GAME #1: KANSAS VS. SYRACUSE
This will be a war between two evenly-matched teams. Every matchup meshes so well; Collins vs. Rautins, Henry vs. Johnson, Aldrich vs. Onuaku, Self vs. Boeheim. I see this being like a heavyweight prizefight, with both sides throwing haymakers from bell to bell. Ultimately, though, you need to side with experience. Kansas has been here before, and Sharron Collins is a leader who will not make mistakes or allow those around him to do so at crunch-time. I'm siding with Kansas for that reason.
GAME #2: WEST VIRGINIA VS. BAYLOR
This is where Baylor's storybook run ends. The Bears had a much easier road to Indianapolis than WVU did, and I don't see the Bears topping West Virginia. The Mountaineers are just too complete a team, and their defense will prove to be the key to a victory.
NATIONAL TITLE GAME: KANSAS VS. WEST VIRGINIA
Rock Chalk Jayhawk! Kansas wins its second title under Bill Self with a determined, physical showing against West Virginia. The key to this game will be the tempo; if WVU can get out and run, thus taking Aldrich out of the game as much as possible, they'll have the upper hand. Unfortunately for the second Big East team in as many games, that doesn't happen, and Kansas slows down the athletic Mountaineers to the pace the Jayhawks are used to playing. Because of this, Kansas comes out on top, 72-66.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Bracket Thoughts: South Region
POTENTIAL CINDERELLA: (7) Richmond. Again, I really, REALLY like the A10 this year. Richmond gave Temple all they could handle in the conference tourney, and they'll do the same to Villanova in the second round (much like Vanderbilt in the West, more on them later). They have sharpshooting guards and, like the other two A10 teams in the tournament, play very tough defense. This is the epitome of the pesky small team that will not go away, and I have them in the Sweet 16 for that precise reason.
Honorable mention: (12) Utah State. By seeding, they win here, but with Purdue and Texas A&M so vulnerable, people EXPECT either these guys or 13th-seeded Siena to be one of the last 16 teams remaining. I give the edge to Utah State, though. They were one of the last teams in, should have been much higher than this, and will show why on the first weekend.
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (2) Villanova. How does a team lose 6 of their last 10, fail to record a quality win since January, yet still get a 2-seed? I'm baffled by this. Yes, Scottie Reynolds may have a claim to being the best player in the best conference in college basketball. However, the Wildcats peaked way too early. I have them losing to the Spiders in the second round, and they will certainly not make it past the round of 16.
Honorable mention: (4) Purdue. Has any 13-seed been FAVORED in the first round the way Siena is now? Enough said.
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (1) Duke vs. (9) Louisville, second round. In a game featuring so many streaky players, the outcome could swing so many ways. Duke can obviously light it up from the outside, but Louisville's Edgar Sosa does a lot (good and bad), and Samardo Samuels could expose Duke's Brian Zoubek given the chance. I think the Blue Devils have too many weapons and prevail, but Pitino's group is probably Duke's toughest opponent in the first three rounds by leaps and bounds.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: (3) Baylor. This is easily the most bottom-heavy region in the bracket, and it plays into Baylor's hands. They'll have a tough second-round matchup with Notre Dame, but with the game being in New Orleans, Baylor should have a solid fanbase there. Then comes either Richmond or Nova, followed by a Duke team that has ZERO inside game. Given all the program has gone through this decade, this is a tremendous story, one that should end with a trip to the Final Four.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Duke over (16) Play-in winner
(9) Louisville over (8) California
(12) Utah State over (5) Texas A&M
(13) Siena over (4) Purdue
(6) Notre Dame over (11) Old Dominion
(3) Baylor over (14) Sam Houston State
(7) Richmond over (10) St. Mary's
(2) Villanova over (15) Robert Morris
(1) Duke over (9) Louisville
(12) Utah State over (13) Siena
(3) Baylor over (6) Notre Dame
(7) Richmond over (2) Villanova
(1) Duke over (12) Utah State
(3) Baylor over (7) Richmond
(3) Baylor over (1) Duke
Honorable mention: (12) Utah State. By seeding, they win here, but with Purdue and Texas A&M so vulnerable, people EXPECT either these guys or 13th-seeded Siena to be one of the last 16 teams remaining. I give the edge to Utah State, though. They were one of the last teams in, should have been much higher than this, and will show why on the first weekend.
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (2) Villanova. How does a team lose 6 of their last 10, fail to record a quality win since January, yet still get a 2-seed? I'm baffled by this. Yes, Scottie Reynolds may have a claim to being the best player in the best conference in college basketball. However, the Wildcats peaked way too early. I have them losing to the Spiders in the second round, and they will certainly not make it past the round of 16.
Honorable mention: (4) Purdue. Has any 13-seed been FAVORED in the first round the way Siena is now? Enough said.
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (1) Duke vs. (9) Louisville, second round. In a game featuring so many streaky players, the outcome could swing so many ways. Duke can obviously light it up from the outside, but Louisville's Edgar Sosa does a lot (good and bad), and Samardo Samuels could expose Duke's Brian Zoubek given the chance. I think the Blue Devils have too many weapons and prevail, but Pitino's group is probably Duke's toughest opponent in the first three rounds by leaps and bounds.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: (3) Baylor. This is easily the most bottom-heavy region in the bracket, and it plays into Baylor's hands. They'll have a tough second-round matchup with Notre Dame, but with the game being in New Orleans, Baylor should have a solid fanbase there. Then comes either Richmond or Nova, followed by a Duke team that has ZERO inside game. Given all the program has gone through this decade, this is a tremendous story, one that should end with a trip to the Final Four.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Duke over (16) Play-in winner
(9) Louisville over (8) California
(12) Utah State over (5) Texas A&M
(13) Siena over (4) Purdue
(6) Notre Dame over (11) Old Dominion
(3) Baylor over (14) Sam Houston State
(7) Richmond over (10) St. Mary's
(2) Villanova over (15) Robert Morris
(1) Duke over (9) Louisville
(12) Utah State over (13) Siena
(3) Baylor over (6) Notre Dame
(7) Richmond over (2) Villanova
(1) Duke over (12) Utah State
(3) Baylor over (7) Richmond
(3) Baylor over (1) Duke
Bracket Thoughts: East Region
POTENTIAL CINDERELLA: (5) Temple. #5 is high for a Cinderella story, but I really respect the Atlantic 10 this year. Temple is very well-rounded, and they finished the season as strongly as you could possibly hope to do so. Cornell is a tough 12-seed, but Temple is the better team, and they should make it past both the Big Red and Wisconsin en route to a showdown with Kentucky.
Honorable mention: (14) Montana. If you didn't see Anthony Johnson beat Weber State 1-on-5 in the second half of the Big Sky tournament championship, you missed one of the great individual performances in college basketball this season. If left unguarded, he WILL make shots, and he could give third-seeded New Mexico major headaches in the first round.
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (7) Clemson. Find me one NCAA game Clemson has won in the past several years. You can't. The makeup of the team never changes from season to season. They have several good athletes who take plays off and who do not knock down free throws when they matter. I actually had them OUT of my field of 65, and as much as I don't like Missouri, I think the Big 12's Tigers send the ACC's Tigers back to South Carolina.
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (5) Temple vs. (12) Cornell, first round. Two hungry mid-majors going at it for respect. Watching Cornell's Jeff Foote trying to muscle defenders around in Temple's staunch defense will be a treat, as will seeing if sharpshooter Ryan Wittman can help carry the Big Red to victory. As I said earlier, I think the Owls win, but that doesn't mean the game won't be hotly-contested from tip to buzzer.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: (2) West Virginia. The Big East is the best conference in college basketball, and at least last week, the Mountaineers were the best team in it. They play suffocating defense, and they have plenty of athletes who can dribble, pass, and score as well as anyone in the country. It's a tough group, and as good as Kentucky is, I think experience and being battle-tested wins out this time of year.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Kentucky over (16) ETSU
(8) Texas over (9) Wake Forest
(5) Temple over (12) Cornell
(4) Wisconsin over (13) Wofford
(6) Marquette over (11) Washington
(3) New Mexico over (14) Montana
(10) Missouri over (7) Clemson
(2) WVU over (15) Morgan State
(1) Kentucky over (8) Texas
(5) Temple over (4) Wisconsin
(6) Marquette over (3) New Mexico
(2) WVU over (10) Missouri
(1) Kentucky over (5) Temple
(2) WVU over (6) Marquette
(2) WVU over (1) Kentucky
Honorable mention: (14) Montana. If you didn't see Anthony Johnson beat Weber State 1-on-5 in the second half of the Big Sky tournament championship, you missed one of the great individual performances in college basketball this season. If left unguarded, he WILL make shots, and he could give third-seeded New Mexico major headaches in the first round.
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (7) Clemson. Find me one NCAA game Clemson has won in the past several years. You can't. The makeup of the team never changes from season to season. They have several good athletes who take plays off and who do not knock down free throws when they matter. I actually had them OUT of my field of 65, and as much as I don't like Missouri, I think the Big 12's Tigers send the ACC's Tigers back to South Carolina.
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (5) Temple vs. (12) Cornell, first round. Two hungry mid-majors going at it for respect. Watching Cornell's Jeff Foote trying to muscle defenders around in Temple's staunch defense will be a treat, as will seeing if sharpshooter Ryan Wittman can help carry the Big Red to victory. As I said earlier, I think the Owls win, but that doesn't mean the game won't be hotly-contested from tip to buzzer.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: (2) West Virginia. The Big East is the best conference in college basketball, and at least last week, the Mountaineers were the best team in it. They play suffocating defense, and they have plenty of athletes who can dribble, pass, and score as well as anyone in the country. It's a tough group, and as good as Kentucky is, I think experience and being battle-tested wins out this time of year.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Kentucky over (16) ETSU
(8) Texas over (9) Wake Forest
(5) Temple over (12) Cornell
(4) Wisconsin over (13) Wofford
(6) Marquette over (11) Washington
(3) New Mexico over (14) Montana
(10) Missouri over (7) Clemson
(2) WVU over (15) Morgan State
(1) Kentucky over (8) Texas
(5) Temple over (4) Wisconsin
(6) Marquette over (3) New Mexico
(2) WVU over (10) Missouri
(1) Kentucky over (5) Temple
(2) WVU over (6) Marquette
(2) WVU over (1) Kentucky
Bracket Thoughts: West Region
POTENTIAL CINDERELLA: (13) Murray State. This is one instance where the committee seeded a mid-major correctly. Murray State won 30 games this year. I don't care who you're playing; if you can win 30 games, you deserve to get a bone thrown your way. These guys certainly got one, too, as they face Vanderbilt (more on them in a minute). This is a very winnable matchup in an otherwise chalk-filled bracket.
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (4) Vanderbilt. These guys beat Tennessee twice, which is fine and good. Beyond that, their "quality wins" against tournament teams are over Florida and Missouri, two of the last teams into the Big Dance. That's not the resume of a 4-seed, and I think they're extremely vulnerable against a hungry Murray State bunch.
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (1) Syracuse vs. (5) Butler, Sweet 16. I was drinking the Butler Kool-Aid Sunday, and actually thought they could sneak onto the 2-line. They're a well-rounded group who went 28-4 this year, and they could end up facing the 12 and 13-seeds in the first two rounds, which is as easy a road to the Sweet 16 as you'll find. Meanwhile, Syracuse is on pins and needles awaiting more word about center Arinze Onuaku's quad injury. As good as Kris Joseph is, he is not a natural power forward, and Butler could look to exploit that if AO isn't A-OK.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: Syracuse. Simply put, on pure talent alone, they're one of the best teams in the nation. Right now, it looks like Onuaku's quad will at least be ready for SOME action in the round of 16, and that should be enough to propel the Orange past Kansas State and all other challengers.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Syracuse over (16) Vermont
(8) Gonzaga over (9) Florida State
(5) Butler over (12) UTEP
(13) Murray State over (4) Vanderbilt
(6) Xavier over (11) Minnesota
(3) Pitt over (14) Oakland
(7) BYU over (10) Florida
(2) Kansas State over (15) North Texas
(1) Syracuse over (8) Gonzaga
(5) Butler over (13) Murray State
(3) Pitt over (6) Xavier
(2) Kansas State over (7) BYU
(1) Syracuse over (5) Butler
(2) Kansas State over (3) Pitt
(1) Syracuse over (2) Kansas State
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (4) Vanderbilt. These guys beat Tennessee twice, which is fine and good. Beyond that, their "quality wins" against tournament teams are over Florida and Missouri, two of the last teams into the Big Dance. That's not the resume of a 4-seed, and I think they're extremely vulnerable against a hungry Murray State bunch.
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (1) Syracuse vs. (5) Butler, Sweet 16. I was drinking the Butler Kool-Aid Sunday, and actually thought they could sneak onto the 2-line. They're a well-rounded group who went 28-4 this year, and they could end up facing the 12 and 13-seeds in the first two rounds, which is as easy a road to the Sweet 16 as you'll find. Meanwhile, Syracuse is on pins and needles awaiting more word about center Arinze Onuaku's quad injury. As good as Kris Joseph is, he is not a natural power forward, and Butler could look to exploit that if AO isn't A-OK.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: Syracuse. Simply put, on pure talent alone, they're one of the best teams in the nation. Right now, it looks like Onuaku's quad will at least be ready for SOME action in the round of 16, and that should be enough to propel the Orange past Kansas State and all other challengers.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Syracuse over (16) Vermont
(8) Gonzaga over (9) Florida State
(5) Butler over (12) UTEP
(13) Murray State over (4) Vanderbilt
(6) Xavier over (11) Minnesota
(3) Pitt over (14) Oakland
(7) BYU over (10) Florida
(2) Kansas State over (15) North Texas
(1) Syracuse over (8) Gonzaga
(5) Butler over (13) Murray State
(3) Pitt over (6) Xavier
(2) Kansas State over (7) BYU
(1) Syracuse over (5) Butler
(2) Kansas State over (3) Pitt
(1) Syracuse over (2) Kansas State
Bracket Thoughts: Midwest Region
I'm back again, this time with an idea inspired by the one and only Josh Canu (whose blog, , is a must-read). I'm going through all the regionals of the upcoming NCAA tournament, and I'll start with the Midwest, aka the Region of Death.
POTENTIAL CINDERELLA: (11) San Diego State. I don't have an issue with many of the teams in the NCAA tournament. However, I have a BIG issue with where mid-majors were seeded, most notably the Aztecs at #11. The Mountain West was better than some major conferences this year, and SDSU won its conference tournament. I had them pegged as a 7-seed, but they got the shaft. They'll face a good but very beatable Tennessee team in the first round, and I think they're going to be motivated to prove the seeding committee wrong.
Honorable mention: (9) Northern Iowa. They weren't shafted horribly (I had them as a 7 as well), but they're a consistent group with considerable talent. Their first-round game with UNLV should be fun to watch, despite the fact that the winner gets KU in the second round.
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (7) Oklahoma State. This bracket is actually pretty well-constructed in terms of ranking where the teams stood on the S-Curve, but Oklahoma State is a little overrated. Their guard play is solid, but the Big 12 is a three-team conference this year, and Oklahoma State never proved to be an elite team. I had them as a 9, and I think they'll lose a hard-fought first-round game against Georgia Tech. They'd better; a second-round Oklahoma State-Ohio State game would have fans OSU'd out by halftime.
Honorable mention: (14) Ohio. This is picking nits about a team that will get destroyed early. But how does a team with 14 losses in a bad, low-level conference get a 14-seed over other low-level teams that were more impressive? The Bobcats started the regular season 6-0, only to go less than .500 (13-14) before three straight wins in their conference tournament. This makes them that much more impressive over teams like 25-9 Vermont...how?
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Georgetown, Sweet 16. Both teams peaked at the right times in conference tournaments that were fun to watch. I think this is an awesome matchup, but that OSU's dependence on Evan Turner will ultimately cost them. Many times, the "stand around and wait for Evan to make a play" offense nearly backfired against lesser Big 10 teams who couldn't capitalize. The Hoyas are more well-rounded, and Greg Monroe has really come into form down the stretch.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: Kansas. Talk about the group of death all you want, it's irrelevant. They've got 5 future NBA contributors on their starting lineup, they're experienced in big-game situations, and I think that combination wins out.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Kansas over (16) Lehigh
(9) Northern Iowa over (8) UNLV
(5) Michigan State over (12) New Mexico State
(4) Maryland over (13) Houston
(11) San Diego State over (6) Tennessee
(3) Georgetown over (14) Ohio
(10) Georgia Tech over (7) Oklahoma State
(2) Ohio State over (15) UC-Santa Barbara
(1) Kansas over (9) Northern Iowa
(5) Michigan State over (4) Maryland
(3) Georgetown over (11) San Diego State
(2) Ohio State over (10) Georgia Tech
(1) Kansas over (5) Michigan State
(3) Georgetown over (2) Ohio State
(1) Kansas over (3) Georgetown
POTENTIAL CINDERELLA: (11) San Diego State. I don't have an issue with many of the teams in the NCAA tournament. However, I have a BIG issue with where mid-majors were seeded, most notably the Aztecs at #11. The Mountain West was better than some major conferences this year, and SDSU won its conference tournament. I had them pegged as a 7-seed, but they got the shaft. They'll face a good but very beatable Tennessee team in the first round, and I think they're going to be motivated to prove the seeding committee wrong.
Honorable mention: (9) Northern Iowa. They weren't shafted horribly (I had them as a 7 as well), but they're a consistent group with considerable talent. Their first-round game with UNLV should be fun to watch, despite the fact that the winner gets KU in the second round.
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (7) Oklahoma State. This bracket is actually pretty well-constructed in terms of ranking where the teams stood on the S-Curve, but Oklahoma State is a little overrated. Their guard play is solid, but the Big 12 is a three-team conference this year, and Oklahoma State never proved to be an elite team. I had them as a 9, and I think they'll lose a hard-fought first-round game against Georgia Tech. They'd better; a second-round Oklahoma State-Ohio State game would have fans OSU'd out by halftime.
Honorable mention: (14) Ohio. This is picking nits about a team that will get destroyed early. But how does a team with 14 losses in a bad, low-level conference get a 14-seed over other low-level teams that were more impressive? The Bobcats started the regular season 6-0, only to go less than .500 (13-14) before three straight wins in their conference tournament. This makes them that much more impressive over teams like 25-9 Vermont...how?
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Georgetown, Sweet 16. Both teams peaked at the right times in conference tournaments that were fun to watch. I think this is an awesome matchup, but that OSU's dependence on Evan Turner will ultimately cost them. Many times, the "stand around and wait for Evan to make a play" offense nearly backfired against lesser Big 10 teams who couldn't capitalize. The Hoyas are more well-rounded, and Greg Monroe has really come into form down the stretch.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: Kansas. Talk about the group of death all you want, it's irrelevant. They've got 5 future NBA contributors on their starting lineup, they're experienced in big-game situations, and I think that combination wins out.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Kansas over (16) Lehigh
(9) Northern Iowa over (8) UNLV
(5) Michigan State over (12) New Mexico State
(4) Maryland over (13) Houston
(11) San Diego State over (6) Tennessee
(3) Georgetown over (14) Ohio
(10) Georgia Tech over (7) Oklahoma State
(2) Ohio State over (15) UC-Santa Barbara
(1) Kansas over (9) Northern Iowa
(5) Michigan State over (4) Maryland
(3) Georgetown over (11) San Diego State
(2) Ohio State over (10) Georgia Tech
(1) Kansas over (5) Michigan State
(3) Georgetown over (2) Ohio State
(1) Kansas over (3) Georgetown
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