than one respect. Harvin is multi-faceted, and can hurt defenses in many different ways, making him a logical pick.
13. New York Giants - from New Orleans (8-8): Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina
Rationale: Cook was nowhere a few weeks ago, but blew up with a 4.5 40 and a 41-inch vertical at the Combine. Kevin Boss is decent, but if Cook lives up to those numbers, he won't be able to compete.
14. Houston (8-8): Andy Levitre, G, Oregon State
Rationale: Levitre is the #2 guard behind Robinson in the draft. It's not close, of course, but given that we're nowhere near the marquee tackles and centers at this point, this is the best Houston will do for upgrading their line.
15. New England - from San Diego (8-8): Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
Rationale: Jackson is not a great pass rusher, but has been terrific against the run. Since the Patriots usually rely on their linebackers to provide the pass rush, he's a good fit.
16. Denver (8-8): Sen'Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
Rationale: I've always liked Marks, but his stock dropped due to his low bench total at the Combine. Denver could use some size on the d-line, so it's a logical selection.
17. Chicago (9-7): Hakeem Nicks, WR, UNC
Rationale: This is a move made to satisfy their new QB. Nicks has seen his stock drop a bit due to some off-the-field problems, but he'll be able to play instantly in Chicago.
18. Cleveland - from Tampa Bay (9-7): William Moore, S, Missouri
Rationale: Moore was once a top-15 pick, but he struggled at the Senior Bowl and was just OK at the Combine. Still, he'll jump right into the weak Cleveland secondary and should play a lot right off the bat.
19. Dallas (9-7): Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
Rationale: Delmas racked up 100 tackles his senior year. Granted, it was against questionable competition, but the Cowboys need to bolster their defense this season, and Delmas is a good start.
20. New York Jets (9-7): Brian Robiskie, WR, OSU
Rationale: Robiskie isn't a game-breaker, but he's a reliable possession guy who will be a good third option in his rookie season. The Jets need to surround their rookie QB's with talent to establish connections right away, and their two WR picks are indicative of that.
21. Philadelphia (9-6-1): Gerald McRath, OLB, Southern Miss
Rationale: Nobody on the Eagles front seven stands out as a star. McRath is very versatile, having played middle and outside linebacker in college, and his moving around should be an asset down the road.
22. Minnesota (10-6): Pat White, QB/???, West Virginia
Rationale: This is really a flyer pick. White's impressed scouts with his arm strength in workouts, but some coaches have expressed a desire to move him to wide receiver. Given the lack of consistency with remaining QB prospects, as well as the suck factor of Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, I think this is a low-risk, high-reward situation for the Vikings.
23. Atlanta (11-5): Darius Butler, CB, UConn
Rationale: Butler slipped this far due to a disappointing 40 time at the Combine, but partially redeemed himself at his pro day. He's a steal at this point in the draft.
24. Miami (11-5): Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Georgia
Rationale: Outside of Joey Porter, their pass rush wasn't great last year. Ellerbe was slowed by a knee injury in 2008, but a 4.6 40 and a 35-inch vertical show the knee is just fine now.
25. Baltimore (11-5): Scott McKillop, LB, Pittsburgh
Rationale: Some defensive depth for the Ravens, who are still reeling from the loss of Bart Scott to the Jets. McKillop had an amazing statistical year last year, with 137 tackles and four sacks.
26. New England (11-5): Nic Harris, LB/S, Oklahoma
Rationale: The Patriots love tweeners, and Harris is a great example, having 64 tackles and six pass break-ups. His 40 times have been a bit slow, but hey, they do need depth at linebacker, so maybe that isn't a bad thing.
27. Carolina (12-4): Rhett Bomar, QB, Sam Houston State
Rationale: At some point, don't you HAVE to start looking for a replacement for Jake Delhomme, who turned 34 in January and choked in the playoffs last year? Bomar, of course, transferred from Oklahoma, and threw for over 3,300 yards last season.
28. New York Giants (12-4): LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
Rationale: This is a great pick for the G-Men, who get a perfect replacement for Derrick Ward. McCoy is a top-5 running back, and will be a good contingency plan if and when Jacobs gets hurt.
29. Indianapolis (12-4): Victor Harris, CB, Virginia Tech
Rationale: Harris improved his 40 time considerably at his pro day, and picked off six passes this year. He gives Indianapolis more defensive help, something they sorely need.
30. Tennessee (13-3): Jarron Gilbert, DE/DT, San Jose State
Rationale: Albert Haynesworth left a gaping hole in the front line, and Jevon Kearse and Kyle Vanden Bosch are not getting younger. Gilbert is a versatile lineman with size and quickness, and he'll be used well here.
31. Arizona (9-7): Eric Wood, C, Louisville
Rationale: Simple. One of the biggest factors in offensive linemen is consistency. Wood has started 49 straight games and is a two-time All-Big East first-teamer. Enough said.
32. Pittsburgh (12-4): Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma
Rationale: Pittsburgh knows what they need, and that's as many new offensive linemen as possible. Loadholt is a beast at 6'8", 332, and while he's not quick enough to be a left tackle, he'll do just fine on the right side.
Friday, April 17, 2009
NFL Mock Draft: 4-17
I'll probably add a second round at some point this weekend. Regardless, here's the first 32 picks, as I see them.
1. Detroit (0-16): Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
Rationale: With Orlovsky leaving, they now need a quarterback. Sanchez could go here if Stafford's stock drops, but for now, the overrated Georgia QB is the pick (as opposed to the overrated USC QB).
2. St. Louis (2-14): Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Rationale: The Rams haven't hid their man-crush on Monroe, and appear poised to take him at #2. They clearly need a tackle, and Monroe blew them away at the Combine.
3. Kansas City (2-14): Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Rationale: Now that they've got Cassel, QB is no longer a need. Curry's probably the safest pick in the draft, and that should be enough for a team that could desperately use defensive help.
4. Seattle (4-12): Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Rationale: Taking two OT's in the top four is painful, but Smith fills a need here. Steve Hutchinson left several years ago, and nobody's stepped up to take his place.
5. Cleveland (4-12): Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
Rationale: With Eric Mangini coming to town, Cleveland needs edge-rushers. That's exactly what Orakpo is, and he reaffirmed his status as the top defensive end in the draft with a solid Combine.
6. Cincinnati (4-11-1): Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Rationale: The more I think about it, the more I think this makes a ton of sense. Housh left for Seattle, Chad Ocho Cinco isn't wanted anymore, and that leaves Carson Palmer without a strong target. Obviously, this changes with Crabtree, the most exciting offensive player in the draft. I could see them going offensive line or trading the pick to a team with a wideout on the market who wants Sanchez, but Crabtree slipping this far is a gift they can't pass up.
7. Oakland (5-11): Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Rationale: As Al Davis kicks himself for winning one too many games to get Crabtree, he needs to realize his defense needs help. Brown is the best pass-rusher left in the draft, and he'll give the front seven a much-needed shot in the arm.
8. Jacksonville (5-11): Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Rationale: This pick could also be up for grabs. As much as I like Jenkins and as well as he'd fit in in Jacksonville, I could see the Jags drafting Sanchez and trading him, or trading the pick to a team like Denver. For now, though, this is the pick.
9. Green Bay (6-10): B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Rationale: Raji has flown up the charts due to very good Senior Bowl and Combine. With linebackers' stocks falling, Raji is the best fit for a team that needs defensive help very fast.
10. San Francisco (7-9): Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
Rationale: Johnson is everything a defensive-minded coach like Mike Singletary wants. He ran an unofficial 4.5 40, and has been compared to Julius Peppers by former Bucs coach Jon Gruden due to his freakish athleticism and great size.
11. Buffalo (7-9): Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
Rationale: I wasn't too impressed with Maybin this past season. Yeah, he was a good athlete, but he was raw and inexperienced. His pro day was absolutely incredible, though, and he gives the Bills a ton of versatility and a ceiling so high they'd be foolish to pass him up.
12. Denver (8-8): Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Rationale: We finally break the defensive streak, as Denver gets their man at #12. It's obvious that Kyle Orton isn't who the Broncos want as their default starter, and with Sanchez available at the spot, the selection is a no-brainer.
13. Washington (8-8): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Rationale: Maualuga is the best front seven guy left at this point, and it wasn't too long ago I had him ahead of Aaron Curry. He's great in many parts of the game, and if he can shake off the injury he had at the Combine, he could start right away.
14. New Orleans (8-8): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Rationale: Davis had the most impressive 40 time of any top corner at the Combine. He has temper issues, but New Orleans desperately needs help in the secondary.
15. Houston (8-8): Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Rationale: He's a sleeper, but I've always been extremely high on him. He has the best acceleration of any wideout in the draft not named Michael Crabtree, and the Texans could use a weapon to line up opposite Andre Johnson.
16. San Diego (8-8): Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Rationale: The Charger backfield has gone from one of the best in the NFL to one of the murkiest. LDT is getting old, and Darren Sproles is not an every-down back despite having the ability to score on every play. Moreno had two phenomenal years at Georgia, and his consistency as a rusher and receiver out of the backfield is appealing.
17. New York Jets (9-7): Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Rationale: Josh Freeman makes sense here, but with two young QB's already, they don't need another cook in the kitchen. They need reliable targets, and Maclin has been very impressive.
18. Denver (from Chicago): Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Rationale: Wells is injury-prone, but Denver was down to their sixth-string running back last year. After dealing with the QB situation, this is the most pressing need, and Wells being available is a pretty good fit.
19. Tampa Bay (9-7): Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Rationale: Oher's stock fell after issues in pass-blocking arose at the Combine. However, Tampa's offense has never heavily depended on the passing game, and he IS a very strong run-blocker who is available as TB begins a rebuilding phase.
20. Detroit - from Dallas (9-7): Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Rationale: Smith's character issues are troubling, but let's face it: Detroit is in no position to be choosy. He's got undeniable talent, and he'll get the chance to play right away.
21. Philadelphia (9-6-1): Alex Mack, C, California
Rationale: After Brent Celek caught 10 passes against Arizona, the tight end situation looks a lot more promising. Mack is clearly the best center in the draft, and he's an instant upgrade on the o-line for a coach who loves to draft big guys.
22. Minnesota (10-6): Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
Rationale: Make it four straight O-linemen. The Vikings have a big hole at right tackle, and they'll need to address it with the last top-tier tackle prospect left.
23. New England (11-5): D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
Rationale: Simply put, you could trot Deion Sanders out there and he'd compete for a job in this secondary. Moore is the best corner available, and given NE's performance in pass coverage, I think the Pats need him here.
24. Atlanta (11-5): Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
Rationale: I had Sen'Derrick Marks here for a while, but his low bench-press numbers lowered his stock significantly. Hood, meanwhile, has the best Combine numbers of any DT in the draft, including a 4.9 40, 35 bench reps, and a 34.5-inch vertical. All of these are insane for a nose tackle, and Atlanta has to be licking their chops.
25. Miami (11-5): Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Rationale: Jake Long's helped shore up the offensive line, but a young talent like Robinson could aid the running attack even further. He won't be a tackle, but he's easily the best guard in the draft.
26. Baltimore (11-5): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Rationale: This isn't as easy a pick as it once was, with Percy Harvin still on the board. However, Pettigrew isn't only a good blocker, but he provides Joe Flacco with a big target in the midrange passing game, so he's a perfect fit.
27. Indianapolis (12-4): Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Rationale: I like Jerry for the same reasons I like Hood. Great Combine numbers on both, but Jerry's a hair smaller than Hood is. That said, Indy will be very happy to have someone to shore up their rushing defense, which has struggled for a very long time.
28. Buffalo - from Philadelphia - from Carolina (12-4): William Beatty, OT, UConn
Rationale: After moving Jason Peters for this pick, they need to pick up a replacement lineman. Beatty is the best one out there at this point.
29. New York Giants (12-4): Clay Matthews, LB, USC
Rationale: The Giants could do anything here, and I wouldn't be surprised. They could trade this pick, but for the purposes of this draft, I say they take Matthews, whose stock is soaring. If they fail to acquire Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin, I could also see them taking Hakeem Nicks of UNC, but negotiations for Edwards look promising, so Matthews is the pick.
30. Tennessee (13-3): Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
Rationale: The drop from Jerry to the rest of the DT's is pretty substantial, and while they could go younger at either QB or WR, Sintim is a versatile linebacker who can play inside or outside in any system, and his 11 sacks in 10 games should say it all about his ability to bust up plays in the backfield.
31. Arizona (9-7): Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
Rationale: Ringer dropped in stature up until a great Pro Day, where he ran faster 40's than both Moreno and Wells. Edgerrin James won't re-sign with the club, and Ringer is a great complement to Tim Hightower.
32. Pittsburgh (12-4): Max Unger, C, Oregon
Rationale: Unger isn't quite a first-round talent. Yet again, Pittsburgh's offensive line isn't quite good. This is a pick they need to make, and Unger will be solid, albeit unspectacular.
1. Detroit (0-16): Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
Rationale: With Orlovsky leaving, they now need a quarterback. Sanchez could go here if Stafford's stock drops, but for now, the overrated Georgia QB is the pick (as opposed to the overrated USC QB).
2. St. Louis (2-14): Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Rationale: The Rams haven't hid their man-crush on Monroe, and appear poised to take him at #2. They clearly need a tackle, and Monroe blew them away at the Combine.
3. Kansas City (2-14): Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Rationale: Now that they've got Cassel, QB is no longer a need. Curry's probably the safest pick in the draft, and that should be enough for a team that could desperately use defensive help.
4. Seattle (4-12): Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Rationale: Taking two OT's in the top four is painful, but Smith fills a need here. Steve Hutchinson left several years ago, and nobody's stepped up to take his place.
5. Cleveland (4-12): Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
Rationale: With Eric Mangini coming to town, Cleveland needs edge-rushers. That's exactly what Orakpo is, and he reaffirmed his status as the top defensive end in the draft with a solid Combine.
6. Cincinnati (4-11-1): Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Rationale: The more I think about it, the more I think this makes a ton of sense. Housh left for Seattle, Chad Ocho Cinco isn't wanted anymore, and that leaves Carson Palmer without a strong target. Obviously, this changes with Crabtree, the most exciting offensive player in the draft. I could see them going offensive line or trading the pick to a team with a wideout on the market who wants Sanchez, but Crabtree slipping this far is a gift they can't pass up.
7. Oakland (5-11): Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Rationale: As Al Davis kicks himself for winning one too many games to get Crabtree, he needs to realize his defense needs help. Brown is the best pass-rusher left in the draft, and he'll give the front seven a much-needed shot in the arm.
8. Jacksonville (5-11): Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Rationale: This pick could also be up for grabs. As much as I like Jenkins and as well as he'd fit in in Jacksonville, I could see the Jags drafting Sanchez and trading him, or trading the pick to a team like Denver. For now, though, this is the pick.
9. Green Bay (6-10): B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Rationale: Raji has flown up the charts due to very good Senior Bowl and Combine. With linebackers' stocks falling, Raji is the best fit for a team that needs defensive help very fast.
10. San Francisco (7-9): Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
Rationale: Johnson is everything a defensive-minded coach like Mike Singletary wants. He ran an unofficial 4.5 40, and has been compared to Julius Peppers by former Bucs coach Jon Gruden due to his freakish athleticism and great size.
11. Buffalo (7-9): Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
Rationale: I wasn't too impressed with Maybin this past season. Yeah, he was a good athlete, but he was raw and inexperienced. His pro day was absolutely incredible, though, and he gives the Bills a ton of versatility and a ceiling so high they'd be foolish to pass him up.
12. Denver (8-8): Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Rationale: We finally break the defensive streak, as Denver gets their man at #12. It's obvious that Kyle Orton isn't who the Broncos want as their default starter, and with Sanchez available at the spot, the selection is a no-brainer.
13. Washington (8-8): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Rationale: Maualuga is the best front seven guy left at this point, and it wasn't too long ago I had him ahead of Aaron Curry. He's great in many parts of the game, and if he can shake off the injury he had at the Combine, he could start right away.
14. New Orleans (8-8): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Rationale: Davis had the most impressive 40 time of any top corner at the Combine. He has temper issues, but New Orleans desperately needs help in the secondary.
15. Houston (8-8): Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Rationale: He's a sleeper, but I've always been extremely high on him. He has the best acceleration of any wideout in the draft not named Michael Crabtree, and the Texans could use a weapon to line up opposite Andre Johnson.
16. San Diego (8-8): Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Rationale: The Charger backfield has gone from one of the best in the NFL to one of the murkiest. LDT is getting old, and Darren Sproles is not an every-down back despite having the ability to score on every play. Moreno had two phenomenal years at Georgia, and his consistency as a rusher and receiver out of the backfield is appealing.
17. New York Jets (9-7): Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Rationale: Josh Freeman makes sense here, but with two young QB's already, they don't need another cook in the kitchen. They need reliable targets, and Maclin has been very impressive.
18. Denver (from Chicago): Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Rationale: Wells is injury-prone, but Denver was down to their sixth-string running back last year. After dealing with the QB situation, this is the most pressing need, and Wells being available is a pretty good fit.
19. Tampa Bay (9-7): Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Rationale: Oher's stock fell after issues in pass-blocking arose at the Combine. However, Tampa's offense has never heavily depended on the passing game, and he IS a very strong run-blocker who is available as TB begins a rebuilding phase.
20. Detroit - from Dallas (9-7): Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Rationale: Smith's character issues are troubling, but let's face it: Detroit is in no position to be choosy. He's got undeniable talent, and he'll get the chance to play right away.
21. Philadelphia (9-6-1): Alex Mack, C, California
Rationale: After Brent Celek caught 10 passes against Arizona, the tight end situation looks a lot more promising. Mack is clearly the best center in the draft, and he's an instant upgrade on the o-line for a coach who loves to draft big guys.
22. Minnesota (10-6): Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
Rationale: Make it four straight O-linemen. The Vikings have a big hole at right tackle, and they'll need to address it with the last top-tier tackle prospect left.
23. New England (11-5): D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
Rationale: Simply put, you could trot Deion Sanders out there and he'd compete for a job in this secondary. Moore is the best corner available, and given NE's performance in pass coverage, I think the Pats need him here.
24. Atlanta (11-5): Evander Hood, DT, Missouri
Rationale: I had Sen'Derrick Marks here for a while, but his low bench-press numbers lowered his stock significantly. Hood, meanwhile, has the best Combine numbers of any DT in the draft, including a 4.9 40, 35 bench reps, and a 34.5-inch vertical. All of these are insane for a nose tackle, and Atlanta has to be licking their chops.
25. Miami (11-5): Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Rationale: Jake Long's helped shore up the offensive line, but a young talent like Robinson could aid the running attack even further. He won't be a tackle, but he's easily the best guard in the draft.
26. Baltimore (11-5): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Rationale: This isn't as easy a pick as it once was, with Percy Harvin still on the board. However, Pettigrew isn't only a good blocker, but he provides Joe Flacco with a big target in the midrange passing game, so he's a perfect fit.
27. Indianapolis (12-4): Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
Rationale: I like Jerry for the same reasons I like Hood. Great Combine numbers on both, but Jerry's a hair smaller than Hood is. That said, Indy will be very happy to have someone to shore up their rushing defense, which has struggled for a very long time.
28. Buffalo - from Philadelphia - from Carolina (12-4): William Beatty, OT, UConn
Rationale: After moving Jason Peters for this pick, they need to pick up a replacement lineman. Beatty is the best one out there at this point.
29. New York Giants (12-4): Clay Matthews, LB, USC
Rationale: The Giants could do anything here, and I wouldn't be surprised. They could trade this pick, but for the purposes of this draft, I say they take Matthews, whose stock is soaring. If they fail to acquire Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin, I could also see them taking Hakeem Nicks of UNC, but negotiations for Edwards look promising, so Matthews is the pick.
30. Tennessee (13-3): Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
Rationale: The drop from Jerry to the rest of the DT's is pretty substantial, and while they could go younger at either QB or WR, Sintim is a versatile linebacker who can play inside or outside in any system, and his 11 sacks in 10 games should say it all about his ability to bust up plays in the backfield.
31. Arizona (9-7): Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
Rationale: Ringer dropped in stature up until a great Pro Day, where he ran faster 40's than both Moreno and Wells. Edgerrin James won't re-sign with the club, and Ringer is a great complement to Tim Hightower.
32. Pittsburgh (12-4): Max Unger, C, Oregon
Rationale: Unger isn't quite a first-round talent. Yet again, Pittsburgh's offensive line isn't quite good. This is a pick they need to make, and Unger will be solid, albeit unspectacular.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Some unfortunate poker
I begin my first poker blog entry with some exposition. Bugsy's Club, the website I traditionally played on due to its Mac-friendly interface, went out of business, and PokerStars ran a promotion for members of BC to go over and play in freerolls with prize pools of $300 all week. I don't play much, but I don't stink, so off I went. I had assured myself of cashing (42 big cents!) when this hand came up; we're not talking big money here, but it's the principle, and if this adds a poker dimension to my blog, then so be it. I'll go stage by stage here, and we'll see how it goes.
Dealt to horsefan3277 [4h Ah]: Not a horrible hand. I usually tend to stay away from Ace-rag hands, but when they're suited in an eight-handed game like this where the action has been loose, I'll limp in and see if I get lucky. So four players folded, and I called the $500 minimum (I had about $6,300 in chips before this hand).
However, golias1, who had me outnumbered in chips by about a 2:1 ratio, raised another $500 to $1,000. Another player folded, blomber, who had about $20,000, called, and after some deliberation, I called as well to send us to the flop.
FLOP *** [Jh 5h Kh]
In the words of WPT commentator Mike Sexton, bingo, bango, bongo! I had flopped the nut flush, and now the question was, "How do I play the hand?" blomber checked, and I decided to limp in. After all, I was raised pre-flop, and if another raise came my way, I'd move over the top, going all-in and giving myself a chance to double or triple up. However, golias1 decided to just call, and blomber folded. Rats.
*** TURN *** [Jh 5h Kh] [Jd]
No card could have scared me on this turn except MAYBE a 5. Anyone who had pocket jacks or pocket kings would have raised much more pre-flop, and I figured someone with KJ or 55 would have seen the top two pair or trips and probably raised me on the flop. I bet $1,000, and lo and behold, golias1 goes all-in for a total of just over $9,600, thereby putting me all-in. Needless to say, I called, and turned over the nut flush.
*** RIVER *** [Jh 5h Kh Jd] [Js]*** SHOW DOWN ***horsefan3277: shows [4h Ah] (a flush, Ace high)golias1: shows [Jc Qs] (four of a kind, Jacks)
...yeah, I'm still hurting from that one.
Let's do some math. golias1, who did not play this hand too badly (more on that later), had ten outs. There were three queens, three kings, and three fives for a possible full boat, and, of course, the lone jack for quads. Yeah, he was dominated on the turn, but he still had $5,000 to play with if he lost and he had a not-insignificant number of outs. This wasn't aces getting cracked by 7-2 or anything.
If I was him, I probably play the hand in pretty similar fashion up until the turn. I don't necessarily love the pre-flop raise, but if it was a power play designed to get shorter stacks out of the hand and steal blinds, then I can understand it. Me limping in on the flop gave him a chance to see a pretty-much-free card on the turn, where he went all-in thinking I had squat. The all-in move was another aggressive play, but it makes sense. He's not crippled if he loses the hand, and given my betting patterns, he probably put me on something like K-10.
In general, that's poker. Ultimately, I got all my money in with the best hand, only to see it cracked by a miracle jack. Still, I made some cash, and in a freeroll tournament, that's not bad. If any more hands of note come up, I'll be sure to post them here, so keep an eye out.
Dealt to horsefan3277 [4h Ah]: Not a horrible hand. I usually tend to stay away from Ace-rag hands, but when they're suited in an eight-handed game like this where the action has been loose, I'll limp in and see if I get lucky. So four players folded, and I called the $500 minimum (I had about $6,300 in chips before this hand).
However, golias1, who had me outnumbered in chips by about a 2:1 ratio, raised another $500 to $1,000. Another player folded, blomber, who had about $20,000, called, and after some deliberation, I called as well to send us to the flop.
FLOP *** [Jh 5h Kh]
In the words of WPT commentator Mike Sexton, bingo, bango, bongo! I had flopped the nut flush, and now the question was, "How do I play the hand?" blomber checked, and I decided to limp in. After all, I was raised pre-flop, and if another raise came my way, I'd move over the top, going all-in and giving myself a chance to double or triple up. However, golias1 decided to just call, and blomber folded. Rats.
*** TURN *** [Jh 5h Kh] [Jd]
No card could have scared me on this turn except MAYBE a 5. Anyone who had pocket jacks or pocket kings would have raised much more pre-flop, and I figured someone with KJ or 55 would have seen the top two pair or trips and probably raised me on the flop. I bet $1,000, and lo and behold, golias1 goes all-in for a total of just over $9,600, thereby putting me all-in. Needless to say, I called, and turned over the nut flush.
*** RIVER *** [Jh 5h Kh Jd] [Js]*** SHOW DOWN ***horsefan3277: shows [4h Ah] (a flush, Ace high)golias1: shows [Jc Qs] (four of a kind, Jacks)
...yeah, I'm still hurting from that one.
Let's do some math. golias1, who did not play this hand too badly (more on that later), had ten outs. There were three queens, three kings, and three fives for a possible full boat, and, of course, the lone jack for quads. Yeah, he was dominated on the turn, but he still had $5,000 to play with if he lost and he had a not-insignificant number of outs. This wasn't aces getting cracked by 7-2 or anything.
If I was him, I probably play the hand in pretty similar fashion up until the turn. I don't necessarily love the pre-flop raise, but if it was a power play designed to get shorter stacks out of the hand and steal blinds, then I can understand it. Me limping in on the flop gave him a chance to see a pretty-much-free card on the turn, where he went all-in thinking I had squat. The all-in move was another aggressive play, but it makes sense. He's not crippled if he loses the hand, and given my betting patterns, he probably put me on something like K-10.
In general, that's poker. Ultimately, I got all my money in with the best hand, only to see it cracked by a miracle jack. Still, I made some cash, and in a freeroll tournament, that's not bad. If any more hands of note come up, I'll be sure to post them here, so keep an eye out.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
The NutSAK Preview of the Big Dance
Gonna go region by region here with things to watch for, as well as who comes out of them and into the Final Four.
MIDWEST
Team to watch: West Virginia. The six-seed here, they're peaking at the right time, and could have easily been a five-seed. I think they beat Dayton and Kansas to set up a Sweet 16 showdown with Michigan State.
Team to bet against: Ohio State. In general, this bracket is pretty well-laid out. However, I think the Buckeyes peaked too early, and may be overconfident heading into their first-round showdown with Siena. If the Saints press the tempo early, I think they win fairly comfortably.
Who moves on: Louisville. They're simply better than any team in this bracket, and it's not that close.
WEST
Team to watch: Marquette. Put yourself in their shoes. If you were immediately discounted because of an injury to a good but overrated guard, wouldn't you be hell-bent on proving people wrong? They're in my Sweet 16 after wins over Utah State and Missouri.
Team to bet against: UConn, but not right away. They've got an easy path to the Elite 8, where their toughest opponent will be a decent but not great Washington squad. However, they'll face Memphis, who will lock down AJ Price and Jeff Adrien and force Hasheem Thabeet to carry the load. He won't be able to do it.
Who moves on: Memphis. Defense wins championships, and this team shoots free throws MUCH better than last year's squad.
EAST
Team to watch: Texas. The Longhorns took a while to come around, but they have developed into a stout defensive team. Any squad who relies on the three to win games is going to have trouble. cough cough cough DUKE coughcoughcough.
Team to bet against: UCLA. May as well be spelled UGLY. This team is riding the success of the past 50 years, and they're simply not that great. They draw a dangerous VCU team in the first round, and if they make Darren Collison carry the team, he won't be able to do that.
Who moves on: Pitt. The trio of Levance Fields, Sam Young, and DeJuan Blair will be WAY too much to handle.
SOUTH
Team to watch: Gonzaga. As always, the Zags loom a threat in March. The team is very well-balanced, and they do the little things well. As a battle-tested squad, they won't be afraid of any team in this part of the bracket.
Team to bet against: UNC. Yes, they're a very strong team. However, without a healthy Ty Lawson, they're only a very good team as opposed to a great one. I think Butler may give them major headaches in the second round, followed immediately by Gonzaga exploiting UNC's inability to run and bouncing them in the Sweet 16.
Who moves on: Oklahoma. Say what you will about their finish to the season, but Blake Griffin is one of the two best frontcourt players in the country, and his supporting cast is also very talented as well.
FINAL FOUR
Louisville over Memphis: This'll be a tight game, but ultimately, I feel that the ensemble cast of the Cardinals will be too much for Tyreke Evans and Company to overcome.
Pitt over Oklahoma: How much would you pay to see Blair and Griffin boxing each other out on every trip down the floor? I think there's a very good chance of them fouling each other out, and if that happens, Sam Young immediately becomes the best player on the floor. It's a close matchup, but Pitt prevails.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Pitt over Louisville: Blair fouled out of their matchup earlier in the season, and Louisville escaped with the win. That won't happen again. The Cardinals are a great team, but teams with marquee bigs give them a lot of problems. They haven't played one up until now, and Blair makes them pay by winning the national title.
MIDWEST
Team to watch: West Virginia. The six-seed here, they're peaking at the right time, and could have easily been a five-seed. I think they beat Dayton and Kansas to set up a Sweet 16 showdown with Michigan State.
Team to bet against: Ohio State. In general, this bracket is pretty well-laid out. However, I think the Buckeyes peaked too early, and may be overconfident heading into their first-round showdown with Siena. If the Saints press the tempo early, I think they win fairly comfortably.
Who moves on: Louisville. They're simply better than any team in this bracket, and it's not that close.
WEST
Team to watch: Marquette. Put yourself in their shoes. If you were immediately discounted because of an injury to a good but overrated guard, wouldn't you be hell-bent on proving people wrong? They're in my Sweet 16 after wins over Utah State and Missouri.
Team to bet against: UConn, but not right away. They've got an easy path to the Elite 8, where their toughest opponent will be a decent but not great Washington squad. However, they'll face Memphis, who will lock down AJ Price and Jeff Adrien and force Hasheem Thabeet to carry the load. He won't be able to do it.
Who moves on: Memphis. Defense wins championships, and this team shoots free throws MUCH better than last year's squad.
EAST
Team to watch: Texas. The Longhorns took a while to come around, but they have developed into a stout defensive team. Any squad who relies on the three to win games is going to have trouble. cough cough cough DUKE coughcoughcough.
Team to bet against: UCLA. May as well be spelled UGLY. This team is riding the success of the past 50 years, and they're simply not that great. They draw a dangerous VCU team in the first round, and if they make Darren Collison carry the team, he won't be able to do that.
Who moves on: Pitt. The trio of Levance Fields, Sam Young, and DeJuan Blair will be WAY too much to handle.
SOUTH
Team to watch: Gonzaga. As always, the Zags loom a threat in March. The team is very well-balanced, and they do the little things well. As a battle-tested squad, they won't be afraid of any team in this part of the bracket.
Team to bet against: UNC. Yes, they're a very strong team. However, without a healthy Ty Lawson, they're only a very good team as opposed to a great one. I think Butler may give them major headaches in the second round, followed immediately by Gonzaga exploiting UNC's inability to run and bouncing them in the Sweet 16.
Who moves on: Oklahoma. Say what you will about their finish to the season, but Blake Griffin is one of the two best frontcourt players in the country, and his supporting cast is also very talented as well.
FINAL FOUR
Louisville over Memphis: This'll be a tight game, but ultimately, I feel that the ensemble cast of the Cardinals will be too much for Tyreke Evans and Company to overcome.
Pitt over Oklahoma: How much would you pay to see Blair and Griffin boxing each other out on every trip down the floor? I think there's a very good chance of them fouling each other out, and if that happens, Sam Young immediately becomes the best player on the floor. It's a close matchup, but Pitt prevails.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Pitt over Louisville: Blair fouled out of their matchup earlier in the season, and Louisville escaped with the win. That won't happen again. The Cardinals are a great team, but teams with marquee bigs give them a lot of problems. They haven't played one up until now, and Blair makes them pay by winning the national title.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
ROL Bus: Two weeks of recaps
So last week, a Blontourage member got the boot after taking care of a kid by forcing her to give her a pedicure. We're down to six, and the girls get several surprises. Firstly, Ambre and Heather from the past two Rock of Love challenges come back to get dirt on the girls. Secondly, their OWN exes arrive. Hoo boy, this'll be fun.
Highlights: Tattoed brunette's ex reveals he's been banging her for two years, stuck-up Penthouse pet's ex shows he's a psycho, and lone Blontourage member's ex reveals he's going to steal her back from Bret. And we thought the GIRLS fed off of drama. Well, they do, but misery loves company. The separated couples go into "court," and hilarity ensues, including the tattooed brunette trying to punch out Heather. The roundup: Ambre doesn't like Blontourage member, neither likes tattooed brunette, both like stuck-up Penthouse pet and Southern brunette.
Eliminations come up, and it comes down to blonde and tattooed brunette. Tattooed brunette gets the boot, which, honestly, should have happened weeks ago when she seemed to forget how to talk. Blonde gets called down...and he boots her off because part of her is still in love with her boyfriend. Wow. Epic. Four girls left, not one of them blonde. Maybe I'll get around to putting their names in the next entry.
Highlights: Tattoed brunette's ex reveals he's been banging her for two years, stuck-up Penthouse pet's ex shows he's a psycho, and lone Blontourage member's ex reveals he's going to steal her back from Bret. And we thought the GIRLS fed off of drama. Well, they do, but misery loves company. The separated couples go into "court," and hilarity ensues, including the tattooed brunette trying to punch out Heather. The roundup: Ambre doesn't like Blontourage member, neither likes tattooed brunette, both like stuck-up Penthouse pet and Southern brunette.
Eliminations come up, and it comes down to blonde and tattooed brunette. Tattooed brunette gets the boot, which, honestly, should have happened weeks ago when she seemed to forget how to talk. Blonde gets called down...and he boots her off because part of her is still in love with her boyfriend. Wow. Epic. Four girls left, not one of them blonde. Maybe I'll get around to putting their names in the next entry.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Slumdog: Does it live up to the hype?
The answer: Sort of.
You know the story. Filmmakers spend $15,000 or so on a movie, it goes global, makes it big, and it wins a ton of Oscars. The wife and I finally saw it tonight, and I was eager to find out if the movie was as good as so many said it was.
If you're looking for a movie that hits hard for two straight hours, look elsewhere. It takes a while to get going, and the general premise is laid out right away. In Memento style, though, it sort of works backwards in telling the story, and it builds everything up to where the last half-hour to 45 minutes of the movie grabs you and doesn't let go.
However, it comes at a cost. It almost seems like too much happens to our hero. Okay, we get that he grew up in a slum in India and that everyone he encountered wanted to kill him at some point. Move on with the story already. It eventually does, but it seemed like it could have been done quicker. I get suspending disbelief for the sake of drama, but it became the cinematic equivalent of beating a dead horse after a while.
Maybe this is picking nits, though, as the last portion of the movie is tremendously-done. Circles are closed, audiences are put on the edges of seats, and you end up with a protagonist you can really root for. Still, while it's a very well-done movie, I didn't find it worthy of Best Picture honors or anything. It was a fun movie, and while I highly recommend seeing it, know that it could have been better.
RATING: ****1/4
You know the story. Filmmakers spend $15,000 or so on a movie, it goes global, makes it big, and it wins a ton of Oscars. The wife and I finally saw it tonight, and I was eager to find out if the movie was as good as so many said it was.
If you're looking for a movie that hits hard for two straight hours, look elsewhere. It takes a while to get going, and the general premise is laid out right away. In Memento style, though, it sort of works backwards in telling the story, and it builds everything up to where the last half-hour to 45 minutes of the movie grabs you and doesn't let go.
However, it comes at a cost. It almost seems like too much happens to our hero. Okay, we get that he grew up in a slum in India and that everyone he encountered wanted to kill him at some point. Move on with the story already. It eventually does, but it seemed like it could have been done quicker. I get suspending disbelief for the sake of drama, but it became the cinematic equivalent of beating a dead horse after a while.
Maybe this is picking nits, though, as the last portion of the movie is tremendously-done. Circles are closed, audiences are put on the edges of seats, and you end up with a protagonist you can really root for. Still, while it's a very well-done movie, I didn't find it worthy of Best Picture honors or anything. It was a fun movie, and while I highly recommend seeing it, know that it could have been better.
RATING: ****1/4
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Bracket: Round Two
With conference tournaments underway (and in some cases over), it's time to take a stab at another bracket. It's only been two weeks since my last attempt, but the seedings have changed greatly. I encourage feedback; e-mail me with questions, comments, concerns, and criticisms at achampa1@ithaca.edu.
#1
1) UNC
2) Pitt
3) Oklahoma
4) UConn
The consensus top four teams. UNC's win over Duke should give them the outright #1, while Pitt is clearly better than UConn (and can we STOP with the talk of Hasheem Thabeet being God in a Huskies uniform?). Oklahoma splits the two BE schools, with UConn being the most likely to drop down to a 2-seed if they lose in the CT.
#2
1) Michigan State
2) Louisville
3) Memphis
4) Wake Forest
Not much movement here, either. Wake Forest inherits the last #2 seed following Marquette's late-season schedule.
#3
1) Villanova
2) Kansas
3) Marquette
4) Duke
Not a lot of surprises here. 'Nova's tough, Kansas has had a tremendous year despite losing most of their title team from last year, Marquette isn't great but they're still good, and Duke is overrated, but still the second-best team in the ACC.
#4
1) Illinois
2) Missouri
3) Clemson
4) Gonzaga
The first two are unchanged, but Clemson slipped a little while Gonzaga soared in the bracket due to all the ranked teams going down. Consistency goes a long way, and they can validate this seeding with a win over St. Mary's in their CT.
#5
1) LSU
2) Washington
3) Syracuse
4) Arizona State
Some dangerous 5-seeds. I hate the SEC, but LSU is tough. Ditto the Pac-10 and Washington and ASU, and Syracuse is pretty much a consensus five-seed.
#6
1) Butler
2) UCLA
3) Florida State
4) Xavier
Here's where you let the chips fall. Butler's well-coached, for sure. I HATE UCLA, but I can't put them lower than here. Florida State and Xavier are two tough squads, but they've shown inconsistency at times this season.
#7
1) Purdue
2) Ohio State
3) Dayton
4) West Virginia
Two B10 teams, a second A10 team, and a late-coming Big East party-crasher. These are teams who, when on their games, could give 2-seeds MAJOR headaches. I like this group.
#8
1) Texas A+M
2) Oklahoma State
3) Kansas State
4) California
On the contrary, this group may not last long. A+M and OSU are peaking at the right time, but started slowly. KSU could well be out of the tourney with an early CT exit, and California, while consistent, is the fourth-best team in an overrated conference, which isn't worth a whole lot.
#9
1) Utah State
2) Texas
3) BYU
4) Penn State
More sleepers. Utah State's undefeated home campaign is impressive, while Texas' defense is strong, BYU is one of the best teams you haven't heard from, and Penn State is making a big push late in the underrated Big 10.
#10
1) Providence
2) South Carolina
3) Rhode Island
4) Utah
Two mid-level major teams, and two top-level mid-majors. Fitting, huh? Providence is led by a great coach in Keno Davis, SC gets my vote as the SEC's #2 team, Rhode Island is a fun team to watch, and Utah went neck-and-neck with BYU all year.
#11
1) Boston College
2) Arizona
3) Tennessee
4) Florida
These are all lower-end Big Six-conference teams. I really struggled with BC, but due to their wins over UNC and Duke, they're in. Arizona is a team nobody thought would be here, but Russ Pennell really did a great job with the program. Tennessee and Florida are both teams from the underachieving SEC, which somehow gets four bids.
#12
1) St. Mary's
2) Siena
3) Michigan
4) Northern Iowa
The ever-dangerous 12-seeds are tough. St. Mary's is led by all-world guard Patrick Mills, Siena is insanely tough when given the chance to control the tempo, Michigan has several big wins this year (and is the last at-large team in the tournament), and UNI pushed hard late to win the Mo Valley, which is a strong conference.
#13
1) VCU
2) Charleston
3) Cornell
4) Binghamton
#14
1) Buffalo
2) Arkansas Little Rock
3) Robert Morris
4) Morgan State
#15
1) E. Tennessee State
2) Weber State
3) North Dakota State
4) American
#16
1) Stephen F. Austin
2) Radford
3) Morehead State
PLAY IN) CSU Northridge/Alabama State
Conference-tournament winners.
LAST FIVE TEAMS OUT: Temple, New Mexico, Auburn, Tulsa, Niagara
#1
1) UNC
2) Pitt
3) Oklahoma
4) UConn
The consensus top four teams. UNC's win over Duke should give them the outright #1, while Pitt is clearly better than UConn (and can we STOP with the talk of Hasheem Thabeet being God in a Huskies uniform?). Oklahoma splits the two BE schools, with UConn being the most likely to drop down to a 2-seed if they lose in the CT.
#2
1) Michigan State
2) Louisville
3) Memphis
4) Wake Forest
Not much movement here, either. Wake Forest inherits the last #2 seed following Marquette's late-season schedule.
#3
1) Villanova
2) Kansas
3) Marquette
4) Duke
Not a lot of surprises here. 'Nova's tough, Kansas has had a tremendous year despite losing most of their title team from last year, Marquette isn't great but they're still good, and Duke is overrated, but still the second-best team in the ACC.
#4
1) Illinois
2) Missouri
3) Clemson
4) Gonzaga
The first two are unchanged, but Clemson slipped a little while Gonzaga soared in the bracket due to all the ranked teams going down. Consistency goes a long way, and they can validate this seeding with a win over St. Mary's in their CT.
#5
1) LSU
2) Washington
3) Syracuse
4) Arizona State
Some dangerous 5-seeds. I hate the SEC, but LSU is tough. Ditto the Pac-10 and Washington and ASU, and Syracuse is pretty much a consensus five-seed.
#6
1) Butler
2) UCLA
3) Florida State
4) Xavier
Here's where you let the chips fall. Butler's well-coached, for sure. I HATE UCLA, but I can't put them lower than here. Florida State and Xavier are two tough squads, but they've shown inconsistency at times this season.
#7
1) Purdue
2) Ohio State
3) Dayton
4) West Virginia
Two B10 teams, a second A10 team, and a late-coming Big East party-crasher. These are teams who, when on their games, could give 2-seeds MAJOR headaches. I like this group.
#8
1) Texas A+M
2) Oklahoma State
3) Kansas State
4) California
On the contrary, this group may not last long. A+M and OSU are peaking at the right time, but started slowly. KSU could well be out of the tourney with an early CT exit, and California, while consistent, is the fourth-best team in an overrated conference, which isn't worth a whole lot.
#9
1) Utah State
2) Texas
3) BYU
4) Penn State
More sleepers. Utah State's undefeated home campaign is impressive, while Texas' defense is strong, BYU is one of the best teams you haven't heard from, and Penn State is making a big push late in the underrated Big 10.
#10
1) Providence
2) South Carolina
3) Rhode Island
4) Utah
Two mid-level major teams, and two top-level mid-majors. Fitting, huh? Providence is led by a great coach in Keno Davis, SC gets my vote as the SEC's #2 team, Rhode Island is a fun team to watch, and Utah went neck-and-neck with BYU all year.
#11
1) Boston College
2) Arizona
3) Tennessee
4) Florida
These are all lower-end Big Six-conference teams. I really struggled with BC, but due to their wins over UNC and Duke, they're in. Arizona is a team nobody thought would be here, but Russ Pennell really did a great job with the program. Tennessee and Florida are both teams from the underachieving SEC, which somehow gets four bids.
#12
1) St. Mary's
2) Siena
3) Michigan
4) Northern Iowa
The ever-dangerous 12-seeds are tough. St. Mary's is led by all-world guard Patrick Mills, Siena is insanely tough when given the chance to control the tempo, Michigan has several big wins this year (and is the last at-large team in the tournament), and UNI pushed hard late to win the Mo Valley, which is a strong conference.
#13
1) VCU
2) Charleston
3) Cornell
4) Binghamton
#14
1) Buffalo
2) Arkansas Little Rock
3) Robert Morris
4) Morgan State
#15
1) E. Tennessee State
2) Weber State
3) North Dakota State
4) American
#16
1) Stephen F. Austin
2) Radford
3) Morehead State
PLAY IN) CSU Northridge/Alabama State
Conference-tournament winners.
LAST FIVE TEAMS OUT: Temple, New Mexico, Auburn, Tulsa, Niagara
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