POTENTIAL CINDERELLA: (11) San Diego State. I don't have an issue with many of the teams in the NCAA tournament. However, I have a BIG issue with where mid-majors were seeded, most notably the Aztecs at #11. The Mountain West was better than some major conferences this year, and SDSU won its conference tournament. I had them pegged as a 7-seed, but they got the shaft. They'll face a good but very beatable Tennessee team in the first round, and I think they're going to be motivated to prove the seeding committee wrong.
Honorable mention: (9) Northern Iowa. They weren't shafted horribly (I had them as a 7 as well), but they're a consistent group with considerable talent. Their first-round game with UNLV should be fun to watch, despite the fact that the winner gets KU in the second round.
MOST OVERSEEDED TEAM: (7) Oklahoma State. This bracket is actually pretty well-constructed in terms of ranking where the teams stood on the S-Curve, but Oklahoma State is a little overrated. Their guard play is solid, but the Big 12 is a three-team conference this year, and Oklahoma State never proved to be an elite team. I had them as a 9, and I think they'll lose a hard-fought first-round game against Georgia Tech. They'd better; a second-round Oklahoma State-Ohio State game would have fans OSU'd out by halftime.
Honorable mention: (14) Ohio. This is picking nits about a team that will get destroyed early. But how does a team with 14 losses in a bad, low-level conference get a 14-seed over other low-level teams that were more impressive? The Bobcats started the regular season 6-0, only to go less than .500 (13-14) before three straight wins in their conference tournament. This makes them that much more impressive over teams like 25-9 Vermont...how?
POTENTIAL GAME TO WATCH: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Georgetown, Sweet 16. Both teams peaked at the right times in conference tournaments that were fun to watch. I think this is an awesome matchup, but that OSU's dependence on Evan Turner will ultimately cost them. Many times, the "stand around and wait for Evan to make a play" offense nearly backfired against lesser Big 10 teams who couldn't capitalize. The Hoyas are more well-rounded, and Greg Monroe has really come into form down the stretch.
WHO WINS THE REGIONAL: Kansas. Talk about the group of death all you want, it's irrelevant. They've got 5 future NBA contributors on their starting lineup, they're experienced in big-game situations, and I think that combination wins out.
HOW IT HAPPENS:
(1) Kansas over (16) Lehigh
(9) Northern Iowa over (8) UNLV
(5) Michigan State over (12) New Mexico State
(4) Maryland over (13) Houston
(11) San Diego State over (6) Tennessee
(3) Georgetown over (14) Ohio
(10) Georgia Tech over (7) Oklahoma State
(2) Ohio State over (15) UC-Santa Barbara
(1) Kansas over (9) Northern Iowa
(5) Michigan State over (4) Maryland
(3) Georgetown over (11) San Diego State
(2) Ohio State over (10) Georgia Tech
(1) Kansas over (5) Michigan State
(3) Georgetown over (2) Ohio State
(1) Kansas over (3) Georgetown
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