I begin my first poker blog entry with some exposition. Bugsy's Club, the website I traditionally played on due to its Mac-friendly interface, went out of business, and PokerStars ran a promotion for members of BC to go over and play in freerolls with prize pools of $300 all week. I don't play much, but I don't stink, so off I went. I had assured myself of cashing (42 big cents!) when this hand came up; we're not talking big money here, but it's the principle, and if this adds a poker dimension to my blog, then so be it. I'll go stage by stage here, and we'll see how it goes.
Dealt to horsefan3277 [4h Ah]: Not a horrible hand. I usually tend to stay away from Ace-rag hands, but when they're suited in an eight-handed game like this where the action has been loose, I'll limp in and see if I get lucky. So four players folded, and I called the $500 minimum (I had about $6,300 in chips before this hand).
However, golias1, who had me outnumbered in chips by about a 2:1 ratio, raised another $500 to $1,000. Another player folded, blomber, who had about $20,000, called, and after some deliberation, I called as well to send us to the flop.
FLOP *** [Jh 5h Kh]
In the words of WPT commentator Mike Sexton, bingo, bango, bongo! I had flopped the nut flush, and now the question was, "How do I play the hand?" blomber checked, and I decided to limp in. After all, I was raised pre-flop, and if another raise came my way, I'd move over the top, going all-in and giving myself a chance to double or triple up. However, golias1 decided to just call, and blomber folded. Rats.
*** TURN *** [Jh 5h Kh] [Jd]
No card could have scared me on this turn except MAYBE a 5. Anyone who had pocket jacks or pocket kings would have raised much more pre-flop, and I figured someone with KJ or 55 would have seen the top two pair or trips and probably raised me on the flop. I bet $1,000, and lo and behold, golias1 goes all-in for a total of just over $9,600, thereby putting me all-in. Needless to say, I called, and turned over the nut flush.
*** RIVER *** [Jh 5h Kh Jd] [Js]*** SHOW DOWN ***horsefan3277: shows [4h Ah] (a flush, Ace high)golias1: shows [Jc Qs] (four of a kind, Jacks)
...yeah, I'm still hurting from that one.
Let's do some math. golias1, who did not play this hand too badly (more on that later), had ten outs. There were three queens, three kings, and three fives for a possible full boat, and, of course, the lone jack for quads. Yeah, he was dominated on the turn, but he still had $5,000 to play with if he lost and he had a not-insignificant number of outs. This wasn't aces getting cracked by 7-2 or anything.
If I was him, I probably play the hand in pretty similar fashion up until the turn. I don't necessarily love the pre-flop raise, but if it was a power play designed to get shorter stacks out of the hand and steal blinds, then I can understand it. Me limping in on the flop gave him a chance to see a pretty-much-free card on the turn, where he went all-in thinking I had squat. The all-in move was another aggressive play, but it makes sense. He's not crippled if he loses the hand, and given my betting patterns, he probably put me on something like K-10.
In general, that's poker. Ultimately, I got all my money in with the best hand, only to see it cracked by a miracle jack. Still, I made some cash, and in a freeroll tournament, that's not bad. If any more hands of note come up, I'll be sure to post them here, so keep an eye out.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
The NutSAK Preview of the Big Dance
Gonna go region by region here with things to watch for, as well as who comes out of them and into the Final Four.
MIDWEST
Team to watch: West Virginia. The six-seed here, they're peaking at the right time, and could have easily been a five-seed. I think they beat Dayton and Kansas to set up a Sweet 16 showdown with Michigan State.
Team to bet against: Ohio State. In general, this bracket is pretty well-laid out. However, I think the Buckeyes peaked too early, and may be overconfident heading into their first-round showdown with Siena. If the Saints press the tempo early, I think they win fairly comfortably.
Who moves on: Louisville. They're simply better than any team in this bracket, and it's not that close.
WEST
Team to watch: Marquette. Put yourself in their shoes. If you were immediately discounted because of an injury to a good but overrated guard, wouldn't you be hell-bent on proving people wrong? They're in my Sweet 16 after wins over Utah State and Missouri.
Team to bet against: UConn, but not right away. They've got an easy path to the Elite 8, where their toughest opponent will be a decent but not great Washington squad. However, they'll face Memphis, who will lock down AJ Price and Jeff Adrien and force Hasheem Thabeet to carry the load. He won't be able to do it.
Who moves on: Memphis. Defense wins championships, and this team shoots free throws MUCH better than last year's squad.
EAST
Team to watch: Texas. The Longhorns took a while to come around, but they have developed into a stout defensive team. Any squad who relies on the three to win games is going to have trouble. cough cough cough DUKE coughcoughcough.
Team to bet against: UCLA. May as well be spelled UGLY. This team is riding the success of the past 50 years, and they're simply not that great. They draw a dangerous VCU team in the first round, and if they make Darren Collison carry the team, he won't be able to do that.
Who moves on: Pitt. The trio of Levance Fields, Sam Young, and DeJuan Blair will be WAY too much to handle.
SOUTH
Team to watch: Gonzaga. As always, the Zags loom a threat in March. The team is very well-balanced, and they do the little things well. As a battle-tested squad, they won't be afraid of any team in this part of the bracket.
Team to bet against: UNC. Yes, they're a very strong team. However, without a healthy Ty Lawson, they're only a very good team as opposed to a great one. I think Butler may give them major headaches in the second round, followed immediately by Gonzaga exploiting UNC's inability to run and bouncing them in the Sweet 16.
Who moves on: Oklahoma. Say what you will about their finish to the season, but Blake Griffin is one of the two best frontcourt players in the country, and his supporting cast is also very talented as well.
FINAL FOUR
Louisville over Memphis: This'll be a tight game, but ultimately, I feel that the ensemble cast of the Cardinals will be too much for Tyreke Evans and Company to overcome.
Pitt over Oklahoma: How much would you pay to see Blair and Griffin boxing each other out on every trip down the floor? I think there's a very good chance of them fouling each other out, and if that happens, Sam Young immediately becomes the best player on the floor. It's a close matchup, but Pitt prevails.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Pitt over Louisville: Blair fouled out of their matchup earlier in the season, and Louisville escaped with the win. That won't happen again. The Cardinals are a great team, but teams with marquee bigs give them a lot of problems. They haven't played one up until now, and Blair makes them pay by winning the national title.
MIDWEST
Team to watch: West Virginia. The six-seed here, they're peaking at the right time, and could have easily been a five-seed. I think they beat Dayton and Kansas to set up a Sweet 16 showdown with Michigan State.
Team to bet against: Ohio State. In general, this bracket is pretty well-laid out. However, I think the Buckeyes peaked too early, and may be overconfident heading into their first-round showdown with Siena. If the Saints press the tempo early, I think they win fairly comfortably.
Who moves on: Louisville. They're simply better than any team in this bracket, and it's not that close.
WEST
Team to watch: Marquette. Put yourself in their shoes. If you were immediately discounted because of an injury to a good but overrated guard, wouldn't you be hell-bent on proving people wrong? They're in my Sweet 16 after wins over Utah State and Missouri.
Team to bet against: UConn, but not right away. They've got an easy path to the Elite 8, where their toughest opponent will be a decent but not great Washington squad. However, they'll face Memphis, who will lock down AJ Price and Jeff Adrien and force Hasheem Thabeet to carry the load. He won't be able to do it.
Who moves on: Memphis. Defense wins championships, and this team shoots free throws MUCH better than last year's squad.
EAST
Team to watch: Texas. The Longhorns took a while to come around, but they have developed into a stout defensive team. Any squad who relies on the three to win games is going to have trouble. cough cough cough DUKE coughcoughcough.
Team to bet against: UCLA. May as well be spelled UGLY. This team is riding the success of the past 50 years, and they're simply not that great. They draw a dangerous VCU team in the first round, and if they make Darren Collison carry the team, he won't be able to do that.
Who moves on: Pitt. The trio of Levance Fields, Sam Young, and DeJuan Blair will be WAY too much to handle.
SOUTH
Team to watch: Gonzaga. As always, the Zags loom a threat in March. The team is very well-balanced, and they do the little things well. As a battle-tested squad, they won't be afraid of any team in this part of the bracket.
Team to bet against: UNC. Yes, they're a very strong team. However, without a healthy Ty Lawson, they're only a very good team as opposed to a great one. I think Butler may give them major headaches in the second round, followed immediately by Gonzaga exploiting UNC's inability to run and bouncing them in the Sweet 16.
Who moves on: Oklahoma. Say what you will about their finish to the season, but Blake Griffin is one of the two best frontcourt players in the country, and his supporting cast is also very talented as well.
FINAL FOUR
Louisville over Memphis: This'll be a tight game, but ultimately, I feel that the ensemble cast of the Cardinals will be too much for Tyreke Evans and Company to overcome.
Pitt over Oklahoma: How much would you pay to see Blair and Griffin boxing each other out on every trip down the floor? I think there's a very good chance of them fouling each other out, and if that happens, Sam Young immediately becomes the best player on the floor. It's a close matchup, but Pitt prevails.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Pitt over Louisville: Blair fouled out of their matchup earlier in the season, and Louisville escaped with the win. That won't happen again. The Cardinals are a great team, but teams with marquee bigs give them a lot of problems. They haven't played one up until now, and Blair makes them pay by winning the national title.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
ROL Bus: Two weeks of recaps
So last week, a Blontourage member got the boot after taking care of a kid by forcing her to give her a pedicure. We're down to six, and the girls get several surprises. Firstly, Ambre and Heather from the past two Rock of Love challenges come back to get dirt on the girls. Secondly, their OWN exes arrive. Hoo boy, this'll be fun.
Highlights: Tattoed brunette's ex reveals he's been banging her for two years, stuck-up Penthouse pet's ex shows he's a psycho, and lone Blontourage member's ex reveals he's going to steal her back from Bret. And we thought the GIRLS fed off of drama. Well, they do, but misery loves company. The separated couples go into "court," and hilarity ensues, including the tattooed brunette trying to punch out Heather. The roundup: Ambre doesn't like Blontourage member, neither likes tattooed brunette, both like stuck-up Penthouse pet and Southern brunette.
Eliminations come up, and it comes down to blonde and tattooed brunette. Tattooed brunette gets the boot, which, honestly, should have happened weeks ago when she seemed to forget how to talk. Blonde gets called down...and he boots her off because part of her is still in love with her boyfriend. Wow. Epic. Four girls left, not one of them blonde. Maybe I'll get around to putting their names in the next entry.
Highlights: Tattoed brunette's ex reveals he's been banging her for two years, stuck-up Penthouse pet's ex shows he's a psycho, and lone Blontourage member's ex reveals he's going to steal her back from Bret. And we thought the GIRLS fed off of drama. Well, they do, but misery loves company. The separated couples go into "court," and hilarity ensues, including the tattooed brunette trying to punch out Heather. The roundup: Ambre doesn't like Blontourage member, neither likes tattooed brunette, both like stuck-up Penthouse pet and Southern brunette.
Eliminations come up, and it comes down to blonde and tattooed brunette. Tattooed brunette gets the boot, which, honestly, should have happened weeks ago when she seemed to forget how to talk. Blonde gets called down...and he boots her off because part of her is still in love with her boyfriend. Wow. Epic. Four girls left, not one of them blonde. Maybe I'll get around to putting their names in the next entry.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Slumdog: Does it live up to the hype?
The answer: Sort of.
You know the story. Filmmakers spend $15,000 or so on a movie, it goes global, makes it big, and it wins a ton of Oscars. The wife and I finally saw it tonight, and I was eager to find out if the movie was as good as so many said it was.
If you're looking for a movie that hits hard for two straight hours, look elsewhere. It takes a while to get going, and the general premise is laid out right away. In Memento style, though, it sort of works backwards in telling the story, and it builds everything up to where the last half-hour to 45 minutes of the movie grabs you and doesn't let go.
However, it comes at a cost. It almost seems like too much happens to our hero. Okay, we get that he grew up in a slum in India and that everyone he encountered wanted to kill him at some point. Move on with the story already. It eventually does, but it seemed like it could have been done quicker. I get suspending disbelief for the sake of drama, but it became the cinematic equivalent of beating a dead horse after a while.
Maybe this is picking nits, though, as the last portion of the movie is tremendously-done. Circles are closed, audiences are put on the edges of seats, and you end up with a protagonist you can really root for. Still, while it's a very well-done movie, I didn't find it worthy of Best Picture honors or anything. It was a fun movie, and while I highly recommend seeing it, know that it could have been better.
RATING: ****1/4
You know the story. Filmmakers spend $15,000 or so on a movie, it goes global, makes it big, and it wins a ton of Oscars. The wife and I finally saw it tonight, and I was eager to find out if the movie was as good as so many said it was.
If you're looking for a movie that hits hard for two straight hours, look elsewhere. It takes a while to get going, and the general premise is laid out right away. In Memento style, though, it sort of works backwards in telling the story, and it builds everything up to where the last half-hour to 45 minutes of the movie grabs you and doesn't let go.
However, it comes at a cost. It almost seems like too much happens to our hero. Okay, we get that he grew up in a slum in India and that everyone he encountered wanted to kill him at some point. Move on with the story already. It eventually does, but it seemed like it could have been done quicker. I get suspending disbelief for the sake of drama, but it became the cinematic equivalent of beating a dead horse after a while.
Maybe this is picking nits, though, as the last portion of the movie is tremendously-done. Circles are closed, audiences are put on the edges of seats, and you end up with a protagonist you can really root for. Still, while it's a very well-done movie, I didn't find it worthy of Best Picture honors or anything. It was a fun movie, and while I highly recommend seeing it, know that it could have been better.
RATING: ****1/4
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Bracket: Round Two
With conference tournaments underway (and in some cases over), it's time to take a stab at another bracket. It's only been two weeks since my last attempt, but the seedings have changed greatly. I encourage feedback; e-mail me with questions, comments, concerns, and criticisms at achampa1@ithaca.edu.
#1
1) UNC
2) Pitt
3) Oklahoma
4) UConn
The consensus top four teams. UNC's win over Duke should give them the outright #1, while Pitt is clearly better than UConn (and can we STOP with the talk of Hasheem Thabeet being God in a Huskies uniform?). Oklahoma splits the two BE schools, with UConn being the most likely to drop down to a 2-seed if they lose in the CT.
#2
1) Michigan State
2) Louisville
3) Memphis
4) Wake Forest
Not much movement here, either. Wake Forest inherits the last #2 seed following Marquette's late-season schedule.
#3
1) Villanova
2) Kansas
3) Marquette
4) Duke
Not a lot of surprises here. 'Nova's tough, Kansas has had a tremendous year despite losing most of their title team from last year, Marquette isn't great but they're still good, and Duke is overrated, but still the second-best team in the ACC.
#4
1) Illinois
2) Missouri
3) Clemson
4) Gonzaga
The first two are unchanged, but Clemson slipped a little while Gonzaga soared in the bracket due to all the ranked teams going down. Consistency goes a long way, and they can validate this seeding with a win over St. Mary's in their CT.
#5
1) LSU
2) Washington
3) Syracuse
4) Arizona State
Some dangerous 5-seeds. I hate the SEC, but LSU is tough. Ditto the Pac-10 and Washington and ASU, and Syracuse is pretty much a consensus five-seed.
#6
1) Butler
2) UCLA
3) Florida State
4) Xavier
Here's where you let the chips fall. Butler's well-coached, for sure. I HATE UCLA, but I can't put them lower than here. Florida State and Xavier are two tough squads, but they've shown inconsistency at times this season.
#7
1) Purdue
2) Ohio State
3) Dayton
4) West Virginia
Two B10 teams, a second A10 team, and a late-coming Big East party-crasher. These are teams who, when on their games, could give 2-seeds MAJOR headaches. I like this group.
#8
1) Texas A+M
2) Oklahoma State
3) Kansas State
4) California
On the contrary, this group may not last long. A+M and OSU are peaking at the right time, but started slowly. KSU could well be out of the tourney with an early CT exit, and California, while consistent, is the fourth-best team in an overrated conference, which isn't worth a whole lot.
#9
1) Utah State
2) Texas
3) BYU
4) Penn State
More sleepers. Utah State's undefeated home campaign is impressive, while Texas' defense is strong, BYU is one of the best teams you haven't heard from, and Penn State is making a big push late in the underrated Big 10.
#10
1) Providence
2) South Carolina
3) Rhode Island
4) Utah
Two mid-level major teams, and two top-level mid-majors. Fitting, huh? Providence is led by a great coach in Keno Davis, SC gets my vote as the SEC's #2 team, Rhode Island is a fun team to watch, and Utah went neck-and-neck with BYU all year.
#11
1) Boston College
2) Arizona
3) Tennessee
4) Florida
These are all lower-end Big Six-conference teams. I really struggled with BC, but due to their wins over UNC and Duke, they're in. Arizona is a team nobody thought would be here, but Russ Pennell really did a great job with the program. Tennessee and Florida are both teams from the underachieving SEC, which somehow gets four bids.
#12
1) St. Mary's
2) Siena
3) Michigan
4) Northern Iowa
The ever-dangerous 12-seeds are tough. St. Mary's is led by all-world guard Patrick Mills, Siena is insanely tough when given the chance to control the tempo, Michigan has several big wins this year (and is the last at-large team in the tournament), and UNI pushed hard late to win the Mo Valley, which is a strong conference.
#13
1) VCU
2) Charleston
3) Cornell
4) Binghamton
#14
1) Buffalo
2) Arkansas Little Rock
3) Robert Morris
4) Morgan State
#15
1) E. Tennessee State
2) Weber State
3) North Dakota State
4) American
#16
1) Stephen F. Austin
2) Radford
3) Morehead State
PLAY IN) CSU Northridge/Alabama State
Conference-tournament winners.
LAST FIVE TEAMS OUT: Temple, New Mexico, Auburn, Tulsa, Niagara
#1
1) UNC
2) Pitt
3) Oklahoma
4) UConn
The consensus top four teams. UNC's win over Duke should give them the outright #1, while Pitt is clearly better than UConn (and can we STOP with the talk of Hasheem Thabeet being God in a Huskies uniform?). Oklahoma splits the two BE schools, with UConn being the most likely to drop down to a 2-seed if they lose in the CT.
#2
1) Michigan State
2) Louisville
3) Memphis
4) Wake Forest
Not much movement here, either. Wake Forest inherits the last #2 seed following Marquette's late-season schedule.
#3
1) Villanova
2) Kansas
3) Marquette
4) Duke
Not a lot of surprises here. 'Nova's tough, Kansas has had a tremendous year despite losing most of their title team from last year, Marquette isn't great but they're still good, and Duke is overrated, but still the second-best team in the ACC.
#4
1) Illinois
2) Missouri
3) Clemson
4) Gonzaga
The first two are unchanged, but Clemson slipped a little while Gonzaga soared in the bracket due to all the ranked teams going down. Consistency goes a long way, and they can validate this seeding with a win over St. Mary's in their CT.
#5
1) LSU
2) Washington
3) Syracuse
4) Arizona State
Some dangerous 5-seeds. I hate the SEC, but LSU is tough. Ditto the Pac-10 and Washington and ASU, and Syracuse is pretty much a consensus five-seed.
#6
1) Butler
2) UCLA
3) Florida State
4) Xavier
Here's where you let the chips fall. Butler's well-coached, for sure. I HATE UCLA, but I can't put them lower than here. Florida State and Xavier are two tough squads, but they've shown inconsistency at times this season.
#7
1) Purdue
2) Ohio State
3) Dayton
4) West Virginia
Two B10 teams, a second A10 team, and a late-coming Big East party-crasher. These are teams who, when on their games, could give 2-seeds MAJOR headaches. I like this group.
#8
1) Texas A+M
2) Oklahoma State
3) Kansas State
4) California
On the contrary, this group may not last long. A+M and OSU are peaking at the right time, but started slowly. KSU could well be out of the tourney with an early CT exit, and California, while consistent, is the fourth-best team in an overrated conference, which isn't worth a whole lot.
#9
1) Utah State
2) Texas
3) BYU
4) Penn State
More sleepers. Utah State's undefeated home campaign is impressive, while Texas' defense is strong, BYU is one of the best teams you haven't heard from, and Penn State is making a big push late in the underrated Big 10.
#10
1) Providence
2) South Carolina
3) Rhode Island
4) Utah
Two mid-level major teams, and two top-level mid-majors. Fitting, huh? Providence is led by a great coach in Keno Davis, SC gets my vote as the SEC's #2 team, Rhode Island is a fun team to watch, and Utah went neck-and-neck with BYU all year.
#11
1) Boston College
2) Arizona
3) Tennessee
4) Florida
These are all lower-end Big Six-conference teams. I really struggled with BC, but due to their wins over UNC and Duke, they're in. Arizona is a team nobody thought would be here, but Russ Pennell really did a great job with the program. Tennessee and Florida are both teams from the underachieving SEC, which somehow gets four bids.
#12
1) St. Mary's
2) Siena
3) Michigan
4) Northern Iowa
The ever-dangerous 12-seeds are tough. St. Mary's is led by all-world guard Patrick Mills, Siena is insanely tough when given the chance to control the tempo, Michigan has several big wins this year (and is the last at-large team in the tournament), and UNI pushed hard late to win the Mo Valley, which is a strong conference.
#13
1) VCU
2) Charleston
3) Cornell
4) Binghamton
#14
1) Buffalo
2) Arkansas Little Rock
3) Robert Morris
4) Morgan State
#15
1) E. Tennessee State
2) Weber State
3) North Dakota State
4) American
#16
1) Stephen F. Austin
2) Radford
3) Morehead State
PLAY IN) CSU Northridge/Alabama State
Conference-tournament winners.
LAST FIVE TEAMS OUT: Temple, New Mexico, Auburn, Tulsa, Niagara
Thursday, March 5, 2009
College basketball awards season
With the college basketball season winding down, it's time to look at who most deserves the hardware. Yep, it's the first-annual NCAA NutSAK Awards!
PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
Rationale: With him, OU is a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Without him, I think they're a #4 or a #5. When he went down to a concussion, a bunch of complementary players had to do a ton more to carry the team. They couldn't do it, but when he came back, the Sooners were booming again.
Sorry...: DaJuan Blair (Pitt), Tyler Hansbrough (UNC)
Not sorry...: Hasheem Thabeet (UConn), more on him in a little while
COACH OF THE YEAR: Keno Davis, Providence
Rationale: Everyone's clamoring about Bill Self and how he has Kansas contending for a Big 12 championship. He's done well, yeah, but Kansas won a national title last year and had several key role players come back. Keno Davis came in from Drake and revitalized a Providence team that had not been nationally-relevant in a decade. They've won 10 games in Big East play, and they should make the tournament as a result. It's close, yes, but give me Davis' one-season rebuild over Self's one-season reload.
Sorry: Self, Russ Pennell (Arizona)
MOST OVERRATED: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn
Rationale: Is he a great defensive player? Yes. He's 7'3", and his wingspan makes him one of the most natural shot-blockers around. However, if you call him great on offense, you lower the bar ten feet. The only offensive plays designed for him are alley-oops, and for a 7'3" guy, he is AWFULLY soft, as DaJuan Blair proved on every possession of their game a few weeks ago. That game showed he's just another cog in the UConn machine, and if I had a choice of UConn big men with weird names, I'd take a college-age Emeka Okafor over present-day Thabeet in a heartbeat.
Bill Raftery compared Thabeet to Bill Russell a few weeks ago, and I almost fell out of my chair laughing. He's going to be a lottery pick by virtue of his size and reach, but anyone expecting him to round into a force shouldn't hold their breath. He has trouble with bangers like Blair, and if he runs into Blake Griffin at any point in the NCAA's, he will be exposed once again. I see him as Samuel Dalembert, Version 2.0. He'll be a very good defensive player, but one who is hard-pressed to average ten points per game, at the next level. If Jim Calhoun is smart, he'll talk Thabeet into eating something between now and the tournament, as he REALLY needs to start filling out.
MOST UNDERRATED: Patrick Mills, PG, St. Mary's
Rationale: Remember how early in the season, people were comparing Mills and Stephen Curry? Then Mills broke his shooting hand and missed a month? In that time span, St. Mary's went from NCAA shoo-in to a team that may need to win its conference tournament, all because Mills wasn't there.
This was a guy Coach K said may be the best true point guard in the world at the Olympics last summer. And not only is a tremendous distributor, he can't be left open, as he averages 18 points per game. Yet where is the national attention Curry gets? Nowhere, because he's been hurt. Do not sleep on this team; if they get into the dance, they'll make some noise.
MOST LIKELY BIG-TIME TEAM TO GO DOWN EARLY: UCLA
Rationale: If UCLA gets a five-seed, which is looking more and more probable with every ranked team that loses, bet the house on the twelve they're playing. UCLA has truly been unimpressive this year, and they're indicative of the fact that the Pac-10 is REALLY bad this year. Washington is OK, as is Arizona State.
However, UCLA is riding on prestige at this point. Just because they're the third-best team in a traditionally-strong conference and won a ton of titles under John Wooden doesn't mean they're good this year. Nothing about them scares me, and they bring home the honors in a category no Big Six team wants to win.
(Dis)Honorable mentions: Duke, every team from the SEC
MOST LIKELY CINDERELLA TEAM: Siena
Rationale: I absolutely love the Saints. Last year, they shocked Vanderbilt before giving Villanova a game in the second round. They lost two players from that team, and everyone else is REALLY talented. They're all fast, they can shoot the lights out, and Fran McCaffery is a very underrated coach.
This isn't to say they're a TREMENDOUS team. They overscheduled, and don't have many true quality wins. However, they gave Pitt, Kansas, Tennessee, and Oklahoma State tough games, and if overestimated, they'll run a big-name team out of the gym.
MID-MAJOR CONFERENCE TO WATCH: Atlantic 10
Rationale: This conference is better than the SEC and Pac-10 this year. If it was up to me, four teams from this conference would get into the tournament: Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island, and Temple. As it stands now, two, maybe three, will. Xavier and Dayton have been ranked at times, Rhode Island has won 22 games, and Temple, led by Dionte Christmas, has ten wins in conference and is extremely gritty.
If it was up to me, I'd shift the SEC and Pac-10's automatic bids here. These teams can play, and it's time they be recognized as a premier conference after producing quality teams year after year.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
Rationale: With him, OU is a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Without him, I think they're a #4 or a #5. When he went down to a concussion, a bunch of complementary players had to do a ton more to carry the team. They couldn't do it, but when he came back, the Sooners were booming again.
Sorry...: DaJuan Blair (Pitt), Tyler Hansbrough (UNC)
Not sorry...: Hasheem Thabeet (UConn), more on him in a little while
COACH OF THE YEAR: Keno Davis, Providence
Rationale: Everyone's clamoring about Bill Self and how he has Kansas contending for a Big 12 championship. He's done well, yeah, but Kansas won a national title last year and had several key role players come back. Keno Davis came in from Drake and revitalized a Providence team that had not been nationally-relevant in a decade. They've won 10 games in Big East play, and they should make the tournament as a result. It's close, yes, but give me Davis' one-season rebuild over Self's one-season reload.
Sorry: Self, Russ Pennell (Arizona)
MOST OVERRATED: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn
Rationale: Is he a great defensive player? Yes. He's 7'3", and his wingspan makes him one of the most natural shot-blockers around. However, if you call him great on offense, you lower the bar ten feet. The only offensive plays designed for him are alley-oops, and for a 7'3" guy, he is AWFULLY soft, as DaJuan Blair proved on every possession of their game a few weeks ago. That game showed he's just another cog in the UConn machine, and if I had a choice of UConn big men with weird names, I'd take a college-age Emeka Okafor over present-day Thabeet in a heartbeat.
Bill Raftery compared Thabeet to Bill Russell a few weeks ago, and I almost fell out of my chair laughing. He's going to be a lottery pick by virtue of his size and reach, but anyone expecting him to round into a force shouldn't hold their breath. He has trouble with bangers like Blair, and if he runs into Blake Griffin at any point in the NCAA's, he will be exposed once again. I see him as Samuel Dalembert, Version 2.0. He'll be a very good defensive player, but one who is hard-pressed to average ten points per game, at the next level. If Jim Calhoun is smart, he'll talk Thabeet into eating something between now and the tournament, as he REALLY needs to start filling out.
MOST UNDERRATED: Patrick Mills, PG, St. Mary's
Rationale: Remember how early in the season, people were comparing Mills and Stephen Curry? Then Mills broke his shooting hand and missed a month? In that time span, St. Mary's went from NCAA shoo-in to a team that may need to win its conference tournament, all because Mills wasn't there.
This was a guy Coach K said may be the best true point guard in the world at the Olympics last summer. And not only is a tremendous distributor, he can't be left open, as he averages 18 points per game. Yet where is the national attention Curry gets? Nowhere, because he's been hurt. Do not sleep on this team; if they get into the dance, they'll make some noise.
MOST LIKELY BIG-TIME TEAM TO GO DOWN EARLY: UCLA
Rationale: If UCLA gets a five-seed, which is looking more and more probable with every ranked team that loses, bet the house on the twelve they're playing. UCLA has truly been unimpressive this year, and they're indicative of the fact that the Pac-10 is REALLY bad this year. Washington is OK, as is Arizona State.
However, UCLA is riding on prestige at this point. Just because they're the third-best team in a traditionally-strong conference and won a ton of titles under John Wooden doesn't mean they're good this year. Nothing about them scares me, and they bring home the honors in a category no Big Six team wants to win.
(Dis)Honorable mentions: Duke, every team from the SEC
MOST LIKELY CINDERELLA TEAM: Siena
Rationale: I absolutely love the Saints. Last year, they shocked Vanderbilt before giving Villanova a game in the second round. They lost two players from that team, and everyone else is REALLY talented. They're all fast, they can shoot the lights out, and Fran McCaffery is a very underrated coach.
This isn't to say they're a TREMENDOUS team. They overscheduled, and don't have many true quality wins. However, they gave Pitt, Kansas, Tennessee, and Oklahoma State tough games, and if overestimated, they'll run a big-name team out of the gym.
MID-MAJOR CONFERENCE TO WATCH: Atlantic 10
Rationale: This conference is better than the SEC and Pac-10 this year. If it was up to me, four teams from this conference would get into the tournament: Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island, and Temple. As it stands now, two, maybe three, will. Xavier and Dayton have been ranked at times, Rhode Island has won 22 games, and Temple, led by Dionte Christmas, has ten wins in conference and is extremely gritty.
If it was up to me, I'd shift the SEC and Pac-10's automatic bids here. These teams can play, and it's time they be recognized as a premier conference after producing quality teams year after year.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
ROL Bus: Yay for shitshows!
So the girls go to Alabama, and big news, as former Penthouse pet has been tapped as Pet of the Year. And nobody likes it. Could this be foreshadowing her exit?
Anyway, Bret has planned out the first annual Truck Stop Games. The first event features girls jumping in thousands of gallons of beer, the second is a strip-off, the third is an obstacle course. Blontourage members and Penthouse pet win, but more girls get dates, so all's well that ends well. One of the new girls breaks down, though, and she leaves after the lifestyle scares her off. The Blontourage girls dance while she's in full view, which is pretty low, but we get several cries of "I'M NOT HERE TO MAKE FRIENDS!," so I guess that comes with the territory.
The winners from the previous day go to an empty amusement park, which is admittedly really cool. Everyone throws everyone else under the bus, and the bus ride back is interesting, with a three-way catfight going on. It degenerates into the two blondes getting belligerently trashed, and giving a lesbian-ish display in ront of thousands of screaming fans. They get banished to the bus, and one of them runs out and cries on the curb. Big John, though, soothes her, and she calms down. However, as to be expected, a lot of girls are still trashed come elimination, and the speed bump girl gets sent home right away.
All in all, a pretty mailed-in episode from ROL standpoint.
Anyway, Bret has planned out the first annual Truck Stop Games. The first event features girls jumping in thousands of gallons of beer, the second is a strip-off, the third is an obstacle course. Blontourage members and Penthouse pet win, but more girls get dates, so all's well that ends well. One of the new girls breaks down, though, and she leaves after the lifestyle scares her off. The Blontourage girls dance while she's in full view, which is pretty low, but we get several cries of "I'M NOT HERE TO MAKE FRIENDS!," so I guess that comes with the territory.
The winners from the previous day go to an empty amusement park, which is admittedly really cool. Everyone throws everyone else under the bus, and the bus ride back is interesting, with a three-way catfight going on. It degenerates into the two blondes getting belligerently trashed, and giving a lesbian-ish display in ront of thousands of screaming fans. They get banished to the bus, and one of them runs out and cries on the curb. Big John, though, soothes her, and she calms down. However, as to be expected, a lot of girls are still trashed come elimination, and the speed bump girl gets sent home right away.
All in all, a pretty mailed-in episode from ROL standpoint.
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