NFL Divisional Playoffs: The SAK Crystal Ball

Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (+3)

Tough game because both teams are so much alike. They pound the ball, run the clock down, and win the game with defense. Ultimately, this game comes down to which offense you hate less. Tennessee has two very good running backs, but a horrid receiving corps and Kerry Collins, who could very well self-destruct at any point. Baltimore, on the other hand, has no receiving corps, a rookie QB in Joe Flacco, and the running back duo of Leron McClain and Willis McGahee, who seem to do nothing for three quarters before breaking off massive jaunts in the final stanza.

All told, I like the Titans to win the game, but the Ravens to cover the spread. I think Tennessee's better at what they do, and Kerry Collins is smart enough to keep the ball away from Ed Reed whenever possible. Look for them to be up 21-10 or so, but watch out for Baltimore to come back in the fourth quarter, which is when they play their best football.

FINAL SCORE: Tennessee 21, Baltimore 20


Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals (+10)

Kudos to Arizona for figuring out Matt Ryan and getting a big win at home in the first round. Their pass rush was solid, and Kurt Warner came through with a nice performance. They now face a Carolina team that some say could be Super Bowl-bound, and for good reason. They've got a good mix of run and pass, and their defense, while unspectacular, seems to do the job week in and week out.

That said, ten points is an AWFUL lot to give away to a team whose pass rush looked as good as Arizona's did last week. If Carolina had a better quarterback under center, maybe I go the other way on this. But Jake Delhomme is getting up there in age, has never been a GREAT quarterback, and may have some trouble dealing with the blitz packages that clipped the wings of the Atlanta Falcons last week. I do think Carolina wins due to their run game, but it won't be easy.

FINAL SCORE: Panthers 24, Cardinals 20


New York Giants (-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

I hate this game. The Giants have been overrated without Plaxico Burress, and the Eagles haven't been able to move the ball against ANYBODY for several weeks, save for their game against, you guessed it, the Giants in Week 15. Was that a great effort by a motivated Philly squad, or a lazy effort by New York in a game they didn't need?

I'll say both, and because of that, I'll take the G-Men. Their defense should step up and wreak havoc against the Eagles, who escaped from Minnesota with a win after their offense couldn't exploit a banged-up Vikings defense save for one long touchdown pass. Ultimately, I think New York's running attack sends their division rivals home.

FINAL SCORE: Giants 21, Eagles 13


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers (+6)

In his column this week, Bill Simmons raised a heck of a point. Why would ANYONE feel comfortable taking a six-point favorite at Heinz Field, which has been one of the sloppiest, slowest playing surfaces in the NFL? Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a concussion, and the Chargers are riding high after their win over Indianapolis (yet again, I have my qualms about the officiating in that game, which can be read here: http://sakcritic.blogspot.com/2009/01/nutsak-rant-unofficial-review-of-nfls.html ).

Does this mean I think the Chargers pull the upset? Ultimately, no. The probable loss of LaDanian Tomlinson will hurt them, despite the considerable ability of backup Darren Sproles. LDT is their leader, and without him on the field, I think Pittsburgh's defense gets a big confidence boost. It's a close game, and definitely closer than oddsmakers think it is, but in the end, Pittsburgh emerges victorious.

FINAL SCORE: Steelers 16, Chargers 14