Bracket Thoughts: South Region

POTENTIAL CINDERELLA: (7) Richmond. Again, I really, REALLY like the A10 this year. Richmond gave Temple all they could handle in the conference tourney, and they'll do the same to Villanova in the second round (much like Vanderbilt in the West, more on them later). They have sharpshooting guards and, like the other two A10 teams in the tournament, play very tough defense. This is the epitome of the pesky small team that will not go away, and I have them in the Sweet 16 for that precise reason.

Honorable mention: (12) Utah State. By seeding, they win here, but with Purdue and Texas A&M so vulnerable, people EXPECT either these guys or 13th-seeded Siena to be one of the last 16 teams remaining. I give the edge to Utah State, though. They were one of the last teams in, should have been much higher than this, and will show why on the first weekend.

MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (2) Villanova. How does a team lose 6 of their last 10, fail to record a quality win since January, yet still get a 2-seed? I'm baffled by this. Yes, Scottie Reynolds may have a claim to being the best player in the best conference in college basketball. However, the Wildcats peaked way too early. I have them losing to the Spiders in the second round, and they will certainly not make it past the round of 16.

Honorable mention: (4) Purdue. Has any 13-seed been FAVORED in the first round the way Siena is now? Enough said.

POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (1) Duke vs. (9) Louisville, second round. In a game featuring so many streaky players, the outcome could swing so many ways. Duke can obviously light it up from the outside, but Louisville's Edgar Sosa does a lot (good and bad), and Samardo Samuels could expose Duke's Brian Zoubek given the chance. I think the Blue Devils have too many weapons and prevail, but Pitino's group is probably Duke's toughest opponent in the first three rounds by leaps and bounds.

WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: (3) Baylor. This is easily the most bottom-heavy region in the bracket, and it plays into Baylor's hands. They'll have a tough second-round matchup with Notre Dame, but with the game being in New Orleans, Baylor should have a solid fanbase there. Then comes either Richmond or Nova, followed by a Duke team that has ZERO inside game. Given all the program has gone through this decade, this is a tremendous story, one that should end with a trip to the Final Four.

HOW IT HAPPENS:

(1) Duke over (16) Play-in winner
(9) Louisville over (8) California
(12) Utah State over (5) Texas A&M
(13) Siena over (4) Purdue
(6) Notre Dame over (11) Old Dominion
(3) Baylor over (14) Sam Houston State
(7) Richmond over (10) St. Mary's
(2) Villanova over (15) Robert Morris

(1) Duke over (9) Louisville
(12) Utah State over (13) Siena
(3) Baylor over (6) Notre Dame
(7) Richmond over (2) Villanova

(1) Duke over (12) Utah State
(3) Baylor over (7) Richmond

(3) Baylor over (1) Duke