Saturday, January 17, 2009

AFC/NFC Championship Games

We're down to the NFL's final four, and after tomorrow, we'll know who will be playing on the biggest stage in two weeks. Here are my picks after going 2-2 against the spread last weekend.

AFC: BALTIMORE RAVENS (+6) vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

These two have a pretty bloody rivalry, especially this year with the Santonio Holmes "touchdown" catch. They play similar styles of smash-mouth, ball-control football, and both defenses are among the best football fans have seen in quite some time. It should be tremendous fun to watch.

However, there is NO way Baltimore should be getting 6 points. Yes, they're on the road, but remember that this is Heinz Field, which has 57 levels of how bad it can get in the winter. Last week, that logic bit me in the rear end, but this week, with a chance of snow and VERY cold weather following a game being played there last week, the surface could play a big role in keeping this one close. I get that Terrell Suggs is questionable, but he said he'll play and I think he will.

They've seen each other twice, with Pittsburgh winning both games by a combined total of seven points. This game should provide a similar outcome, with the Steelers emerging victorious after a sixty-minute war.

FINAL SCORE: Steelers 17, Ravens 13

NFC: ARIZONA CARDINALS (+4) vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

This is another fantastic contest, and one I HATE from a betting standpoint. The Cardinals put together a defensive masterpiece last week, frustrating Jake Delhomme to no end the same way they flustered Matt Ryan. They get a better QB across the line of scrimmage in Donovan McNabb this week, but Brian Westbrook is nursing a bum leg. Like Suggs, I think Westbrook will play, but when a lot of his game is built around speed and evasion, he won't be as effective as he normally is.

This is where McNabb needs to step up and throw the ball. Due to Andy Reid's stupidity in constantly drafting people as big as he is, McNabb has DeSean Jackson, a past-his-prime Kevin Curtis, and not much else to work with. Also, he'll have to combat Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who is quickly becoming a top-notch defensive back like his brother, Antonio.

The Eagles do have a good defense, and I don't think the Cards will be able to run as well as they did against Atlanta and Carolina. Also, unlike Carolina, the Eagles won't hesitate to put two guys on Larry Fitzgerald, as they did on Thanksgiving when they cruised to a win after 'Zona came in off a short week and traveling across the country. However, these problems can be solved if Kurt Warner brings his A-game, which he usually does in high-pressure situations, and I don't know if Philly's pending issues can simply be solved by McNabb playing well.

That's not to say the Eagles can't win on the road, and I won't be completely shocked if they do. However, I think this will be a close game no matter who wins, and I'll pick the underdog to cover.

FINAL SCORE: Cardinals 28, Eagles 27

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