I'll be posting mock NFL drafts periodically up until draft day in April. Stars by teams represent playoff-bound squads, and any player who hasn't said they're staying in school is eligible for the simple purpose of making it easier on yours truly.
Detroit trades down from #1 to #2, giving St. Louis the top overall pick. Here goes...
1. St. Louis (from Detroit): Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Rationale: St. Louis needs a new QB, and they pull out all the stops to get the best one available.
2. Detroit (from St. Louis): Malcolm Jenkins, CB, OSU
Rationale: If you're Detroit and you take a lineman at this point, you're nuts. A lineman will not solve your problems the way other top-tier prospects will down the road. Jenkins is a safe pick, even this highly, and he's going to be a true shut-down corner.
3. Kansas City: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
Rationale: KC's pass rush has been anemic since their bonehead trading of Jared Allen. Tamba Hali isn't horrible, but he needs a marquee rusher alongside him, and Orakpo fits the bill.
4. Seattle: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Rationale: Seattle could use a running back, but none are worth taking this highly. Andre Smith could go here, but his Sugar Bowl suspension hurts his stock. Oher is the immediate beneficiary of that, and he goes here in an attempt to fill the hole left by Steve Hutchinson that hasn't been filled for several seasons.
5. Cleveland: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Rationale: Cleveland's defense is atrocious, plain and simple. If Jenkins is still available, they could grab him here, but Maualuga is the best defensive player left. He's the total package, and can stuff the run as well as drop back in coverage.
6. Cincinnati: James Laurinaitis, LB, OSU
Rationale: This is an interesting pick. The Bengals could be in the mix to trade up to #1, as it's not clear whether Palmer will fully recover and Fitzpatrick is NOT a starting quarterback. Assuming they don't, the hometown boy would make a nice fit on defense.
7. Oakland: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Rationale: Al Davis loves star power, and there isn't a more exciting player in the draft than Crabtree. He fills a big need in Oakland, and could give the rocket arm of JaMarcus Russell a great target to throw to.
8. Jacksonville: Taylor Mays, S, USC
Rationale: Jacksonville's probably fuming after falling one pick short of giving David Garrard the deep target he desperately needs. If they don't trade up to get Crabtree, they fill another need in their secondary with Mays, who is clearly the best safety in the draft.
9. Green Bay: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Rationale: Curry's stock has shot up as of late, and with the two other marquee linebackers off the board, he's the best fit here. Green Bay's defense couldn't hold a lead to save their lives, and Curry should step in right away to help patch it up.
10. San Francisco: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Rationale: SF needs to bolster their line. They finished the season strongly, but they need to protect their quarterback, as well as star running back Frank Gore. Smith's stock has slumped, but he's still the best fit here.
11. Buffalo: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
Rationale: Aaron Schobel's been hurt, but there's still no excuse for the backups being THIS horrendous. Johnson's a freak at 6'7", 265, and should disrupt plenty of plays.
12. Denver: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Rationale: Chris Wells and/or Javon Ringer could also go here, but Moreno's more consistent than either of them. Denver desperately needs a franchise running back to usher in the post-Shanahan era, and Moreno's got the talent to leap up the depth chart right away.
13. Washington: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Rationale: Tough to say where Snyder and Co. will go here, as they really don't have many needs. Monroe is the best player available, and is an upgrade from some of their current linemen.
14. New Orleans: William Moore, S, Missouri
Rationale: Moore didn't have a great senior year, but he's still the best defensive back available. This comes as good news to a team that DESPERATELY needs speed in the secondary.
15. Houston: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Rationale: Smith's stock has soared thanks to scouts believing he may have the best feet of any lineman in the draft. Houston finally got some offensive momentum this year, and Smith can only help the situation.
16. San Diego *: Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Rationale: San Diego's offense is electric, but their defense put them in a huge hole early this season. Brown's a tremendous pass rusher with a good nose for the football, and he's a good fit here.
17. New York Jets: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Rationale: Blame Favre for their collapse if you want, but it's not like he was throwing to Jerry Rice. Coles isn't getting younger, Cotchery, while solid, isn't a #1, and Dustin Keller's still a few years away from reaching his potential. Heyward-Bey has gears, and is a true gamebreaker on offense.
18. Chicago: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Rationale: Harvin's got tremendous speed, and him and Hester on the same side spells trouble for secondaries, even if it IS Kyle Orton throwing the ball.
19. Tampa Bay: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
Rationale: Jeff Garcia's career seems to be winding down, and it's time to look for his replacement. Stafford isn't great, and I'm not sure how good he'll be without a marquee running back alongside him, but TB thrives on keeping pressure off the QB, so it's a good fit.
20. Detroit (from Dallas): Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida
Rationale: Here, Detroit takes a linebacker to put alongside future star Ernie Sims. Those two and Jenkins should grow together, forming the foundation of a solid defense down the road.
21. Arizona *: Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
Rationale: Chris Wells makes sense here, too, but the Cards already have a power runner in Tim Hightower. Ringer should be the dash to Hightower's smash, and with both being young, they've got time to mesh together.
22. Philadelphia *: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Rationale: Philly will probably go lineman-lineman with their two picks in the first round, but that's a stupid way to go when you have more urgent needs elsewhere. Donovan McNabb has nobody to throw to save for DeSean Jackson, and adding Maclin gives opposing secondaries another young deep threat to worry about.
23. Minnesota *: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Rationale: How much do you trust Tarvaris Jackson? Answer: You don't. Tebow's got some flaws, but there's no denying his ability to lead a team, and he's got tons of ways to beat defenses.
24. New England: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Rationale: NE could go linebacker as well, but there aren't many big-name ones to speak of. Davis is the second-best CB in the draft behind Jenkins, and he should develop very nicely.
25. Atlanta *: Sen'Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
Rationale: If Atlanta wants to build upon their success this year, they need to improve their run defense. Marks was the lone good part of Auburn's terrible season, and he'll be a very good pro.
26. Miami *: D.J. Moore, CB/S, Vanderbilt
Rationale: Moore is the best corner left, and Miami desperately needs to improve their pass defense. Like Atlanta, their pick is a necessary, need-based pick for a team looking to stay at a high level after struggling in 2007.
27. Baltimore *: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Rationale: Baltimore needs a target for Joe Flacco to throw to. Ideally, there'd be a wideout here, but Pettigrew is the next best thing. He's a good blocker as well as a good receiver, and he'll fit in well with the ball-control offense.
28. Philadelphia (from Carolina)*: Ciron Black, OT, LSU
Rationale: NOW you take the lineman. Philly's line isn't getting younger, and Black is the best player available for a team that could use him.
29. Indianapolis *: Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
Rationale: Indy's run defense, as usual, is terrible. Cody doesn't have much experience, but that means more room to grow in the long run. He'll be a good one for a perennial contender.
30. New York Giants *: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Rationale: If Brandon Jacobs leaves, there will be, excuse the pun, a Giant-sized hole in the backfield. Ward and Bradshaw are similar backs, but Wells provides a bonafide short-yardage and power threat to change pace.
31. Pittsburgh *: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Rationale: This team's one hole is on the O-line. They may very well trade up to get a marquee tackle, but for now, Robinson is the pick. He's by far the best guard in the draft, and is easily the best lineman available at this point.
32. Tennessee *: BJ Raji, DT, Boston College
Rationale: If they don't resign Albert Haynesworth, they could use another talented nose tackle. I could also see them taking a QB if a good one slips to here, but for now, Raji's the pick,
Saturday, January 3, 2009
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